rabidfireweasel

Your expections aren't high, they are close to absurd. You put out 3 names who had the 3 of the top 6 strongest rookie seasons in the last 20 years (Randy Moss, Michael Clayton and AJ Green probably fill out the list) and make that your baseline for expectations. This, on a team with two- three established pass catchers. Basically, out of the hundreds of wr's drafted in the last 20 years, and with little history of drafting a good one, you expect the patriots to draft a rookie- at a pick in the 20's, who performs in the 5% historically. The question in, why?

Consider that Calvin Johnson only had 756 and 4 as a rookie. Larry Fitzgerald wasn't much better. Andre Johnson didn't get 1000 yards. Julio jones was a clear stud as a rookie and didn't get a thousand yards. Michael Crabtree just figured things out this year.

rabidfireweasel

I would say that if the team still has a healthy Gronk, Hernandez, Lloyd and Vereen, than yes, that looks like an unreasonable expectation to me.
I think any rookie getting more than 700 yards would be surprising unless one or more of the primary weapons gets hurt.

805 and 5 is a monster rookie wr year, even if the team has no other weapons and a QB who locks onto a primary read.

manxman2601

Kendall Wright had 626 yards with Jake Locker and Hasselbeck throwing to him.

Justin Blackmon had 865 yards with Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne dealing the ball.

Patriot fans are way too defeatist on this WR draftee thing. We have the best QB ever throwing the ball. If the WR's are getting on the field, then they should be putting up similar numbers.

Let's just say that Bedard and Reiss are right and that neither Lloyd and Welker are back. There's potentially 2300 yards of receptions up for grabs. Why can't a rookie get Blackmon/Gordon type numbers?

rabidfireweasel

I would say that it is very possible if Lloyd and Welker both leave. However, I don't see it as 2300 yards available, unless Gronk or Hernandez get hurt. They missed a lot of games last year.

I think you are one of the best minds on the board Manx, but you are comparing apples and oranges. Justin Blackmon in the best wr on his team, and Chad Henne can accumulate yardage. I would also say that Kendall Wright is the best wr on his team. Unless a QB is truly awful, a mediocre QB can put up big numbers with a quality wr, especially if that guy is the receiving threat on the team. Jeff Blake, Aaron Brooks, David Carr, Jay Cutler, Matt Moore and Andy Dalton all say " Hi".

The problem I see in terms of the rookie wr, and I mean this in terms of statistical impact- not game impact- is that I don't see the rookie gaining enough trust to get enough targets in year 1 if Lloyd, Gronk and Hernandez stays.
I think Markus Wheaton could step right in and produce 850 and 6 if both wrs leave. If one stays, I think he is more slowly acclimated to the offense. I think if the guy is a newer fit ( a big strong guy) I definitely think there will be an adjustment period. A true playmaker would change the offense, but his value might not register when ranking rookies by statistics.

I hope NE drafts a wr or two. I just think that they system they run is very tough on rookies, especially given that there is talent ( although it is mostly TE and RB talent) to catch the ball. I have much higher hopes and expectations in year 2.

manxman2601

To be honest, I largely agree with you. And to be frank, I really don't care how productive they are for the first year anyway. We're drafting them, hopefully for a decade. I hate drafting for a one year need and I absolutely hate this idea of selling out for Brady's final years that has become so pervasive on the main board. I'm actually more concerned about the post Brady years than I am his final few and we should be drafting with that in mind.

EwanSellars

i really think we should sign one WR and draft 1 preferably signing Hartline and drafting Patton in the 2nd

Patriot Missile

So what? Believe me,I'm well grounded when it comes to this team. Just because I throw a few names out there doesn't mean it's gonna happen. If the player drafted can stretch the field horizontally and vertically, help the team win games while making the other players successfull while being a threat himself. Isnt that great? Doesn't mean he has to catch a 100 balls, receive a 1000 yards or make incredible Moss catches.

There's always a chance a draftee just gets it right away and performs well. Theres a greater probability of that with this QB and offense. Maybe I should just lower my expectations to mediocre? That's absurd to me.

manxman2601

Just been rewatching Robert Woods. Very impressive. As much as I like Wheaton and Patton, I do think Woods and Hopkins are a step up. Certainly first round worthy.

We would be stupid not to use this draft to reboot our WR position. There is just too much talent.

Username

Hurrah!!

Finally someone else sees what I see in Woods. I think there's been too much focus on 2012 when evaluating Woods, when he wasn't healthy. As I keep mentioning I think he's the most gifted of the WR's in a very stacked draft class

manxman2601

This is one for the Justin Hunter fans. The number of "clutch" receptions by 10 college receivers. Not sure how much it tells us but interesting all the same.





https://twitter.com/JPSTATS/status/3...881088/photo/1