Suspicious Results in Repeat Games - Page 2 - New England Patriots Forums

Metaphors · 05-14-2008, 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BelichickFan

I agree with the premise here but a simple point is - if you play a team the second time in a season, of course you will change your signals or you're flat out stupid. Oh, and stealing signals is legal anyway.

You have half a brain (and likely significantly more) and aren't buying what Specter is peddling. I was looking to see if there was a significant statistical linkage to offensive production in repeat games. Since nobody knows how the tapes were used, any response to the "tainted championships" would be opinion...which would be no more valid than the opposing side. There is no way you can look at the game results objectively and come to any conclusion except:

A) The Pats derived limited gameday benefit from the taping
B) The Pats knew exactly what defenses were throwing at them but were so inept they couldn't take advantage

***ALP*** · 05-14-2008, 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Metaphors

You have half a brain (and likely significantly more) and aren't buying what Specter is peddling. I was looking to see if there was a significant statistical linkage to offensive production in repeat games. Since nobody knows how the tapes were used, any response to the "tainted championships" would be opinion...which would be no more valid than the opposing side. There is no way you can look at the game results objectively and come to any conclusion except:

A) The Pats derived limited gameday benefit from the taping
B) The Pats knew exactly what defenses were throwing at them but were so inept they couldn't take advantage

look, for u guys who say his point is irrelevent...it is not

Specter accusses the pats of having an advantage, that advantage is supposed to lead to more wins, and better offensive production

well, show me that advantage at work, and then we can argue about the pats having an advantage

from everything i have heard, the pats can have EVERY defensive signal, and its not gonna help em jack squat

Afterlifemobile-86 · 05-14-2008, 11:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Metaphors

If you go through all the Pats games from 2000-2006, there are 38 times (including pre-season and post-season) where the Pats played a team for the 2nd time in the same season (or 3rd time with Jets in 2006). I'm not including games across seasons because if you don't change signs during the off-season, there is no helping you.

Looking at all games where the offense gained significantly (> 7 points...easier to analyze than yards gained) in the repeat performance, there are only 15 instances of "suspicious" games. I didn't include pre-season since it is hard to draw any conclusions from them.

Dropping the games where the scoring differential can be explained by home field, events (Bledsoe injury and Milloy situation) or just team suckage (2000 Pats), you are left with 8 games in 7 years...5 where the Pats offense got significantly better in the later meeting, 3 where the opponents got better:

Pats Advantage
2004 NYJ: 13-7 win at home, 23-7 win at NY
2004 PIT: 20-34 loss at PIT, 41-27 win at PIT (playoffs)
2005 BUF: 21-16 win at home, 35-7 win at BUF
2006 BUF: 19-17 win at home, 28-6 win at BUF
2006 NYJ: 24-17 win at NY, 14-17 loss at home, 37-16 win at home (playoffs)

Opponent Advantage
2002 NYJ: 44-7 win at NY, 17-30 loss at home
2005 MIA: 23-16 win at MIA, 26-28 loss at home
2006 MIA: 20-10 win at home, 0-21 loss at MIA

That's it. I believe you can explain away all of the Pats improvements. The PIT games are easy due to the 2 special teams TDs. The opponent games get a little more difficult to understand the differentials, but that is another story.

If anyone can find statistical evidence that the Pats offense improved significantly in repeat performances, I'd love to hear it.

Oh, piss off you little troll.....