ThatllMoveTheChains!!!

Nope still pretty silly considering how the other teams in the div finished and the fact that the defense was somewhat serviceable during the regular season.

patsinthesnow

I hope we keep both, but are we going to spend 20 million a year at the TE position?

Gronk: 12mil/yr
Hernandez: 8mil/yr

Deus Irae

Good comedy, considering the first part of your justification is irrelevant and the second is a "silly" overvaluation of that defense.

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ThatllMoveTheChains!!!

How is the standings of the teams the Pats were competing against for a PO spot irrelevant? The D finished mid pack in points allowed, seems pretty serviceable to me.

I'm guessing it's about time for one of your "I'm not going into this again", "There's so much wrong with this I'm not even going to bother", etc. responses.

Deus Irae

The record of the divisional opponents is irrelevant to whether or not the offense was carrying the team. It doesn't take much thought to figure that out.

The D finishing mid pack in points allowed doesn't mean it was a serviceable defense, particularly given the schedule the team played and the fact that the defense was being supported by the offense putting significant pressure on the team's opponents. Belichick pretty clearly understands that, based upon his offseason moves.

That leads us to....

If you're going to troll, troll better.

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mayoclinic

Maybe, if that's what it takes. And I think the Pats will count Hernandez's money as against the WRs in that scenario. It's not unrealistic:

- New Orleans signed Marques Colston to a 5 year $40M deal with $19M guaranteed. That's roughly what it will take to sign Hernandez. I'd take 22 year old Hernandez over 29 year old Colston with his gimpy knees any day. And Jimmy Graham will push Gronk for top dollar in the TE market if he continues his 2011 play.

- Dallas gave Jason Witten a 5 year $37M contract with $19M guaranteed in 2011. They gave Miles Austin a 7 year $57M contract in 2010 with $18M guaranteed.

Teams can realistically afford to pay 2 non-QB offensive skill players top dollar under the current cap. For example, Philly just gave DeSean Jackson a 5 year $47M contract and LeSean McCoy a 6 year $45M contract. Teams have to be selective about who they pay, or they quickly get into salary cap trouble. But it makes sense right now to view Gronk and Hernandez as the two cornerstone offensive playmakers.

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ThatllMoveTheChains!!!

The record of the divisional opponents is relevant to whether or not the they carried them to the SB. I guess it might take a little more thought to figure that out.

They don't adjust the schedule to be easier because you have a really good O, so I fail to see how that has anything to do with the offense carrying the team. Teams do take more chances as a result of the pressure of the offense, but that doesn't automatically lead to less scoring. By limiting the number of those chances that succeeded I felt the D fulfilled its function adequately. They did so despite lacking talent, which BB is trying to address this offseason.

There's so much fail here that it's not really worth delving into. Does that work better for you?

supafly

I think that they can probably reach an agreement on a much lower number for Gronkowski, especially if they extended him sooner rather than later.

It will depend on exactly 'when' they decide to re-up him of course, as the numbers will rise a bit as time goes on.

It may be right or wrong, but I think they could probably get him at around 9-10 million/yr if they did it at the end of this season.

Hernandez' numbers are probably pretty close as to what it will take, but again, I think waiting too long will only increase his price. Then again, I really don't see either one getting done before the end of this upcoming season.

What would be absolutely ideal is if they also reached a fair agreement with Welker somehow in the meantime, even if it meant that he would only be here another 2-3 years. A bit of creativity could realistically get his cap number to something more managable, at least for the next 2 yrs on a 3 yr deal. Then the team could have the best of both worlds.

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patsfaninpittsburgh

Best way to determine the correct course of action.

See what the Douche thinks and do the opposite.

It's simply amazing how clueless some can be on such a simple topic. Please note above a perfect example of why complex and clueless should never be mixed.

What part of "either/or" makes this so difficult?

The one part of this equation that is interesting is when will TB's cap number come into play.

MoLewisrocks

I don't think citing teams who can't even win their division establishes what you can do under the cap. It's debatable that either TE here will establish or reset the market, let alone both. The only way either would approach even the new money you project would be if they were signed this season with 2 years left on their rookie deals - the salaries of which would drastically mitigate their total deal AAV and cap going forward.

You can only afford so many top tier deals on a roster in total and still have the capacity to do what we do which is build quality depth through both FA and the draft. Right now this team has 3 players on top tier deals. 4 if you count Wilfork based specifically on the NT designation as opposed to DL in general. That's as many as we've ever had in Bill's tenure. We have only one WR signed passed next season (absent projecting a 7th round rookie who can't even participate in OTA's this season and may or may not ever see the field) and he will be 33 in his third and final season in 2014. We have only 2 RB's signed who will be entering contract seasons as a tandem in 2014. As will be the starting LT. Not to mention the guy whose blind side he mans.

Retaining one of the TE's will be a necessity. (But then that seemed to be the case with the young WR's entering 2006 and somehow we retained neither.) The obvious choice being Gronkowski. Retaining the other will be a luxury, and whether or not it's one they can afford will depend on lots of things even they can't even project let alone be confident of at this juncture. Although they can probably project the cap as well as the cost of tagging a TE in 2014 and even retagging in 2015. It was the least expensive position to tag this season at $5.4M. It will likely remain in the $6M range come 2014 based on the new formula that averages the top 5 deals over the previous 5 seasons as well as adjustments in cap. That figure will be used by this team as leverage against both TE's when they begin negotiations. Oddly if all 3 of Welker, Gronk and Hernendez were playing under the tag this season we would still be about $4M under the cap...because base tags are not top tier $$$ at either position any more.

Then there is the defense, where we don't have a DB signed other than two 6th and 7th round rookie picks drafted this season...and Tavon Wilson...so there is that. Or a LB not named Mayo, or a NT or... The whole world doesn't revolve around the TE's. Besides, Bill has a penchant for drafting them. The roster is a little thin come 2015 with just a half a dozen players under contract... Having two TE's under contract for $20M per may not seem like such a difference maker by then unless we can also secure a QB adept at utilizing them and the kind of WR's and RB's and Oline that allow them to flourish - not to mention enough talent on the other side of the ball and on ST to allow it to matter.

We won three rings with little more than the likes of Jermaine Wiggins and Daniel Graham and Christian Fauria at TE and a collection of heart and soul midget WR's and a 6th round QB manning the skill positions on offense. I can point out lots of teams that took a different approach, some of whom occasionally met with success but most of whom never approached it - so what would be the point. Bill isn't in the habit of collecting or even retaining elite talent. He's in the habit of teambuilding. Take Welker out of the equation and the young TE's may be targeted more, by scheming DC's as well as our QB.

Welker has never gotten his due here, hell - NEM wanted to trade him once Moss and Stallworth were signed - rather it's gone to the talent he facilitates in the process of performing here at a consistent and now record setting pace in whatever version of this offense whichever revolving OC here is attempting to run. But Wes has been a product of talent bias his whole life so what else is new...

The only reason Wes doesn't have a long term deal in place is because at 31 they knew they could eff with him and he'd still show up and more determined than ever to prove them wrong. For his contract year, under a franchise tag that is barely top ten average under the new formula. And they know they can eff with him all year if they choose to because he will continue to want to prove them wrong as well as want to remain here even after being effed with just because they could. Even after getting more value out of him than they likely ever dared to dream they could, that's the kind of leverage this FO can hardly bear to part with because they don't often realize it. Sucks, but it is what it is and that's all it is.