JoeSixPat

... as some might recall there was a lot of vigorous debate in Red Sox nation last year when Bay got off to a hot start - on pace to hit 50 home runs and drive in 170 runs - prompting many to want to sign him to a mega contract extension

at the time many were faulting Theo, though the front office correctly assessed that Bay wasn't a 50/170 guy and shouldn't be paid like one... indeed they felt he was more of a 35/120 guy, and sure enough that's about where he landed

I'm sure we all would have loved to have those types of numbers on the roster but the front office wasn't about to overpay for Bay

So fast forward to mid-season 2010, after the Mets dropped a $66 million 4 year contract into his lap ... Mets fans have received a whopping 6 home runs and 44 RBIs for the $16.5 million this season alone - on pace for 11 HRs and 80 RBIs, prompting him to be booed by the hometown fans before the All Star break.

Now that being said Bay will probably get hot at some point and I'd be surprised if he didn't produce more than his projections at this point - but the point is still the same... the Red Sox were smart not to pay Bay during his hot streak and were wise not to match the overpaid contract offered by the Mets.

... all of a sudden David Ortiz's contract doesn't look so bad!

I guess the bottom line is that Theo and the Sox do make plenty of mistakes but quite often they know what they are doing and are smart enough not to get caught up in streaks and overpay for mediocre talent (well, JD Drew might want to beg to differ with me on that but I digress.)

TommyBrady12

Jason Bay was all about money. When the sox refused to give him the contract that he wanted bay showed it on the field with lazy play. he's no different than Manny IMO. Now that Bay got his contract in NY, he's just sitting back and enjoying the money. Theo made a mistake of trading Manny for Bay, but he was right to let him go. in the end we traded manny and got nothing.

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"He’s the greatest quarterback to ever play the game. He goes from being a rookie that nobody is expecting anything from, to taking over with people saying he can’t do it, to winning three Super Bowls....It should already be obvious he’s the greatest quarterback to ever have played. "

- Steelers S Troy Polamalu on Tom Brady

captain insano

no he didnt. it was a great trade. one of theos best.

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chicowalker

OT (sort of): JD Drew is far from mediocre

re. Manny, not sure what choice people think the sox had. I was in Manny's camp until I saw him playing for the Dodgers and actually hustling. He quit on the team, he hadn't been going all
out for a long time, and his teammates wanted him gone. Getting Bay for him was a good deal.

Edit: btw, we didn't get nothing for Manny. I think bay netted the Sox Ranaudo and Workman. We'll see what they turn into

Real World

Bay plays in Citi Field, which ranks 26th out of the 30 parks in the majors, when it comes to home runs. I'm not sure why he wanted to sign on and play there. It's a tough park for power hitters. It really affected David Wright's power numbers last year. Wright actually changed his entire stance because of it. I think Bay would probably be producing like normal were he still in Fenway.

2010 MLB Park Factors - Home Runs - Major League Baseball - ESPN

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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him."
Leo Tolstoy, 1897

JoeSixPat

I agree that Bay would probably be producing closer to his typical average year.

That's part of the the point though - that the Mets overpaid in a very big way for a guy with good Fenway HR numbers that could be expected drop signficantly at Citi Field.

He'll finish with a good number of hits, a few more doubles and triples than in past seasons, but are paying him as a high producing Power guy who lacks power numbers.

chicowalker

if they use that reasoning, any time they're competing for players, they'll lose out on offensive players and overpay pitchers

Bay is the same player -- it's the park that's causing different stats

(This assumes parks don't impact players differently -- probably not the case, but a decent assumption until shown otherwise, I think)

Real World

Omar Minaya. That's all I've got to say.

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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him."
Leo Tolstoy, 1897

JoeSixPat

Even if the park and only the park is to blame for Bay's subpar first half (and I don't think it is) you still have to scratch your head at the signing of Bay in particular and the huge contract they signed him to...

In effect since Bay's power is neutered by the park you're paying him like a HR hitter when you could get the same production out of a singles and doubles guy

Indeed a power hitter who lacks the power to get the ball out of the field leaves himself vulnerable to a lot of flyball outs.

They could have paid much less for a guy who will get the same amount of hits and hopefully RBIs who might not have as much power than Bay, but of course that's irrelevant in that park.

I don't think Bay's power numbers were particularly impressive in other stadiums either so I wouldn't place too much emphasis on the Citi Field factor - but to Bay's credit his hits have come up and he'll finish with a typical season on the non power numbers.

Real World

Omar Minaya.

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"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him."
Leo Tolstoy, 1897