Let's assume for a moment that this report is true. Which, granted, is a huge leap given the incredibly poor quality of reporting going on. Still, for the sake of argument, let's
give this a pass for the moment.
When trying to solve a locational crime, like a murder, there are generally 2 concepts heavily discussed: Motive and Opportunity. While this may not exactly be a murderous occurence, the manor of investigation likely has some similarities. So, let's start by discussing motive.
- Do any of the Patriots have a motive?
First of all, running game, 'nuf said. Second, as I understand things, a deflated ball allows for easier gripping and softer catching but at the cost of throwing accuracy. Why would any quarterback want to sacrifice accuracy for any reason? While you cannot rule this out, it seems like a pretty foolish tradeoff for any of the Patriots to make. As Belichick stated in his presser, as we as Pats fans well know, those guys play in all conditions and with all conditions of the ball. I'm sure they wouldn't even think to bother with something risky like this given that they practice with normal footballs every. single. day. Brady, from what we know of him, is not the kind of guy to put his needs ahead of the team. Other team members are not likely to go against what Brady deems acceptable for his footballs. Perhaps some misguided low-man-on-the-totem-pole could have been involved for misguided reasons. This is possible, but not likely.
- Do any of the Colts have a motive?
Given that lowering the PSI affects ball accuracy, sure, the Colts have a
pony in this race, too. It could be that the Colts thought the only way to win this game was interceptions. Or alternatively they simply sought to sully the reputation of the Patriots franchise for funzies. I find that far less likely but cannot be ruled out. Given that this could have been malicious intent from the top, or simply some misguided scrub at the bottom rung trying to "help" his team
luck their way into victory. Yeah, its possible but not likely. Still, stranger things have happened.
- Could someone outside of these 2 organizations have a vested interest in the outcome of this game?
Sure. Let's name a few:
- Anyone with a large bet or financial interest on the game
- misguided fans of either team
- someone with a vendetta against the Pats or Colts (possibly inside the league, possibly outside the league)
- someone from the media trying to stir the pot and make a name for himself (*cough*Mort*cough*).
Now we've come to opportunity. When it comes to opportunity, it really seems like almost no one realistically has a way to deflate a football without being recorded doing it. Given all the cameras, I am somewhat at a loss here. However, since we are assuming this report to be true for the sake of this exercise, we should assume a person was able to affect the balls off camera.
It seems to me that the first people to regard with suspicion would be the Patriots ball boy, the equipment manager of the Patriots, and the referees. Any of these people could have been bribed to carry out the wishes of the briber. After those people, I'm not really sure anyone has realistic access that wouldn't have raised suspicion. But neither can I rule it out since it is nearly as outlandish as the primary conclusion.
I would like to point out that just because the ball boy and the equipment manager are in the Patriots employ, it does not mandate that their actions were at the behest of any individual within the Patriots organization. The same is true for the referees in this game. Just because they are employed by the league doesn't mean their actions, either in part or in whole, were in any way sanctioned by the league.
The reality here is we have no information about opportunity because the NFL has no intention of providing any insight into their investigation for quite some time. It is my sincere hope that the NFL delivers an unbiased report of their findings in this matter. Given that they do have a vested interest in the outcome, I recognize that the chances of this are small, particularly given that every NFL appointed ref is a prime suspect. In the meantime, the Patriots are going to continue to
take this on the chin.
TL;DR Anyone could have done this. We have no real information. Also, bad puns.