Disco Volante

Offense

PPG
Pats: 36.8 (1st)
Jags: 25.7 (6th)

YPG
Pats: 411.2 (1st)
Jags: 357.4 (7th)

Passing YPG
Pats: 295.7 (1st)
Jags: 208.0 (17th)

Rushing YPG
Pats: 115.6 (13th)
Jags: 149.4 (2nd)

Touchdowns
Pats: 75
Jags: 50

Time of Possession
Pats: 32:30
Jags: 32:07

1st Downs
Pats: 393
Jags: 328

3rd Down Conversions
Pats: 48%
Jags: 46%

4th Down Conversions
Pats: 71%
Jags: 58%

Defense

PPG
Pats: 17.1 (4th)
Jags: 19 (10th)

YPG
Pats: 288.3 (4th)
Jags: 313.8 (12th)

Passing YPG
Pats: 190.1 (6th)
Jags: 213.5 (15th)

Rushing YPG
Pats: 98.2 (10th)
Jags: 100.3 (11th)

Touchdowns
Pats: 34
Jags: 35

Time of Possession
Pats: 27:24
Jags: 27:52

1st Downs
Pats: 278
Jags: 286

3rd Down Conversions
Pats: 34%
Jags: 40%

4th Down Conversions
Pats: 55%
Jags: 48%

Turnover Ratio
Pats: +16
Jags: +9

Last 3 Games

(2006) Week 16
Patriots 24
Jaguars 21

(2005) Wild Card
Patriots 28
Jaguars 3

(2003) Week 15
Patriots 27
Jaguars 13

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BradyFTW!

Let's be honest- this isn't an ideal matchup for us. That said, I still think the Pats will win handily. BB will probably design a gameplan around stopping the run at all costs and making Garrard beat them in the air. And he certainly didn't look prepared to hang with Brady yesterday, so I think we'll be fine.

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chrisfx811

No way.... all the talking heads said the Jags are tougher, better on defense, and built for these types of games.
Get outta here with stats that don't back that up!

Disco Volante

Field Goals

Steven Gostkowski
Percentage: 87.5 (21/24)
Long: 45

Josh Scobee
Percentage: 92.3 (12/13)
Long: 48

Kickoffs

Steven Gostkowski
AVG: 64.5
TBs: 15
AVG Start: 22.1

Josh Scobee
AVG: 64.8
TBs: 12
AVG Start: 22.5

Punting

Chris Hanson
AVG: 41.4
Net Yards: 1,626
In 20: 13
Blocked: 1

Adam Podlesh
AVG: 41.6
Net Yards: 1,991
In 20: 14
Blocked: 0

Basically equal stuff there.

I'll be giving Steve the advantage for field goals, due to almost twice as many attempts.

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BelichickFan

For comparison above :

On the road Jax scores 24.75 and allows 23.75 (didn't add in yesterday's air tight game).

At home we score 34.375 and allow 12.875

So when factoring in HF, the splits widen.

Disco Volante

Kick Returns

Pats
AVG Return: 22.5
Yards: 1384
Long: 108
TD: 2

Jags
AVG Return: 22.7
Yards: 1110
Long: 100
TD: 1

Punt Returns

Pats
AVG Return: 9.4
Long: 35
TD: 0

Jags
AVG Return: 10.1
Long: 56
TD: 0

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patsfan135

I agree with you if they beat pitsburgh by 3 pionts, we killed pitsburgh.But we need to have a plan to eliminate the run and make Garrard beat us with the pass.

Disco Volante

I really don't see the Jags being within 9.

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DarrylS

One stat not often listed is defensive passer rating:

Jax 76.1 allowing 20 TD passes
Pats 78.1 allowing 23 TD passes

So that is pretty close..

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"Being the best doesn't mean you always win. It just means you win more than anyone else".. tweet from Kurt Warner to Tom Brady.

Metaphors

Note all stats from 2005-2007

Pats on Turf = 32-6
Jags on Turf = 1-6

Besides the annual Indy loss, this includes losses at NO, BUF and STL with only a Jets 6 point win to show for it. Obviously this is not a team built to play (particularly defend) on turf and they don't have a lot of experience on it.

Pats When 10+ Point Favorite = 15-1
Jags When 10+ Point Underdog = 0-0

Obviously the Pats take care of business when heavily favored (as most teams do) but the key here is that the Jags have not played as a heavy underdog recently. It will be interesting to see how they handle it.

Pats with Extra Week = 3-0
Jags with No Break = 29-16

Give Belichick/coaches an extra week and they will be ready. Further evidence is that the Pats generally start the season strong (2003 excluded) and have won all 3 titles with a bye week before the playoffs.