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Old 06-20-2008, 05:51 PM   #41
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Default Re: Patriots D in 2008 - IMPROVED

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Good LORD a lot of these stats are example of how numbers can lie. Can we please try to have a clue about what we actually SAW? He's not awful, but he didn't have a good season. He's a middle-of-the-road #2 DB. He isn't CLOSE to as good as Asante, no matter what the stats "show." Give me a break.

New England fans are supposed to be smart, canny and candid. Let's act like it.
Here's what we saw:

1.) When the team rolled coverage to one side of the field, it was usually to Samuel's side, not Hobbs, even though Hobbs was facing the opponent's #1 receiver most of the time.

2.) Hobbs' percentage numbers were almost identical to Samuel's, despite having to face the opponent's #1 receiver most of the time.

3.) Hobbs surrendered fewer touchdowns than Samuel, despite having to face the opponent's #1 receiver most of the time.
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Old 06-20-2008, 06:26 PM   #42
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Default Re: Patriots D in 2008 - IMPROVED

Once again, an example of the numbers lying. NOBODY but the most aggregious Patriots homer actually thinks that Hobbs is even CLOSE to as good as Asante Samuel, let alone better - as you are implying with that "we rolled the coverage to Samuel's side." Just please give me a break. You hold an asinine position. Help yourself out - stop.
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Old 06-20-2008, 08:51 PM   #43
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Default Re: Patriots D in 2008 - IMPROVED

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This is, of course, just a guess, and a guess from someone who does not downplay the huge loss that IS Asante Samuel. But the combination of several factors, listed below, leads me to believe that the defense will be markedly better this season. Not the kind of historic jump we saw the offense take in 2007, but a jump just the same.

I am not buying, at least not yet. Samuel is better than any CB on their roster, Colvin is much better than the #3 OLB on the roster.

Plus last year the defense was damn good, 4th in PPG (17.1 PPG) and 1st in the playoffs in PPG (tied with Gints with 16.3).


There is some sense that the defense was poor last year and needs a drastic overhaul, I would gladly take similar stats as last season.
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Old 06-20-2008, 09:18 PM   #44
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There is some sense that the defense was poor last year and needs a drastic overhaul, I would gladly take similar stats as last season.
I'm not sure who has the "sense" that the defense was poor. That isn't supported by reality. It is reasonable to come to the conclusion that the defense needed a change of "flavor" for a changing league. More quickness and short-area pursuit skills. You have to be able to defend crossing routes, slants and quick outs.

Samuel couldn't play horizontal routes very effectively. Gay was only slightly less suckish playing sideline to sideline. Bruschi tries real hard but is slowing down each year.

Are the Pats better in 2008 with Bryant, Wheatley and Mayo getting reps? Depends. Are they better playing the same style as 2007 (soft zone, limited blitzing, keep the ball in front of you, wait for mistakes)? Unlikely. Are they better playing a more aggressive style where the QB has to make quicker decisions? Almost certainly.
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Old 06-20-2008, 09:26 PM   #45
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I'm not sure who has the "sense" that the defense was poor. That isn't supported by reality. It is reasonable to come to the conclusion that the defense needed a change of "flavor" for a changing league. More quickness and short-area pursuit skills. You have to be able to defend crossing routes, slants and quick outs.

Samuel couldn't play horizontal routes very effectively. Gay was only slightly less suckish playing sideline to sideline. Bruschi tries real hard but is slowing down each year.

Are the Pats better in 2008 with Bryant, Wheatley and Mayo getting reps? Depends. Are they better playing the same style as 2007 (soft zone, limited blitzing, keep the ball in front of you, wait for mistakes)? Unlikely. Are they better playing a more aggressive style where the QB has to make quicker decisions? Almost certainly.
No doubt they good use more speed at ILB, Mayo should be a big help on 3rd downs. Watching Seau and/or Bruschi covering a RB was tough to watch, but despite these glaring weaknesses the defense was very good. They has always favored a bend but don't break approach, I don't expect this to change in 08. I was trying to think of what the longest play against them was last year, honestly I can't remember any really big plays against. A 'more aggressive style' is some shiny new thing that fans can latch onto but my sense based on history is that BB wants consistency and expects his defenses to average between 15-19 PPG.
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Old 06-20-2008, 09:44 PM   #46
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Default Re: Patriots D in 2008 - IMPROVED

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I am not buying, at least not yet. Samuel is better than any CB on their roster, Colvin is much better than the #3 OLB on the roster.

Plus last year the defense was damn good, 4th in PPG (17.1 PPG) and 1st in the playoffs in PPG (tied with Gints with 16.3).


There is some sense that the defense was poor last year and needs a drastic overhaul, I would gladly take similar stats as last season.
Colvin missed a lot of time last year - not as much as some think, but significant time just the same. And I don't believe anyone thinks last year's D was poor. Not even close to poor. Just overrated.
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Old 06-20-2008, 09:59 PM   #47
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Great statements, but they lead me to the opposite conclusion

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They has always favored a bend but don't break approach
Correct, but they also always had the underlying belief that they could get off the field when they really needed to. They continued to do that last year with key stops vs. Indy, Philly, Balt and the 1st Giants game...but the margin for error was razor thin. And that razor cut the Pats fairly deep in February.

Reminds me of the KC game in 2002. Pats were defending champs and rolling right along, but you could see that the defense had a large hole (*cough* Steve Martin *cough*) that could be exploited. They were winning and the alternatives were likely limited, so Belichick stayed the course and that season was pretty painful at times.

The hole in the 2007 defense is equally obvious. Not many teams can take advantage of it enough to win...but the teams that can are generally still playing in January.

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A 'more aggressive style' is some shiny new thing that fans can latch onto but my sense based on history is that BB wants consistency and expects his defenses to average between 15-19 PPG.
Interesting choice of words that I put in bold. Your thinking is solid...Pats score 30 ppg and allow 17 ppg, they should win most of them. I think Belichick looks for consistency in situations, not averaged across games. Red zone, 3rd/4th down, 2 minute. The defense was fairly inconsistent in these situations. Averaged over a year, the stats look very good. But when it is one-n-done, that inconsistency can be a killer. As we are all painfully aware.
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Old 06-21-2008, 09:40 AM   #48
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Once again, an example of the numbers lying. NOBODY but the most aggregious Patriots homer actually thinks that Hobbs is even CLOSE to as good as Asante Samuel, let alone better - as you are implying with that "we rolled the coverage to Samuel's side." Just please give me a break. You hold an asinine position. Help yourself out - stop.
You should take your own advice and just stop.
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Old 06-21-2008, 09:53 AM   #49
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Reminds me of the KC game in 2002. Pats were defending champs and rolling right along, but you could see that the defense had a large hole (*cough* Steve Martin *cough*) that could be exploited. They were winning and the alternatives were likely limited, so Belichick stayed the course and that season was pretty painful at times.
Ah yes, the game where Priest ran for ~6000 yards and set the blueprint for every other team who played the Pats that year.
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Old 06-21-2008, 11:58 AM   #50
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Ah yes, the game where Priest ran for ~6000 yards and set the blueprint for every other team who played the Pats that year.
That was also around the time of the Beli-jeopardy press conference. Remember the O-T-I-S answer? Belichick was loose and playful with the media. Pats then lost 4 straight. Last time we've seen a press conference like that.
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