The 2014 Mock draft Thread.

[mayoclinic]

Draft


*Trade QB Ryan Mallett to Houston for 2(33)*
I know is this unlikely but it’s a mock draft. Mallett to Minnesota for #40 is also another option.


1 (29). NT- Louis Nix III- ND
It’s not secret I love this big guy, I think he is an elite, top 10 talent. He will fall because of injury and the lack of demand for NT’s but he will be a steal. Reminds me so much of a young Vince Wilfork
Louis Nix III- Draft Breakdown


* TRADE 2(33) + 4(126) to SF for 2(61) + 3(77) +3(94)*
Mike Mayock said this is deepest draft for a decade and I want to take advantage of that. SF has a ton of picks and can afford to be aggressive and move up here.


2(61). TE- Austin Seferian-Jenkins- Washington (Troy Niklas)
Late round 2/early round 3 is where I would target a TE. ASJ seems to be dropping lately and there is a chance he could make it to #61. If he isn’t here though I wouldn’t be disappointed with Niklas. I actually like Niklas better as a prospect but the concussion thing scares the hell out of me.
ASJ- Draft Breakdown


2(62). C- Marcus Martin- USC (Weston Richburg/Travis Swanson)
OTG and Mayo have sold me, Martin is now my #1 C target in this draft. I love his combination of athleticism and power, especially in the run game. Once again I wouldn’t be disappointed with having to settle for Richburh or Swanson.
Marcus Martin- Draft Breakdown


3(77). DL- Dominique Easley- Florida (Will Sutton)
I really wanted Aaron Donald but he is rising and might not make it to #29 and I like Nix a little more. Easley isn’t a bad consolation prize. We need more pressure from the interior DL and Easley can provide that. He might be a one gap penetrator but I think there is room on the roster for a playmaker of his calibre. He has a lot of baggage in terms of injury having torn both ACLs in the past 3 years but early/mid 3rd round sounds about right to me. I would also settle for Will Sutton but he would need to drop back to his 2012 weight.
Dominique Easley- Draft Breakdown


* TRADE 3(93) to Jax for 4(101) + 5(138)*
* TRADE 3(94) to Minn for 4 (104) +5(136)*
Lots of depth, move on back and get similar rated players and accumulate picks


4(101). TE- Xavier Grimble- USC
A double dip at TE. He isn’t a move TE like some people want but I prefer traditional TE’s that can block. Grimble does have plenty of athletic upside though and could be a terrific complimentary pass catcher in the NFL.
Xavier Grimble- Draft Breakdown


4(104). CB- Pierre Desir- Lindenwood
Big, long and athletic outside CB that has a lot of potential to develop. I like him as a special teamer and #5 CB to give him time to develop into a quality outside CB.
Pierre Desir- Draft Breakdown


5(136). WR- Devin Street- Pitt
My favourite mid-round WR, I think Street will fall because he won’t test out great athletically. Personally I couldn’t care less about what he does in a t-shirt and shorts, I love what he can do on the field. He’s a tall and long WR with a huge catch radius, soft hands and fantastic body control, exactly what I look for in an outside WR. He works the entire field and could develop into a really solid contributor.
Devin Street- Draft Breakdown


5(138). QB- Aaron Murray- Georgia
SEC QB with lots of experience, a good arm and leadership qualities. Exactly the kind of guy I want sitting and learning behind Brady.
Aaron Murray- Draft Breakdown


6(182). S- Vinnie Sunseri- Alabama
I’ve always liked Sunseri and he has a knack for making big plays in critical moments. He’s coming off an injury so he could be a candidate to sit for a year to get 100% healthy, but if he is healthy I think at worst he would compete with Ebner as a special teamer. I think he can do more than that though and be a rotational S in the NFL.
Vinnie Sunseri- Draft Breakdown


6(190). CB- Aaron Colvin- Oklahoma
I am sensing a trend. I love taking a chance with late round picks on formerly highly regarded players with injury concerns and Colvin offers as much upside as just about anyone at this stage. Put him on IR for a year and have him start fresh in 2015.
Aaron Colvin- Draft Breakdown


6c. FB- Trey Millard- Oklahoma
An early binky of mine that I won’t let go. The most versatile player in the draft that is going to be a steal because of injury. Perhaps a redshirt candidate to get him 100% healthy before trying to fit him into the offense but he is going to be a weapon. The only comparison in the NFL is Marcel Reece.
Trey Millard- Draft Breakdown


6c. OG- Spencer Long- Nebraska
Another guy falling because of injury, Long could have been a day 2 pick before getting hurt. He’s a former walk on that worked his way up to being one of the best O-lineman in the Big 10, so you know he has a good work ethic and drive. I love those kinds of players.
Spencer Long- Draft Breakdown


7. OG- Chris Burnette- Georgia
I’ve got to give credit to Snake Eyes for introducing me to Burnette. A veteran SEC OG that has work to do in pass protection but he sure can run block. He is really athletic and gets to the second level better than just about any OG in this draft. If he can improve his pass blocking he has a chance at being an NFL OG. He is so good blocking downfield and getting to the second level I joked that he could be a 305lb FB.
Chris Burnette- Draft Breakdown

Target UDFA’s

S- Nick Williams- North Alabama
If you want a Kam Chancellor type safety this is your guy. I wouldn’t have a problem with drafting him.
Nick Williams- Hudl

QB- Dustin Vaughn- West Texas A&M
This guy has an absolute CANNON!
Dustin Vaughn- Draft Breakdown

MLB-Max Bullough- Michigan State
Still don’t know why he was suspended for breaking team rules so there is some character concerns there, but the fact that his teammates have come out and support him leads me to believe its not too serious. He was the heart and soul of a terrific Michigan State defense and I think his instincts, passion and intelligence will make him an NFL MLB.
Max Bullough- Draft Breakdown


OT- Cornelius Lucas- Kansas State
DE/TE- Larry Webster- Bloomsburg
DT- Zach Kerr- Delaware
RB- Damian Williams- Oklahoma
QB- Keith Price- Washington

- ASJ / Troy Niklas at 61. Check.
- Marcus Martin at 62. Check.
- Dominque Easley at 77. In my dreams.

Those are 3 great picks, and if things fell that way, I'd be cheering. Some thoughts on the rest:

1. I want to add more speed and versatility at all 3 levels of the defense. You've done that up front with Easley, but I don't see anything at the 2nd level. I'd love to see the Pats take someone like Ryan Shazier at 29, or trade back and get Christian Jones.

2. I'm not wild about Nix at 29. The knee issue scares me, and I'd rather pick up Justin Ellis later.

3. I like Xavier Grimble, but I'd rather go with Richard Rodgers at 101 if we got one of ASJ/Niklas.

4. Pierre Desir is a nice pick, though I'd probably go with Antone Exum.

5. Aaron Colvin is fine. I also like Dontae Johnson.

6. I'd take a moon shot on Chris Boyd from Vanderbilt in the late roudns over Devin Street. Not impressed with Street's explosiveness or ability to create separation.

My variant of your draft:

- Trade 29 to Minnesota for 40 and 72.

40. TE: ASJ or Troy Niklas.
61. LB: Marcus Smith or Christian Jones.
62. OC: Marcus Martin.
72. DT: Dominique Easley.
77. DE: Aaron Lynch.
101. DB: Antone Exum.
104. TE: Richard Rodgers or Xavier Grimble.
136. DT: Justin Ellis.

 

[Kontradiction]

Draft


*Trade QB Ryan Mallett to Houston for 2(33)*
I know is this unlikely but it’s a mock draft. Mallett to Minnesota for #40 is also another option.


1 (29). NT- Louis Nix III- ND
It’s not secret I love this big guy, I think he is an elite, top 10 talent. He will fall because of injury and the lack of demand for NT’s but he will be a steal. Reminds me so much of a young Vince Wilfork
Louis Nix III- Draft Breakdown


* TRADE 2(33) + 4(126) to SF for 2(61) + 3(77) +3(94)*
Mike Mayock said this is deepest draft for a decade and I want to take advantage of that. SF has a ton of picks and can afford to be aggressive and move up here.


2(61). TE- Austin Seferian-Jenkins- Washington (Troy Niklas)
Late round 2/early round 3 is where I would target a TE. ASJ seems to be dropping lately and there is a chance he could make it to #61. If he isn’t here though I wouldn’t be disappointed with Niklas. I actually like Niklas better as a prospect but the concussion thing scares the hell out of me.
ASJ- Draft Breakdown


2(62). C- Marcus Martin- USC (Weston Richburg/Travis Swanson)
OTG and Mayo have sold me, Martin is now my #1 C target in this draft. I love his combination of athleticism and power, especially in the run game. Once again I wouldn’t be disappointed with having to settle for Richburh or Swanson.
Marcus Martin- Draft Breakdown


3(77). DL- Dominique Easley- Florida (Will Sutton)
I really wanted Aaron Donald but he is rising and might not make it to #29 and I like Nix a little more. Easley isn’t a bad consolation prize. We need more pressure from the interior DL and Easley can provide that. He might be a one gap penetrator but I think there is room on the roster for a playmaker of his calibre. He has a lot of baggage in terms of injury having torn both ACLs in the past 3 years but early/mid 3rd round sounds about right to me. I would also settle for Will Sutton but he would need to drop back to his 2012 weight.
Dominique Easley- Draft Breakdown


* TRADE 3(93) to Jax for 4(101) + 5(138)*
* TRADE 3(94) to Minn for 4 (104) +5(136)*
Lots of depth, move on back and get similar rated players and accumulate picks


4(101). TE- Xavier Grimble- USC
A double dip at TE. He isn’t a move TE like some people want but I prefer traditional TE’s that can block. Grimble does have plenty of athletic upside though and could be a terrific complimentary pass catcher in the NFL.
Xavier Grimble- Draft Breakdown


4(104). CB- Pierre Desir- Lindenwood
Big, long and athletic outside CB that has a lot of potential to develop. I like him as a special teamer and #5 CB to give him time to develop into a quality outside CB.
Pierre Desir- Draft Breakdown


5(136). WR- Devin Street- Pitt
My favourite mid-round WR, I think Street will fall because he won’t test out great athletically. Personally I couldn’t care less about what he does in a t-shirt and shorts, I love what he can do on the field. He’s a tall and long WR with a huge catch radius, soft hands and fantastic body control, exactly what I look for in an outside WR. He works the entire field and could develop into a really solid contributor.
Devin Street- Draft Breakdown


5(138). QB- Aaron Murray- Georgia
SEC QB with lots of experience, a good arm and leadership qualities. Exactly the kind of guy I want sitting and learning behind Brady.
Aaron Murray- Draft Breakdown


6(182). S- Vinnie Sunseri- Alabama
I’ve always liked Sunseri and he has a knack for making big plays in critical moments. He’s coming off an injury so he could be a candidate to sit for a year to get 100% healthy, but if he is healthy I think at worst he would compete with Ebner as a special teamer. I think he can do more than that though and be a rotational S in the NFL.
Vinnie Sunseri- Draft Breakdown


6(190). CB- Aaron Colvin- Oklahoma
I am sensing a trend. I love taking a chance with late round picks on formerly highly regarded players with injury concerns and Colvin offers as much upside as just about anyone at this stage. Put him on IR for a year and have him start fresh in 2015.
Aaron Colvin- Draft Breakdown


6c. FB- Trey Millard- Oklahoma
An early binky of mine that I won’t let go. The most versatile player in the draft that is going to be a steal because of injury. Perhaps a redshirt candidate to get him 100% healthy before trying to fit him into the offense but he is going to be a weapon. The only comparison in the NFL is Marcel Reece.
Trey Millard- Draft Breakdown


6c. OG- Spencer Long- Nebraska
Another guy falling because of injury, Long could have been a day 2 pick before getting hurt. He’s a former walk on that worked his way up to being one of the best O-lineman in the Big 10, so you know he has a good work ethic and drive. I love those kinds of players.
Spencer Long- Draft Breakdown


7. OG- Chris Burnette- Georgia
I’ve got to give credit to Snake Eyes for introducing me to Burnette. A veteran SEC OG that has work to do in pass protection but he sure can run block. He is really athletic and gets to the second level better than just about any OG in this draft. If he can improve his pass blocking he has a chance at being an NFL OG. He is so good blocking downfield and getting to the second level I joked that he could be a 305lb FB.
Chris Burnette- Draft Breakdown

Target UDFA’s

S- Nick Williams- North Alabama
If you want a Kam Chancellor type safety this is your guy. I wouldn’t have a problem with drafting him.
Nick Williams- Hudl

QB- Dustin Vaughn- West Texas A&M
This guy has an absolute CANNON!
Dustin Vaughn- Draft Breakdown

MLB-Max Bullough- Michigan State
Still don’t know why he was suspended for breaking team rules so there is some character concerns there, but the fact that his teammates have come out and support him leads me to believe its not too serious. He was the heart and soul of a terrific Michigan State defense and I think his instincts, passion and intelligence will make him an NFL MLB.
Max Bullough- Draft Breakdown


OT- Cornelius Lucas- Kansas State
DE/TE- Larry Webster- Bloomsburg
DT- Zach Kerr- Delaware
RB- Damian Williams- Oklahoma
QB- Keith Price- Washington



*Notes
I know the Mallett trade is unlikely but it’s a mock draft. If we weren’t able to make the trade I would follow a similar plan, but instead of trading down from 33 I would trade down from 29 for a similar return, minus giving up our 4th. Then instead of Nix in the 1st I would target NT- Justin Ellis in the late 4th and keep everything else similar. This would also be my approach if Nix, Hageman or Donald are all gone by #29.

I know a lot of people will think this is far too many picks, but I’m not too concerned. There are a number of players coming off injuries that could be NFI/PUP/IR candidates. I think this draft would add depth and competition to a number of positions and put us in a position to build the best team possible. I would expect all of the guys in the top 5 rounds to make the team and anything after that is a bonus. The chances of 6th and 7th rounders panning out aren’t great so why not spread the risk around and take a few more chances.

One idea that I have been tossing around that I know won’t be popular is trading away our 2015 1st round pick for a 2nd in 2014. This is such a strong draft with a record number of underclassman declaring including RS Sophomores and I have a hard time seeing next year’s draft being anywhere near as strong. I think there is a decent chance that someone we have a 1st round grade on could make it to the mid-2nd round, in which case I wouldn’t have a problem making that trade. If someone like David Yankey, Ra'Shede Hageman or Bashaud Breeland are sitting there I would pull the trigger. St Louis at 44 seems like an ideal trading partner because they already have a lot of picks and are almost certain to add more with a trade down from #2. If they trade down and add an additional high 2nd they might like the idea of turning their 2nd into a future 1st.

You had me until Sunseri. Otherwise a very solid draft. I'm not as high on Murray as others, but for where the pick is made, I wouldn't mind bringing him in and trying to develop the gunslinger mentality that he gets in the crunch out of him. I think we would need to do more at SS than the two prospects you mentioned, though. Otherwise, it's very good. Solid job, sir.

 

[everlong]

Well, I'm OK with McCullers, Richburg, and Savage. I don't know what universe Fiedorowicz is Gronk insurance, but it's not this one....maybe Hoo-man insurance.

Totally agree on Fiedorowicz. I don't know where the analysts are getting his 3rd round grade is coming from .

 

[kennyb]

1. Trade down for high 2nd and high 4th
trade Mallett for Houston's #3


2a. ASJ TE
2b. Kyle Van Noy LB
3a. trade for lower 3rd and 5th
3a. Bitonio G/T
3b. EJ Gaines CB
4. Weston Richburg C
4. Deandre Coleman DT
5. Aaron Colvin CB
6. Cody Latimer WR
6b. Gator Hoskins TE/FB

 

[Kontradiction]

Totally agree on Fiedorowicz. I don't know where the analysts are getting his 3rd round grade is coming from .

I've seen quite a few websites mock him to the Pats as well.

 

[ripatsfan91]

Definitely need Interior Line, TE, DT, and maybe a LB or Safety. Barr has been a name mentioned whose stock could seriously drop on draft day. If he is available at 29 would you take him?

I see a lot of solid picks that could be made in the second round and third rounds.

I would love to come away with a draft class of:
su'a-filo/gabe jackson
troy nicklas/ASJ
Christian Jones
Bryan Stork
Antone Exum
Colt Lyerla

This is assuming we bring Kelly back and add a free agent like Arthur Jones. Get Wilfork to extend or walk. Also add a veteran DE who can add rotational depth for Chandler and Nink, like Will Smith/Tyson Jackson.

QB: Brady, Mallet

HB: Ridley, Blount, Vereen, McGuffie

WR: Dobson, Edelman, Amendola, Boyce, Thompkins, Slater

TE: Gronk, Niklas/ASJ, Lyerla, Mark Harrison, Hooman

Starting Oline: Solder, Mankins, Stork or Connolly, Sua'-Filo/Jackson, Vollmer. Cannon and Svitek return as well.

Starting Dline (assuming Wilfork isn't ready to be full time player): Chandler Jones, Art Jones, Siliga/Kelly, Ninkovich. With Wilfork, Chris Jones, Armstead, Will Smith and Buchannan rotating through.

LBs Collins, Hightower, Mayo. Dane Fletcher, Beauharanais, and Christian Jones providing depth.

CBs: Talib, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington, Green

Safeties: McCourty, Gregory, Exum, Ebner

 

[Kontradiction]

Definitely need Interior Line, TE, DT, and maybe a LB or Safety. Barr has been a name mentioned whose stock could seriously drop on draft day. If he is available at 29 would you take him?

I see a lot of solid picks that could be made in the second round and third rounds.

I would love to come away with a draft class of:
su'a-filo/gabe jackson
troy nicklas/ASJ
Christian Jones
Bryan Stork
Antone Exum
Colt Lyerla

This is assuming we bring Kelly back and add a free agent like Arthur Jones. Get Wilfork to extend or walk. Also add a veteran DE who can add rotational depth for Chandler and Nink, like Will Smith/Tyson Jackson.

QB: Brady, Mallet

HB: Ridley, Blount, Vereen, McGuffie

WR: Dobson, Edelman, Amendola, Boyce, Thompkins, Slater

TE: Gronk, Niklas/ASJ, Lyerla, Mark Harrison, Hooman

Starting Oline: Solder, Mankins, Stork or Connolly, Sua'-Filo/Jackson, Vollmer. Cannon and Svitek return as well.

Starting Dline (assuming Wilfork isn't ready to be full time player): Chandler Jones, Art Jones, Siliga/Kelly, Ninkovich. With Wilfork, Chris Jones, Armstead, Will Smith and Buchannan rotating through.

LBs Collins, Hightower, Mayo. Dane Fletcher, Beauharanais, and Christian Jones providing depth.

CBs: Talib, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington, Green

Safeties: McCourty, Gregory, Exum, Ebner

I wouldn't touch Lyria with a ten foot pole duct taped to another ten foot pole and wrapped in plastic. Outside of that, I would be fine with this.

 

[ashley]

Definitely need Interior Line, TE, DT, and maybe a LB or Safety. Barr has been a name mentioned whose stock could seriously drop on draft day. If he is available at 29 would you take him?

I see a lot of solid picks that could be made in the second round and third rounds.

I would love to come away with a draft class of:
su'a-filo/gabe jackson
troy nicklas/ASJ
Christian Jones
Bryan Stork
Antone Exum
Colt Lyerla

This is assuming we bring Kelly back and add a free agent like Arthur Jones. Get Wilfork to extend or walk. Also add a veteran DE who can add rotational depth for Chandler and Nink, like Will Smith/Tyson Jackson.

QB: Brady, Mallet

HB: Ridley, Blount, Vereen, McGuffie

WR: Dobson, Edelman, Amendola, Boyce, Thompkins, Slater

TE: Gronk, Niklas/ASJ, Lyerla, Mark Harrison, Hooman

Starting Oline: Solder, Mankins, Stork or Connolly, Sua'-Filo/Jackson, Vollmer. Cannon and Svitek return as well.

Starting Dline (assuming Wilfork isn't ready to be full time player): Chandler Jones, Art Jones, Siliga/Kelly, Ninkovich. With Wilfork, Chris Jones, Armstead, Will Smith and Buchannan rotating through.

LBs Collins, Hightower, Mayo. Dane Fletcher, Beauharanais, and Christian Jones providing depth.

CBs: Talib, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington, Green

Safeties: McCourty, Gregory, Exum, Ebner

I like your draft, it would definitely give us upgrades on both sides of the ball. I was under the assumption that Barr was going to be a top 15 if not a top 10 pick. Why was it mentioned that his stock would drop?

 

[mayoclinic]

I like your draft, it would definitely give us upgrades on both sides of the ball. I was under the assumption that Barr was going to be a top 15 if not a top 10 pick. Why was it mentioned that his stock would drop?

Todd McShay has said his stock is dropping. We've discussed it in a few threads on this board. I don't think he'll slip much if at all, and certainly no where near 29, but if he did I'd give some serious thought to moving up for him.

 

[ashley]

Todd McShay has said his stock is dropping. We've discussed it in a few threads on this board. I don't think he'll slip much if at all, and certainly no where near 29, but if he did I'd give some serious thought to moving up for him.

Ok great, thanks for the info Mayo. There is so much great information on this board, that sometimes I can't keep up. I'm still trying to learn all the players from this draft, focusing on the defensive side of the ball and the tight ends. This is really going to be a great draft!!!!

 

[Kontradiction]

Todd McShay has said his stock is dropping. We've discussed it in a few threads on this board. I don't think he'll slip much if at all, and certainly no where near 29, but if he did I'd give some serious thought to moving up for him.

I don't see any way Barr makes it past Chicago, if not before then (Tennessee seems likely as well). The Bears were dead last in sacks last year and Julius Peppers is quickly on his way toward decline. If Barr makes it to them, the Bears will scoop him up methinks.

 

[mayoclinic]

Aww, what the heck. I was going to wait until after the Combine to put up another mock, but Brother Wilfork threw down the gauntlet. So, here's one with swinging for the fences (borrowing heavily from Wilfork#75's number analysis, with gratitude).


Current Cap Space = $10.887M. Based on the new predicted league-wide cap of $130M and the adjustments and costs listed by Miguel.


Goals:

- Retain key personnel wherever possible
- Rebuild the TE position to one of dominance
- Fortify the interior OL to keep Brady clean
- Get faster, more athletic and more disruptive on defense
- Add depth and size at DB


Cap Housekeeping

Re-structure Vince Wilfork ($4M saving) *Turn $4M of salary into NLTBE Incentives - keeps options open for now
Extend Devin McCourty ($1M saving)
Extend Stephen Gostkowski ($1M saving)
Extend Matt Slater ($250K saving) - I think this could me more, but I'm using Wilfork#75's number
Cut Dan Connolly ($2.5mil saving)
Cut Isaac Sopoaga ($2.005mil saving)
Cut Adrian Wilson ($1.1M saving)
Trade Mallett ($282k saving) - I'm including a Mallett trade, however unlikely, for now

Net Cap Saving - $12.137mil

Available Cap Space = $23.024mil


Retain Internal Free Agents

Re-sign CB Aqib Talib - 4 years $26M + Incentives ($12M signing bonus) *1st year cap hit $4M

Re-sign MLB Dane Fletcher - 3 years $2.5M ($300K signiing bonus) 1st year cap hit $830K

Re-sign RB LeGarrete Blount - 3 years $5M ($900K signing bonus) *1st year cap hit $1.050M

Re-sign OT/G Will Svitek - 2 years $1.9M ($100K signing bonus) *1st year cap hit $900K

Re-sign LS Danny Aiken – 2 years $1.375M (vet minimum, no guaranteed money) *1st year cap hit $645K


Re-signings 1st year cap hits = $7.425M

Net Cap Impact = about -$5.5M cap space (accounting for replacing top 51 players)

Available Cap Space = $17.524M


Sign External Free Agents

Sign FA DE Michael Johnson - 5 years $45M ($20M guaranteed, $15M signing bonus, 1st 2 years fully guaranteed) *1st year cap hit $4.5M. Impact DE to team with Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich.

Sign FA OC Alex Mack - 5 years $48M ($20M guaranteed, $15M signing bonus, first 2 years fully guaranteed) *1st year cap hit $5M. Pro Bowl caliber center, will keep Brady clean and give him time to find receivers.

Sign FA WR Sidney Rice - 3 years, $6M + Incentives (with playing time incentives up to $12M; $3M signing bonus, 1 year fully guaranteed) *1st year cap hit $2.5M. Cap casualty in Seattle, talented big WR who is only 27. He will help extend the field and will make a nice complement to the existing WRs. Rice is injury prone (which keeps his cost down), so contract is incentive-based to playing time.

Sign FA C/G Ted Larsen - 2 years $2.25M ($500k signing bonus) *1st year cap hit $1M. Former Pats draftee provides good low-cost Connolly replacement for interior line depth. Nice call by Brother Wilfork.


External Free Agent 1st year cap hit = $13M

Net Cap Impact = about -$11M (accounting for replacing top 51 players)

Total Cap Space = $6.524M


Potential Additional Camp Cuts (Net Cap Saving)

S. Gregory ($2.335mil)
T. Kelly ($1.611mil)
V. Wilfork ($3mil)
T. Wilson ($278k)
J. Bequette ($80k)
DJ Williams ($150k)
C. White ($150k)
M. Forston ($75k)


Draft

*Trade QB Ryan Mallett to Houston for 2(33)*
I know is this unlikely but it’s a mock draft. Mallett to Minnesota for #40 is also another option.

1 (29). DT: Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh. 6'1" 290#.

The most explosive and disruptive defensive prospect in the draft. Adding Donald and Michael Johnson will transform the DL.

* TRADE 2(33) + 4(126) to SF for 2(61) + 3(77) +3(94)*

2(61). TE: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington or Troy Niklas, Notre Dame.

Big, versatile TE to double up with Gronk.

2(62). DE/OLB: Marcus Smith, Louisville. 6' 3 1/2" 258#.

A Jamie Collins-like athletic freak who can play in space or explode off the edge.

3(77). LB: Christian Jones, Florida St. 6' 3 1/2" 236#.

Versatile speedy LB who can line up at OLB, ILB or DE, with tremendous range and coverage ability as well as explosiveness coming off the edge.

* TRADE 3(93) to Jax for 4(101) + 5(138)*
* TRADE 3(94) to Minn for 4 (104) +5(136)*
Lots of depth, move on back and get similar rated players and accumulate picks

4(101). DB: Antone Exum, Virginia Tech. 6' 220#.

A day 1-2 talent who slips because of injuries, with the versatility that BB covets. I think he'd be a great SS opposite McCourty, but he can also play outside CB.

4(104). NT: Justin Ellis, Louisiana Tech. 6'3" 342#.

Massive NT with surprising agility and explosiveness. Ellis/Siliga and Donald/Chris Jones gives the Pats great depth at the NT and 3-tech positions.

5(136). TE: Richard Rodgers, Cal. 6'4" 257#.

Pats double-dip at TE. Rodgers is similar to Jace Amaro, at much better value.

5(138). QB: Aaron Murray, Georgia. 6' 207#.

I'll go with Wilfork#75's guy for now. A backup QB is obligatory if a Mallett trade actually occurs. A vet FA signing is more likely.

6(182). QB/TE: Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech. 6' 6" 248#.

Originally recruited to Virginia Tech as a TE. 10 7/8" hands and 34 1/4" arms combined with great speed and elusiveness.

6(190). CB: Aaron Colvin, Oklahoma. 5' 11 1/2" 194#.

I can go with this pick by Wilfork#75, though I'd be thrilled with Dontae Johnson (6'2 1/2" 199#) as well. Colvin is another day 2 talent who falls due to injury.

6c. FB/H-Back: Trey Millard, Oklahoma or Trey Bruton, Florida.

Either one would be a versatile offensive weapon.

6c. OG: Spencer Long, Nebraska. 6'5" 320#.

Good value here.

7. WR: Chris Boyd, Vanderbilt. 6'4" 206#.

A moon shot on a big, talented WR.

Target UDFA’s

Wifork#75's list is a good one.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Great mock Wilfork#75. We are on he same page this year. Damien Williams? Are you kidding me? It's like you plucked him right off my mock draft

I'll have more for both you and Mayo later.

 

[ripatsfan91]

Mayo, nice job. I like your draft and FA. The only thing I would change is retaining Edelman. I think his chemistry with Brady makes him invaluable and he shouldn't break the bank. I would also like to bring in Art Jones and bring back Blount, but I am not sure if that is possible if we signed Mack and Johnson.

 

[manxman2601]

@Mayo

Good job. Really like most of the draft picks as you already know. However, as I said to Brady 6 in the main forum, I don't like the idea of cutting Kelly and Gregory.

 

[mayoclinic]

Mayo, nice job. I like your draft and FA. The only thing I would change is retaining Edelman. I think his chemistry with Brady makes him invaluable and he shouldn't break the bank. I would also like to bring in Art Jones and bring back Blount, but I am not sure if that is possible if we signed Mack and Johnson.

You have to make some tradeoffs. I said at the beginning that this was a "swing for the fences" mock, with 3 big FA signings: Talib, Johnson and Mack. That entails some choices, and letting Edelman walk was one I was willing to make; another was going to the draft for TE and DT, two positions of relative depth and strength in this draft, as opposed to previous mocks where I addressed both of those positions (Linval Joseph and Brandon Pettigrew). I think Edelman walking in FA is quite likely anyway, as teams overspend for WRs. The rest of my signings were all typical Pats low-budget deals (Blount, Fletcher, Svitek and Aiken re-signings and Rice and Larsen external UFA signings). I think it's pretty unlikely that the Pats would do that, but I wanted to do the analysis to show that it is probably workable under the cap space.

 

[mayoclinic]

@Mayo

Good job. Really like most of the draft picks as you already know. However, as I said to Brady 6 in the main forum, I don't like the idea of cutting Kelly and Gregory.

I listed Kelly and Gregory merely as "potential additional camp cuts", as did Wilfork#75, so there was no decision to be made about them prior to the draft, or even prior training camp. I think that if the Pats decide that they are happy with younger players then both of those guys could be cap casualties, but I didn't mean to imply that they necessarily would be. It never hurts to have "too much depth" going into training camp.

 

[manxman2601]

I listed Kelly and Gregory merely as "potential additional camp cuts", as did Wilfork#75, so there was no decision to be made about them prior to the draft, or even prior training camp. I think that if the Pats decide that they are happy with younger players then both of those guys could be cap casualties, but I didn't mean to imply that they necessarily would be. It never hurts to have "too much depth" going into training camp.

Well in that case, I don't like them being "potential additional camp cuts". Both are too good to be cut in my mind, potentially or absolutely.

 

[mayoclinic]

Mayo, nice job. I like your draft and FA. The only thing I would change is retaining Edelman. I think his chemistry with Brady makes him invaluable and he shouldn't break the bank. I would also like to bring in Art Jones and bring back Blount, but I am not sure if that is possible if we signed Mack and Johnson.

@Mayo

Good job. Really like most of the draft picks as you already know. However, as I said to Brady 6 in the main forum, I don't like the idea of cutting Kelly and Gregory.

Wilfork#75 deserves a lot of credit for his analysis, and for "setting the table". I think it's worth underscoring some of the similarities differences between our mocks:

Similarities:

1. I agree that addressing DE in FA is a wise choice given the lack of depth and talent in the draft. Adding someone like Michael Johnson (or Greg Hardy or Michael Bennett, though they are less likely to leave their present teams) would be terrific.

2. I agree on retaining Aqib Talib, and the general range. I think that continuity in the secondary is important.

3. I agree on adding a lot of low-budget depth, either via re-signings or new UFAs. Re-signing Will Svitek and Dane Fletcher and signing Ted Larsen are all good cost-effective moves.

Differences:

1. I think Julian Edelman is likely to price himself out of the Pats' range. I also think that the Pats can find a quality WR replacement in FA and/or the draft, both of which are very deep at the position. I also think there's too much redundancy between Amendola, Boyce and Edelman. I understand the "chemistry" argument, but I chose to put the money elsewhere. Sidney Rice is just one example of a quality WR who should be available for a fraction of the cost to keep Edelman, and who would be more complementary to the existing WRs.

2. I went after Alex Mack as a high-profile signing who could make a huge difference. I'd rather put Edelman's money towards Mack if possible.

3. I didn't both re-signing Michael Hoomanawanui, given the depth at TE in the draft. He could probably be signed later if necessary. A low-cost signing that doesn't cost much if he's cut would be fine.

4. I went for more speed, athleticism and disruptive capability on defense, which was a major goal. I'd rather have Aaron Donald and Justin Ellis than Louis Nix and Dominique Easley (both of whom have injury questions), and I'd prioritize speed and athleticism in the second level with guys like Marcus Smith and Christian Jones.

5. Wilfork#75 loves Vinny Sunseri. I wanted more speed and athleticism at the safety position, and went with Antone Exum.

 

[mayoclinic]

Well in that case, I don't like them being "potential additional camp cuts". Both are too good to be cut in my mind, potentially or absolutely.

:ugh::violent:

All I did was copy Wilfork#75's list, except that I moved Adrian Wilson into the early cut category to free up some money.

FWIW, I think it's a reasonable list of guys who either are (1) likely to be on the bubble and probably cuts (T. Wilson, Bequette, White, DJ Williams, Forston) or guys who could be camp cuts and who would free up significant amount of money (Wilfork, Kelly, Gregory):

- I've suggested that Wilfork could be an early cut, but it makes some sense to convert some of his money to NLTBE incentives to free up money and buy some time to see if he can come back. If he's not able to recover adequately for 2014, the choice would be IR vs. a cut.

- I think the odds are in favor of Kelly making the team and I've said so, but he is coming back form an ACL injury and is 33. If Armstead comes back strong, then BB might decide to carry only 5 DTs and go with Donald/Chris Jones at 3-tech, Ellis/Siliga at NT, and Armstead as a DT/DE hybrid, and save some money. Again, I don't think it's terribly likely, but I don't think listing Kelly as a "potential camp cut" is unreasonable.

- I'm in the same boat with Gregory. Odds are he will make the team (and possibly be extended, lowering his cap number for 2014), but if a rookie like Exum shows promise and if Duron Harmon and Tavon Wilson develop, then Gregory could be expendable. Again, I don't think listing him as a "potential" camp cut is unreasonable.

Not everyone agrees with your viewpoint on Gregory and Kelly, and I think that Wilfork#75 listing them in the "TBD later" category was a fair compromise at the moment, so I carried it over.