Stat's that are the most meaningful. - Page 4 - New England Patriots Forums

Get it shawtaay · 11-17-2012, 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BradyBranch39

there's a ton of confirmation bias going around in this thread.

Care to enlighten us?

supafly · 11-17-2012, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJDChE

You should've picked two games where your model actually did a good job of predicting the outcome. How are you going to convince people that you have a good model when you post an example that predicts 9 points and the actual score was 23?

First of all, if you notice the graph you'll see that the Cardinals scored 20 points in total in a game that we lost 20-18 (not 23 as you stated).

Secondly, one of the drives was for 2 yards coming off of a turnover, so in reality the defense gave up 13 where the graph predicted 9.25, so it's pretty close.

In the PIT game, the final score was 25-17 but 2 points came on a safety, so the defense allowed 23 points where the graph predicted 20.2875.

So what we can take from this "system" is that is can get us within a FG or so, which many others probably can too.

I'm not knocking the system itself, I actually think that it showed results that are relatively close to what it predicted. I am saying that I don't necessarily think that he did a bad job in the 2 games that he showed though as it was pretty close in both.

Get it shawtaay · 11-17-2012, 11:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by supafly

First of all, if you notice the graph you'll see that the Cardinals scored 20 points in total in a game that we lost 20-18 (not 23 as you stated).

Secondly, one of the drives was for 2 yards coming off of a turnover, so in reality the defense gave up 13 where the graph predicted 9.25, so it's pretty close.

In the PIT game, the final score was 25-17 but 2 points came on a safety, so the defense allowed 23 points where the graph predicted 20.2875.

So what we can take from this "system" is that is can get us within a FG or so, which many others probably can too.

I'm not knocking the system itself, I actually think that it showed results that are relatively close to what it predicted. I am saying that I don't necessarily think that he did a bad job in the 2 games that he showed though as it was pretty close in both.

I appreciate your interest in the stat, but again it is only useful for comparing a units performance across games at this point. The PPD-ADJ values cannot be compared to non-adjusted point totals without being normalized somehow.

What you can glean from it is that the defense was universes better in the Cardinals game than in the Steelers game, even though the final scores (23 vs. 20 points allowed) don't tell that story.

When I have some more time I will refine it and try to reach some broader conclusions.

supafly · 11-18-2012, 12:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Get it shawtaay

I appreciate your interest in the stat, but again it is only useful for comparing a units performance across games at this point. The PPD-ADJ values cannot be compared to non-adjusted point totals without being normalized somehow.

What you can glean from it is that the defense was universes better in the Cardinals game than in the Steelers game, even though the final scores (23 vs. 20 points allowed) don't tell that story.

When I have some more time I will refine it and try to reach some broader conclusions.

I appreciate the time, thank you.

One thing we can all agree on is that we need to cut down on the 3rd down conversions, and improve overall in the pass defense itself. That is certain. Other than that the run defense is just fine rather good many times, and the turnovers and red zone efficiency are both very good.

If they could just shave off a couple of pts off the total PPG and improve in the pass defense, we could have a very decent shot at making a deep run into the playoffs based off of the defense alone...of course that's a big "if."