patsfanofNC12

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...2007&fext=.jsp

If this happened it could force the Twins to possibly make the deal, and keep up with the Tigers.

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Mogamedogz

The Deal is done according to WEEI.

BelichickFan

Not sure why it would make the Twins do their deal but the Tigers would seem to be the one AL threat to the Red Sox; I'm not a huge Willis fan but him, Bonderman and Verlander is very impressive and their lineup would be sick adding Cabrera and Renteria.

VJCPatriot

Wow great deal for the Tigers, they get two established, fairly young stars in return for 6 prospects! That team is going to be a contender in 2008!

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patriotspride

i don't think this deal is as big as its made out to be .Willis is OK but nothing special .hes going to be in the American league now .good luck to him hes going to need it .Cabrera is a excellent pick up but its all about pitching .i don't care how good your line up is .

BelichickFan

Bonderman and Verlander are a 1-2 punch that could actually compete with Beckett and Santana. Willis and Rogers are a decent 3,4. I like the Red Sox pitching better, especially when you include the closers, but the Tigers will have a damn good team.

Foley

Five full seasons into Bondermans career and hes managed one season with a better than league average ERA. He may still be young, but if 5 full years of experience doesn't make someone a competent pitcher than I doubt the transition from 24 to 25 would make much of a difference. He has a long way to go before being mentioned in the same breath as Verlander, much less Johan Santana.

As far as Willis, keep in mind his IF defense went from Mike Lowell, Alex Gonzalez and Luis Castillo to Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla following his great 2005 season. He had other problems the past two seasons besides that (rising HR and BB rates), but a defensive drop off in the three main IF positions is not good for any pitcher, especially a groundball pitcher like Willis. Assuming they move Cabrera back to LF and keep Brandon Inge at 3B, a defense of Inge, Edgar Renteria and Placido Polanco could be key to a Willis resurgence.

BelichickFan

While you are correct, his "expected" ERA from the source I use (BBHQ) historically has been : 4.00, 3.39, 3.60, 2.93, 3.79. This suggests his actual ERA is more a case of bad luck and/or bad situational pitching than skills. He's a breakout waiting to happen with the only caveat being that his 2nd half xERA was in the mid 4s so there may be a hidden injury or burnout. Willis is another who's never had an xERA above 3.78 until last year's jump tp 4.50.

Real World

It's a nice deal for the Tigers, but a better deal for the Marlins. Maybin is a stud. The Tigers just raped their farm to win now. Their line up is scary, and their starters are pretty darned good. Of course, they still rely on Todd Jones to close. I'll be curious to see how Willis does in the AL. He's got great stuff, but he's been pounded with innings at a young age.

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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him."
Leo Tolstoy, 1897

Foley

After 5 years of nearly consistent mediocrity I don't think the luck argument is really valid anymore. xERA, DIPS, LIPS and FIP all love him and say luck/defense/other factors are preventing him from succeeding, but they've been saying that since he came into the league and have been wrong every year since. Projections are fine, but if they're proven wrong time and time again it should lead them to believe that their projections aren't telling the whole story. Maybe next year will be a breakout year, or maybe he'll continue with another year of mediocrity. Story of Bonderman's career.

In 2006 Rogers, Robertson and Verlander each pitched about a run better than their FIP projected, implying that their defense shaved about a run of their ERAs. Those three were each in the top 7 in that category in all of baseball. Bonderman, on the other hand, had the 4th worst FIP-ERA ratio in baseball. Hes on a team where every other starter pitched well above their FIP, yet he pitched well below his own (And 2006 wasn't the only time this happened). This leads me to believe that the projections giving him a 3.31FIP are missing something.

As far as hidden injury, his mechanics are a mess. A career full of shoulder and knee issues wouldn't be a surprise. link