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I have no problem with your numbers. I certainly hope that Branch/Edelman are limited to 25% of the offensive reps. My only nitpick is that I think that 30% for Fells is a bit high.
This board will go bonkers if Welker is on the field only 75% of the time. As was discussed when Hernandez was injured, Welker's reps are reduced with Hernandez taking many of his reps in the slot. Your answer is about 25% of those reps. You seem to know of a plan to reduce Welker's reps to save him for later in the season. I'm not sure that Welker needs this treatment anymore than Lloyd or Hernandez. Given Gronk's blocking, he needs to be on the field 100% of the time, as befits offensive linemen.
I did not state what I wanted to do. I stated that I would expect us to run the 3 WR set 40% of the time a reduction of the 60% last week. The open question is how many WR reps Hernandez will get.
Since you have Fells taking about 1/2 of the 2 TE reps, Hernandez would be in at WR a considerable number of times. Perhaps you believe that we will run the 3 WR set less than 40% of the time.
We will run 3 WRs WAY WAY WAY less than 40% of the time.
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I think there is a more interesting question that how often will 3 WR be used. That is what percentage of the plays will the Pats use 3 TE? I could see as many as 25 plays together for Gronk, Fells and Hernandez with half being runs and the other half passes. My guess is that Hernandez gets 6-8 targeted passes.
I think there is a more interesting question that how often will 3 WR be used. That is what percentage of the plays will the Pats use 3 TE? I could see as many as 25 plays together for Gronk, Fells and Hernandez with half being runs and the other half passes. My guess is that Hernandez gets 6-8 targeted passes.
It's nice to see Belichick's vision of having 3 competant TE's at the same time come true so far, as it has helped with a much more physical approach, and obviously in the running game too. Not only that, but it made a whole lot of people forget about the name (whispers "Brian Waters") as it improved the effectiveness of the line which protects Tom Brady.
Last season, everyone was amazed at the use of the multiple TE sets, but apparently Belichick wanted to take it even one step further with the 3 TE idea and its usage in many more games. In last year's 2011 SB appearance season, we only had 3 TE's active in the same game 5/19 times, or roughly one-quarter of the total games.
This year things seem to be a lot different. I wonder if he didn't take the more physical defensive schedule such as BAL, ARZ, SF, STL, SEA, and HOU into account too? Thus proving that all of the "easy schedule" talk was nothing more than noise to ignore...
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Patiently waiting to defend the next "bubble" player in this summer's training camp.....
We could be debating whether or not he suits up as much as how he factors in to this game. My betting is that, if he does play, he'll be monitored very closely and will probably be on a snap count.
When he does return, just look at previous trends as to how they will use them
The 3WR sets will rarely be touched and a fully healthy Gronk and Hernandez will see the field at least 90% of the time together, so you can bet safely on 3WR Sets getting no more than about 10% usage. We already know this, so why is the question being asked?
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One of the big points of the Pats' offense is that a 2 TE set can become a 3 WR set just by moving Hernandez around, meaning that the defense can't both defend a 2 TE set and a 3 WR set with their preferred personnel in the respective scenarios.
This.
The flexibility of the personnel lets us move into all sorts of different formations.
Consider in week 1 when Hernandez was healthy, we ran every single snap with 2 TEs on the field. The 3 WR package was only run on 7 of 67 snaps, and all 7 of those snaps included 2 TEs.
Hernandez should play as much as possible, and is a much better option than any 3rd WR we currently have.
And ~ for those of you scoring at home ~ Kong isThe Ultimate Tight End.
I'm not quite sure what you mean here, but all I'm trying to say is this: The only reason that GRONK is able to stay on the field for nearly every down is that he's not running downfield on every single play.
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"Momentum was quickly snatched away by New England, who once again proved that any Patriot, at any moment, can make a play." —Inside the NFL, Packers v. Patriots
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I know not many people wanna hear this but I think AH might take time off Welker during running situations to block those big corners. 2TE 2WR with Fells/Gronk and Lloyd/AH.
The running game is putting up 200 plus yards with Welker in there. I'd say that the whole "better blocker" thing has been about as thoroughly debunked as possible.
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"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius
Obviously our base backfield is Gronkowksi, Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd and Ridley. I would think that we would run this 60% of the time.
Where should Hernandez fit in beyond the 2 TE set, if at all? As i said above, I would expect the 2nd TE reps to go up to 60% and the 3rd WR down to 40%.
Q1) Would you expect the running game to be as effective with hernandez as a blocker instead of Fells?
Q2) If Hernandez is to be on the field on more than 60% of the reps, whose reps should go down? I would think that we need to run a 3 WR set at least 40% of the time, perhaps not.
Gronk 100%
Welker 100%
Lloyd 100%
3rd WR 60%
2nd TE 40% (includes straight running plays where both TE's are blockers)
i'll ignore the very few 3 TE formations and also note that the RB is often a receiver.
You and I were discussing this in another thread. I think I suggested something along the lines of
90% Gronk
90% Lloyd
90% Welker
90% Hernandez
That would leave about 40% of the snaps for Edelman/Branch and the TEs to split, plus any time that might come from a personnel package without a true RB.
That still works for me, and you can fudge some of that 5%+/-.
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"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius
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Re: Where Should Hernandez Fit In?
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