Ridiculously early look at the 2012 roster

[cstjohn17]

It gets earlier every year...


If Welker is franchised or signed WR improves significantly

Big hole at Center
Not much depth or quality in the secondary
Wilfork & Mayo and a bunch of JAGs in the front seven

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...QXNhc0IweWJ6bUE&single=true&gid=0&output=html

The items with questions indicate that I don't know their contract, pass along any updates or corrections. Thank you.

 

[Metaphors]

My thoughts:

- Not sure about your ranking process, but I would tend to rate how they perform with what they are asked to do. With that context, players like Branch and Arrington are thoroughly average while players like Ninkovich and Pryor are solid/very good.

- At center, Wendell is signed through 2013 and I would be surprised if McDonald is playing under just a one year deal.

- Waters is signed through 2012 and considering he is playing at such a high level and is speaking so positively about the experience, I would expect him to return.

- At safety, Barrett (people forget he was a starter) is signed through 2012.

- With those folks added to the mix for 2012, the Pats could return the 2011 team pretty close to intact without making any moves. Some players would be near the end (Light, Waters, Ellis, Warren, Ocho, Branch) but they either have the next gen on the roster or 4 top draft picks in the pipeline.

 

[patfanken]

Damned you John for getting me to thing about this. Here is a my dream roster for next season

OFFENSE

WR - Welker, Edelman, Ocho, Underwood, Top 5 draft pick, vet FA - Branch is done and Slater moves to the defense full time

TE- Gronk, Hernandez, Smith/Yeatman come back into the fold

OL - Light, Mankins, Connolly, Waters, Volmer, Solder, Cannon, Wendell, Thomas Low round pick. Based on what Connolly, Wendall and McDonald have shown, the rush to use a high pick on a brand name C has been mitigated. The fact that Solder and Cannon could be still be back ups is amazing. This and QB are the absolute strengths of the team. The success of the back ups makes Koppen expendable. Thanks for the memories Dan.

QB Brady, Mallett, Low round pick, UDFA, or vet FA BB might go for the UDFA to hide on the PS and go with just 2 QBs next season

RB- Vareen, Ridley, Woodhead, BJGE - I hope Kevin stays with the organization in some capacity, and thankes for the memories

Total 25

DL - Love, Pryor, Anderson, Brace, Wilfolk, Deadrick, top 5 draft pick - Gone are Wright, Carter to age and injury. A bad break in both cases

ILB - Mayo Spikes, Fletcher, Tarpanian - Seeya Gary

OLB - Ninkovich, Cunningham, MCarter, top five draft pick

CBs - Arrington, McCourty, Dowling, Molden top 5 draft pick

S's - Chung, Barrett/Iheadabu, Slater, top 5 draft pick, top end FA

Total 25

ST's
Gostkowski
Mesko
Whoever the long snapper is.

My impact FA pick ups at WR and S are Braylon Edwards who gives us a big WR who can stretch the field, and who after a forgetable season with the Niners will come fairly cheap. LaRon Landry - This is the one FA I'd pay top money to, and if Washington franchized him, I'd go after Mathis

A realistic group of 5 draft picks in the first 3 rounds, all based on names being thrown around by people who know more than me would be.

1a 1Upshaw OLB
1b Minnefield CB
2a Lester S
2b Perry DE
3. Fill in the name of the best field stretching WR available

THe names can change, the order in which they are picked can change, but the positions themselves should remanin sacrosanct
2b

 

[cstjohn17]

My thoughts:

- Not sure about your ranking process, but I would tend to rate how they perform with what they are asked to do. With that context, players like Branch and Arrington are thoroughly average while players like Ninkovich and Pryor are solid/very good.

- At center, Wendell is signed through 2013 and I would be surprised if McDonald is playing under just a one year deal.

- Waters is signed through 2012 and considering he is playing at such a high level and is speaking so positively about the experience, I would expect him to return.

- At safety, Barrett (people forget he was a starter) is signed through 2012.

- With those folks added to the mix for 2012, the Pats could return the 2011 team pretty close to intact without making any moves. Some players would be near the end (Light, Waters, Ellis, Warren, Ocho, Branch) but they either have the next gen on the roster or 4 top draft picks in the pipeline.

Thanks, what about Warren, Anderson and Koutouvides? Are they on one year deals?

My rankings are highly subjective based on how I feel about the player. Not much science. I try to rate the players against other NFL players at the same position.

 

[PatsFaninME]

A realistic group of 5 draft picks in the first 3 rounds, all based on names being thrown around by people who know more than me would be.

1a 1Upshaw OLB
1b Minnefield CB
2a Lester S
2b Perry DE
3. Fill in the name of the best field stretching WR available

THe names can change, the order in which they are picked can change, but the positions themselves should remanin sacrosanct
2b

THE PATRIOTS MUST DRAFT A SAFETY!!!! We can not seriously go into antoher season with Slater and Edelman as our Safety depth. I do like Barrett if he can stay healthy but hasn't proved that yet. We MUST find a S either in draft or FA.

Here's my very early wish list:

1a Upshaw/Barron
1b Barron/Lester
2a K Wright (WR, Baylor) - need outside threat to maintain effectiveness of Welker/Gronk
2b Brewster or CB

 

[patfanken]

THE PATRIOTS MUST DRAFT A SAFETY!!!! We can not seriously go into antoher season with Slater and Edelman as our Safety depth. I do like Barrett if he can stay healthy but hasn't proved that yet. We MUST find a S either in draft or FA.

Here's my very early wish list:

1a Upshaw/Barron
1b Barron/Lester
2a K Wright (WR, Baylor) - need outside threat to maintain effectiveness of Welker/Gronk
2b Brewster or CB

Hey , John, I added TWO impact Safeties. One in the draft and one in FA. How many do we need?

Also I emphatically REJECT the notion that that Pats HAVE to get a field stretching WR. It would be NICE luxury, but definitely not a "necessity". In case no one hasn't noticed, this has been the top offense in the conference WITHOUT a speed threat for the last 2 years. Again its a nice "want", not a big "need"......IMHO

 

[cstjohn17]

Damned you John for getting me to thing about this. Here is a my dream roster for next season

OFFENSE

WR - Welker, Edelman, Ocho, Underwood, Top 5 draft pick, vet FA - Branch is done and Slater moves to the defense full time

TE- Gronk, Hernandez, Smith/Yeatman come back into the fold

OL - Light, Mankins, Connolly, Waters, Volmer, Solder, Cannon, Wendell, Thomas Low round pick. Based on what Connolly, Wendall and McDonald have shown, the rush to use a high pick on a brand name C has been mitigated. The fact that Solder and Cannon could be still be back ups is amazing. This and QB are the absolute strengths of the team. The success of the back ups makes Koppen expendable. Thanks for the memories Dan.

QB Brady, Mallett, Low round pick, UDFA, or vet FA BB might go for the UDFA to hide on the PS and go with just 2 QBs next season

RB- Vareen, Ridley, Woodhead, BJGE - I hope Kevin stays with the organization in some capacity, and thankes for the memories

Total 25

DL - Love, Pryor, Anderson, Brace, Wilfolk, Deadrick, top 5 draft pick - Gone are Wright, Carter to age and injury. A bad break in both cases

ILB - Mayo Spikes, Fletcher, Tarpanian - Seeya Gary

OLB - Ninkovich, Cunningham, MCarter, top five draft pick

CBs - Arrington, McCourty, Dowling, Molden top 5 draft pick

S's - Chung, Barrett/Iheadabu, Slater, top 5 draft pick, top end FA

Total 25

ST's
Gostkowski
Mesko
Whoever the long snapper is.

My impact FA pick ups at WR and S are Braylon Edwards who gives us a big WR who can stretch the field, and who after a forgetable season with the Niners will come fairly cheap. LaRon Landry - This is the one FA I'd pay top money to, and if Washington franchized him, I'd go after Mathis

A realistic group of 5 draft picks in the first 3 rounds, all based on names being thrown around by people who know more than me would be.

1a 1Upshaw OLB
1b Minnefield CB
2a Lester S
2b Perry DE
3. Fill in the name of the best field stretching WR available

THe names can change, the order in which they are picked can change, but the positions themselves should remanin sacrosanct
2b

Nice effort but come on? You can do better than that, you said this is your dream roster, for now dream a little.

As the offseason gets closer we can start to place a greater emphasis on the cold hard reality of how the Patriots operate.

Don't forget veteran FAs

 

[everlong]

Also I emphatically REJECT the notion that that Pats HAVE to get a field stretching WR. It would be NICE luxury, but definitely not a "necessity". In case no one hasn't noticed, this has been the top offense in the conference WITHOUT a speed threat for the last 2 years. Again its a nice "want", not a big "need"......IMHO

I don't think they need a Vincent Jackson type who pretty much only stretches the field but I would say they need somebody who can run all the routes Branch can and go deep when needed to punish the defense. Jordy Nelson, Devery Henderson, Pierre Garcon type of player. None of them are known as a burner but you play tight coverage and they're capable of beating it and then taking you deep so that has to be respected.

 

[patsfaninpa]

We could brink back the same offense and score 500pts next year. I don't give a rat's arese about anything we do on that side of the ball. I want defense, defense, and more defense this off-season. I would start with signing Dashon Goldson - SF to be our starting free safety. Switch back to the 3-4. Need a veteran 2 gapper for depth that isn't washed up and a vet ILB for depth. In the draft we have to come up with 3 players. OLB, DE and safety. Ochmed has the idea of trading up for C. Upshaw. I endorse that unless you like someone else at that position more like Nick Perry - USC

1A Courtney Upshaw - OLB - Alabama
1b Fletcher Cox - DE - Miss St
2a Robert Lester - S - Alabama
2b WR(J. Adams - Arkansas)
3 TRADED TO GET UPSHAW
4 CB(D'Anton Lynn - PSU)

SEC centric. But, that's where they play the best defense. Lynn is Johnny Lynn's kid. NFL db coach. PSU plays a similiar zone to us. He's got decent size and can tackle.

DL (6)
Starters - Wilfork, Love and Deaderick
Depth - Brace, 1ST Rounder and UFA

OLB (5)
Starters - Ninko and Upshaw
Depth - M. Anderson(have to bring him back), Cunningham and M. Carter

ILB (4)
Starters - Mayo and Spikes
Depth - UFA and Fletcher

CB (5)
Starters - Dowling and McCourty
Depth - Arrington, Molden and rookie draft pick (2-4)

S (5)
Starters - Chung and Goldson
Depth - Rookie draft pick 2nd rounder, Ihedigbo and J. Barrett.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

1A Courtney Upshaw - OLB - Alabama
1b Fletcher Cox - DE - Miss St
2a Robert Lester - S - Alabama
2b WR(J. Adams - Arkansas)
3 TRADED TO GET UPSHAW
4 CB(D'Anton Lynn - PSU)

SEC centric. But, that's where they play the best defense. Lynn is Johnny Lynn's kid. NFL db coach. PSU plays a similiar zone to us. He's got decent size and can tackle.

I really like this draft. Excellent use of the third round pick as well.

With Cox probably needing a year before he takes over FT as a starting DE, we could bring back Pryor next year as well.

 

[ay-yo]

Thoughts on 2012 offensive roster:

WR:
100% agree with PatfanKen's thoughts on the deep threat wr. Bring back Welker (duh), Edelman and Ocho on a reduced contract. I'd bring back Branch as well. You simply won't get the production of Branch out of a different wr at the same money. Lastly I'd add a 1st or 2nd rounder to this mix.


RB:
I think Matt Forte would be an absolute beast for us. IDK about his injury but if healthy I'd pay a lot for Forte. The biggest advantage of the 2 TE set is we can go from a 4 wide spread attack to a 2 TE power running formation and force the defense to declare their personnel. With defensive personnel declared Brady can audible to a big time mismatch. Only problem is the D only has to look at our rb to get a fairly accurate indicator of what we want to do. Forte changes all of that due to his excellence in both the passing and running game.

Some may say this is an unnecessary use of resources. We are 1 of 3 teams with an elite O and have a putrid D. Why spend valuable resources on O? I'm a believer in bringing in talent and adjusting the way you play / scheme accordingly. Considering the top 3 teams are in the explosive O / bad D category I have no problem using resources on the O.

I like Benny but he is a product of the talent around him. I'd let him walk and take the comp pick. Of course if we don't get Forte bring him back as he is a known quantity.

OL:
Tackle is all set. We don't get to see Cannon in practice and that makes a big difference in evaluating the OG position. If Cannon does not look starter quality I have no problem with using a high pick on OG. Otherwise we're set there as well. OC looks fine to me. Like the deep threat WR, it'd be nice have a stud center but we're fine without one.

In summary we don't have any needs although we can make upgrades at RB, WR, OG or OC.

 

[ay-yo]

Thoughts on 2012 defensive roster:

Safety:
By far the biggest need on the entire team. We need a durable vet here. It isn't talked about much but injuries worsen communication as well as deplete the talent. If we had a secondary together for 16 consecutive games communication would be vastly improved. I'd add a high pick to the S position as well. Chung / FA / high pick / Ihedigbo / Barrett seems a lot betetr than what we have now.

CB:
I like Arrington and McCourty as 2/3 of our CB rotation. Given the amount of nickle we play we need a 3rd cb tho. I don't care if the third CB is brought in to start (like deep threat WR kinda unnecessary although would be nice) or play as the 3rd CB but we need one. The amount of injuries we take at this position demands you have good depth. Molden seems good enough to be a 5th cb to me. Dowling is your 4th CB and shouldn't be counted on for much given that he hasn't played enough in the NFL to give an opinion on him 1 way or the other.

3-4 vs. 4-3:
I was a big proponent of staying in the 4-3 but Carter's injury muddies the situation. I'd still look to stay in the 4-3 however. The personel is simply much easier to acquire. Additionally I like a starting LB corps of Nink / Mayo / Spikes. It's good to have consistency from year to year and minimize roster turnover (assuming the players are worth keeping).

DE:
Bring back Carter and Anderson then add a high pick. Andersen has proven to work well in our system. If Carter can play well next season we'd be in great position. If Carter can't play well we'll still have a solid starter (Andersen) and a young talent.

DT:
This basically includes the other 3 spots on the DL since our LDE is not your average 4-3 DE. I like all of our guys here but don't love any of them outside of Vince. We could certainly use an injection of young talent here but don't really need one.

LB:
Mayo is a stud. Given Ninko's contract extension it's safe to assume he'll be a starter next year. Spikes should be the MLB and is a fine 3rd LB. The only thing we're missing is a 2nd nickle LB to pay next to Mayo. Guyton has been in this role for some time now and it's clear he is never going to be the coverage stud some hoped for. I don't know how high a priority this will be but considering how much nickle we play I think it should be addressed.

In summary we need three new players on D:
S: Chung / starter ?
CB: McCourty / Arrington / nickle CB ?
LB: Nink / Spikes / Mayo / nickle LB ?
DL: Carter / Love / Vince / Deaderick / Andersen (subrusher)

 

[BaltimorePatsFan]

Don't need Koppen anymore. I think he's gone.

Also, I expect BB to cut ties with the most recent batch of failed draft picks, like Cunningham and Brace.

 

[patfanken]

I really like this draft. Excellent use of the third round pick as well.

With Cox probably needing a year before he takes over FT as a starting DE, we could bring back Pryor next year as well.

Pryor is a must keeper. He is my Mike Wright replacement. He is the guy who is quick enough to provide an inside pass rush at DT in a 4-3 or 3-4 NT, or 3-4 DE

BT- I'm hoping we don't have to use our 3rd round pick to get our preferred OLB/pass rusher. From what the smart people are saying, there should be a pretty good WR prospect still available in that round

 

[MaineMan]

It gets earlier every year...

If Welker is franchised or signed WR improves significantly

Branch and Ocho are the primary "outside the numbers" possession guys and both are old. I think it would be wise to try to find a young Branch clone to apprentice to both him and Ocho before they go away for good. Price, it seems, was supposed to be that guy, but alas.

Big hole at Center

Here I go again, running against the common wisdom. The Pats' #4 Center this season, Nick McDonald, while he didn't play great, still seemed to perform as well as or better than the #2 Center for most teams. And I don't think that Scar is quite done with him (or Wendell or Connolly) just yet. Besides, Koppen (who is better for the run game than most folks seem to think) could easily re-sign. Picking up another prospect in the draft? Sure! Thinking that the Pats have a "big hole" at the position that can only be fixed by spending a high draft pick might be overstating the case a bit. At least as long as Scar is around.

Not much depth or quality in the secondary

CB - This is pretty murky for me. I still think DMC can be very good and his performance this year has suffered, in part, because of the lack of quality safety help on the field. Improvement in safety quality may produce a satisfying turnaround for him in 2012. Dowling is mostly unknown having gone on IR so early, but seems very promising (and, IMHO, his "injury history" is overstated). Arrington may have some limitations, but is a very solid #2/3.

Safety - Probably more murky for me than for most folks. Chung seems to me a solid in-the-box guy with good range and some coverage ability, but he's been injured a lot. Josh Barrett (speaking of "injury history") is big, athletic but still (IMO) mostly an unknown. Ihedigbo isn't great at anything but special teams, but seems a servicable reserve/nickel guy (much moreso than Slater). Brown is the intriguing one to me. He's the only guy I've seen this season who's actually gotten into position to help out McCourty when he's needed it. I also found this stat comparison interesting:

Meriweather 2007, age 23, 1st-round rookie:
16 games/0 starts, 18 tckls/9 asst, 3 PD, 1 FF

Brown 2011, age 23, UDFA 2nd year (almost exclusively special teams as a rookie)
14 games, 3 starts, 18 tckls/9 asst, 1 INT, 1 PD

I'm not claiming by any means that Brown WILL develop, just that it might be a season too early to discard him out of hand.

That said, a smart coverage safety would still be a wise investment and such a pick would probably need to happen by the mid-2nd in this safety class.

Wilfork & Mayo and a bunch of JAGs in the front seven

DL "heavies":
Warren is old. Ellis is old. Wright is almost certainly gone for health reasons and Pryor may be also. Brace, though he's played mostly 3-4 DE, seems more like a barely adequate reserve 4-3 DT at this point.

Wilfork is a great NT. Love is a fine UT. Deaderick seems to be developing into at least a decent reserve 3-4 DE. Regardless of the intended proportion of 4-3 to 3-4 is for 2012, the Pats are short on DL "heavies" with youth and upside.

LB:

Guyton has hit his ceiling and played out his contract. Anderson is still almost a pure 3-point sub-rusher (but relatively young). Andre Carter is a solid rusher who's shown some surprising defensive ability, too - but HE's old. Counting White, Koutouvides and Tarpinian as primarily special-teamers/emergency fill-ins, that leave the Pats with:

Mayo is a fine, "fly around making tackles" guy who seems best (IMO) as partner to a thumper like Spikes in the middle and who needs to improve his coverage skills. Ninko has developed into a very reliable "defender" whose "add-on" pass-rush is improving (6.5 sacks). Fletcher seems to have the athleticism and the want-to to play inside or outside, but needs more discipline and certainly seems capable of being at least a solid reserve/situational guy. Seems to me that the LB corps is really only one guy short, though all of them could cover better.

 

[cstjohn17]

It gets earlier every year...


If Welker is franchised or signed WR improves significantly

Big hole at Center
Not much depth or quality in the secondary
Wilfork & Mayo and a bunch of JAGs in the front seven

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...QXNhc0IweWJ6bUE&single=true&gid=0&output=html

The items with questions indicate that I don't know their contract, pass along any updates or corrections. Thank you.

Updated list based on information from ESPN
Patriots roster by contract length - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston



Roster
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...QXNhc0IweWJ6bUE&single=true&gid=0&output=html

Next year will be another year where we have to buy programs to identify the players.

 

[dryheat44]

Damned you John for getting me to thing about this. Here is a my dream roster for next season

OFFENSE

WR - Welker, Edelman, Ocho, Underwood, Top 5 draft pick, vet FA - Branch is done and Slater moves to the defense full time

Hi Everybody!...Hi Uncle Heatster.... Let's get rid of Underwood, since apparently he's not returning kicks for us. Let's add Reggie Wayne. He and Belichick seem to have mutual admiration, and he can say he played with the two greatest QBs of his generation. I also wouldn't cry if Ochocinco moved on instead of Branch. I would like to draft a WR in the first two rounds...a Mohammad Sanu or Michael Floyd-type, and I would let Brady choose which one after working out with them. Interestingly enough, back in September I was fine with letting Welker move on and giving his role to Edelman, but after the season he just had, I don't think we can do that....plus Edelman might need to be full time DB if Belichick can't fix the secondary in the off-season. If Welker was franchised the next two years, he'd make 20 million, so offer him 3 years at 25 million, all guaranteed, and a nice signing bonus.

TE- Gronk, Hernandez, Smith/Yeatman come back into the fold

I did like ****inson a lot out of Pittsburgh, so I'd like to keep him around for special teams and Hernandez insurance.

OL - Light, Mankins, Connolly, Waters, Volmer, Solder, Cannon, Wendell, Thomas Low round pick. Based on what Connolly, Wendall and McDonald have shown, the rush to use a high pick on a brand name C has been mitigated. The fact that Solder and Cannon could be still be back ups is amazing. This and QB are the absolute strengths of the team. The success of the back ups makes Koppen expendable. Thanks for the memories Dan.

I'm fine going into next season with Wendell as starting center and keeping Connolly or Thomas as reserve guard. - not both. Since Connolly can fill in as center or kick returner, he'd be my preference. McDonald and Matt Kopa provide cheap depth on the fringes of the 53 or practice squad.

QB Brady, Mallett, Low round pick, UDFA, or vet FA BB might go for the UDFA to hide on the PS and go with just 2 QBs next season

If we can't trade Hoyer for a mid-round draft choice, and I think we probably could, I'd keep him another year.

RB- Vareen, Ridley, Woodhead, BJGE - I hope Kevin stays with the organization in some capacity, and thankes for the memories

I think The Firm is gone. And I'm okay with that...somebody will throw some money at him. Ridley, Woodhead, Vereen, and a cheap free agent vet or two. Hell, if LaDainian wants to slum it with us lowlifes to try for a championship as a vet minimum backup contract with incentives, I'd welcome it.

DL - Love, Pryor, Anderson, Brace, Wilfolk, Deadrick, top 5 draft pick - Gone are Wright, Carter to age and injury. A bad break in both cases

Carter stays. It's only a quad injury (as far as we know), not a knee or hip that's going to be a long recovery. The D-line is hard to figure, since I imagine Belichick wants to go back to a 3-4 next season. Brace would be in contention for the last couple of spots on the roster. There's some good free agents out there, but guys like Franklin, Pouha, Laws, and Bryant will probably be too expensive. I've always thought that Adam Carriker would be a pretty good player in a 3-4, so I might bring him in for a look. At worst, he should be able to give us what Mike Wright did, and possibly a lot more.

ILB - Mayo Spikes, Fletcher, Tarpanian - Seeya Gary

Again hard to figure if we go to a 3-4. I think I'd try to keep Guyton for a nickel linebacker, special teams, and an option for when Spikes suffers his annual injury. Mayo and Fletcher don't exactly appear to be bulletproof either. Then again, if Koutouvides or White can give you what Guyton does in the passing defense, then yeah....seeya Gary.

OLB - Ninkovich, Cunningham, MCarter, top five draft pick

Yeah...if Anderson or Carter can't play OLB for us, we need an instant starter from somewhere.

CBs - Arrington, McCourty, Dowling, Molden top 5 draft pick
S's - Chung, Barrett/Iheadabu, Slater, top 5 draft pick, top end FA

I'd put some big money that a big-time safety is coming in the first round. I like Sergio over Barrett, who hasn't been able to stay healthy for a couple of years now, but I'd gladly cast them both overboard if I could bring in Michael Griffin as a free agent. Thomas DeCoud is another guy I like at safety. At corner, I'd probably touch base with the agents for Rashean Mathis and Terrell Thomas to see what kind of money they're looking for.

ST's
Gostkowski
Mesko
Aiken

I won't get into the draft names yet, but WR and S should be the top picks. I'm sure that's more than 53, but I'll let the camp injuries sort out the rest.

I hope everyone is well.