Originally Posted by D-Money

I would give him a 2 year deal.If he doesnt accept it then go after someone in the free agent market.

Originally Posted by Sciz

I'll take care of these two together, since they're basically the same thing.

First of all, let's address my previous views on Welker.
Welker was a year removed from ACL surgery and had just put up a season of 848 yards. He had essentially no production outside the slot, and he was badly outproduced by Branch in the 2/2/1 sets. Welker was a slot receiver on a team with two elite TEs. And while there are definitely ways to use a slot receiver with two TEs on the field (both WRs on one side, a TE as an outside receiver, going empty), it's limiting to an offense. Even now, the majority of Welker's snaps come in the slot.

There were two main things I did not account for. First of all, that Welker would not only regain his pre-ACL surgery athleticism, but surpass it. You find me a 29 yard old receiver that tears an ACL and then gets faster after recovering from it, and I'll admit that I should have expected him to be Superman. That 2010 season gave us a perfect indication of what Welker's going to be when his athleticism declines, because we got to see him play with one of his legs at far less than 100%.

Welker was 28 when he tore his ACL. Would you settle for a 27 year old RB comparison. Sports medicine has come a long way in the last decade... And if Welker can still produce 2010 stats in 3-4 years the team will be thrilled, particularly after they renegotiate his backend non guaranteed salary to reflect that. You seem to fail to grasp how long term contracts work in the NFL.

Second, I did not anticipate that Chad Johnson would bomb so hard. He has more recently claimed that his problems off the field made him unable to concentrate on football, and whatever the reason, he just sucked. Physically, he was what the Pats needed. Based on his previous production, down to the routes he ran and where he caught balls, he was exactly what the offense needed, a guy that you could stick outside to either win one on one matchups or pull attention from the middle of the field, letting the tight ends go to work. He was not a guy that statistically was confined to the slot. He was the exact opposite, and now we more that he was the exact opposite of Welker in more ways than that, especially mentally. Perhaps my trade Welker, trade for Ochocinco proposal was overly simplistic, but while some people expected Ochocinco to not be good, I don't think anybody expected it to be for reasons completely unrelated to his shenanigans, which weren't at all an issue.

You and BB... The only off the field problem Chad had here was the same one he's had his whole career. Can't focus. Probably could use some adderall. Although in his case he'd probably just use it to sharpen his focus on social media and video games as opposed to coaching and playbook. And some of us expected Chad to bust here despite their ability to eliminate outright shenanigans. Physically and fifty cents will get you a cup of coffee here. Mentally (acuity and toughness) is what it's all about when you play with Brady and for Belichick.

Now it's not like I was supporting giving Welker away. You also have to account for the new player. I don't remember if this was before or after the 2010 draft, but there were plenty of good players taken in the second and third rounds of each of those drafts. Maybe Belichick drafts a complete bust, or maybe he drafts Navorro Bowman, TJ Ward, Torrey Smith, or Randall Cobb. Or maybe he turns it into a 2012 first. I don't know, but you're completely ignoring that pick.

With good reason... The last time we traded a #1WR for a first round pick we ended up with Big Bang Clock... And the last WR we drafted here in the second or third round who amounted to anything was that guy...


Anyway, based what has happened with Welker, you have apparently deemed me too stupid to respond to anything related to him. So, since you have already caught me being wrong once, I'll make sure you benefit if it happens a second time. If, in four years, Welker has a 1,000 yard season (very modest production for a $10M receiver), then I'm gone forever. Feel free set as many alarms for January of 2017 as you need to remember. If Ian is around until then, then I will be too. And after being wrong a second time on Welker, I clearly do not deserve to talk at all about anything related to the Pats ever again.

Originally Posted by Deus Irae

No, it's not. It's your opinion that it's better, and that's fine for you, but there's no "definitely" about it.



Wayne will be 35 in November. Welker will be 32 next May.

The reality is that, even with a 4 year deal, which is not something I recommended, Welker's contract would still be ending with him at age 34, which means that it would be ending with him at the same age where Wayne's new contract is starting. As for what the Patriots should have done, they should have adapted to the changed WR market:

2 years 20-21, 15 guaranteed
3 years 24-30, 16-20 guaranteed (I'd have looked at 3/24-3/27 as the expected range)

Either of the above could have been offered and, since they'd already franchised him, the 2 year deal would have been a low offer anyway, but would have given Welker a bit more security without ramping his price up higher than the double franchise tag. Reportedly, they never budged off of 2 years 16, which was an insult.

Originally Posted by Deus Irae

His targets are down an average of about 50% since the Jets game, from just under 9.5 to just over 4.5. You can call it what you want, but he's been scaled back.

Originally Posted by Sciz

It's not about pure age.

Originally Posted by Sciz

Wayne has been plenty productive at 34. But had he not been, it was easy for the Colts to get rid of him with minimal loss ($5M). We don't know if Welker will be productive at 34. Heck, we don't know if he'll be productive at 32. The key there is that regardless of age, the Colts had an easy out of Wayne's contract, where nobody is proposing a Welker contract that has an easy out until it's over.

Originally Posted by Sciz

Instead of the two-year contract you propose, the Pats could instead have offered 2 years, $20.933M with $9.515M guaranteed. Heck, they still can do that. That's what he gets if the Pats franchise him again. There's no motivation on the Pats' end to offer him more than $9.5M guaranteed up front except to change the yearly cap hit split from $9.5 and then $11.4M to something more even.

Originally Posted by Sciz

Depending on where in those ranges you end up, Welker is gaining one year, $8-14M, and $0-4 guaranteed. At the low end, it's another non-guaranteed year added onto the $16M/2yr proposal from the Pats. If you think that (or a little more) is enough that Welker would have accepted it, then I think it could definitely be arranged to be a pretty good deal on both ends. I just don't think Welker would be too quick to accept it unless he's getting closer to the $30M than the $27M.

Originally Posted by ThatllMoveTheChains!!!

I'll call it error because of the large swing is the result of 4 games where his targets were out of whack. I'll also call the reaction kneejerk, just like the one after WW only got targeted once in the first game. Overall they've been throwing less since the Jets game and if it wasn't for the high number of targets WW got in the Phins game his numbers would be trending down too.

Originally Posted by ThatllMoveTheChains!!!

I find it odd that many of the same posters that had their panties in a wad after the Titans are happy as clams after the Phins game. Cries of "forcing the ball to a receiver and ignoring another is ruining the offense" have turned into "a receiver is disappearing and another is saving the offense". The logic that when Lloyd is targeted a lot he's the cause of struggles and that when WW is targeted a lot he's bailing them out of struggles is based purely on personal feelings towards the WRs. When WW is targeted 30% more than his season avg the Pats have scored 31, 23, and 23 points; and when Lloyd has been the Pats have scored 18, 30, and 23 points.

Originally Posted by ThatllMoveTheChains!!!

I'll call it error because of the large swing is the result of 4 games where his targets were out of whack. I'll also call the reaction kneejerk, just like the one after WW only got targeted once in the first game. Overall they've been throwing less since the Jets game and if it wasn't for the high number of targets WW got in the Phins game his numbers would be trending down too.

I find it odd that many of the same posters that had their panties in a wad after the Titans are happy as clams after the Phins game. Cries of "forcing the ball to a receiver and ignoring another is ruining the offense" have turned into "a receiver is disappearing and another is saving the offense". The logic that when Lloyd is targeted a lot he's the cause of struggles and that when WW is targeted a lot he's bailing them out of struggles is based purely on personal feelings towards the WRs. When WW is targeted 30% more than his season avg the Pats have scored 31, 23, and 23 points; and when Lloyd has been the Pats have scored 18, 30, and 23 points.

Originally Posted by Ivan

Wes Welker leads the league in YAC, Lloyd on the other hand averages 2.5 yards after the catch. which, since he is 6'0 means that he basically falls forward. I like the guy but that's really bad.