brdmaverick

Monday Night's Game REALLY is for the AFC East Title (well, most likely)

Here's the thing, I was originally thinking that the Pats could win vs. the Jets but still conceivably lose one of their other remaining games. Assuming the Jets win out (after the Pats game) I was thinking that the Jets would hold the tie breaker. I figured their loss to Green Bay (NFC team) would be the tie breaker.


After further review, that is currently not true.
IF Pat win vs. Jets but lose to CHI or GB, they would still hold the tie breaker if the Jets win out.

Here are the tie breakers.....

1.) head to head - season series would be split, move to step 2
2.) division record - both teams would be 5-1, move to step 3
3.) record vs. common opponents - all losses would be to common opponents, so records would be identical (uncommon opponents Pats = Chargers, Colts; Jets = Broncos, Texans)
4.) strength of victory - if Pats lose to GB or CHI, they would have an 8 game advantage for this tie breaker currently; Pats have beaten stronger teams (or to look at it the other way, Pats would have lost to weaker teams than the Jets) Pat would have lost to Jets/Browns/Bears ; while the Jets would have lost to the Ravens/Packers/Patriots


EDIT: I did forget CONFERNCE RECORD which comes after common opponents, BUT if we lost to the BEARS or the PACKERS we would have the same conference record as the JETS (we would be 3-1 vs. NFC and Jets would be 3-1 NFC, so it would still go to strenght of victory)

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BlueThunder

Patriots are winning the rest of their games...so this point is moot

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brdmaverick

I would like to think so, too. But if they beat the Jets, it's good to know they have a mulligan if needed.

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Patsfanin Philly

Between #3 and #4 is best conference record.....
NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures

PatsFanSince74

Tie-breakers make my head hurt, but I do think that the Conference Record comes into play somewhere before you get to schedule strength. In that case, on your scenario, we'd have two Conference losses (Jets and Browns) vs. one for the Jets. [Edit: not trying to pile on...just saw the post right above.]

But, your analysis assumes that the Jets go to Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers. I'm not ready to assume that.

It is time to start wondering about these things, though. I'm just not clear yet on how this is going to play out.

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LoganMankinsPancakeBlocks

Well, if we beat the Jets and don't trip up vs Miami or Buffalo, worst case scenario (Jets beating the Steelers) is we'd be tied in conference record too. We'd each have losses in the conference to each other, they'd have one vs Baltimore and we'd have one vs Cleveland. Right now the Jets have 1 conference loss and we have 2, but you are forgetting they'd have another 1 vs us next week if we win.

So looks like the OP was right, despite leaving out 1 tie breaker. We'd win it on strength of victory.

moosekill

Jets have Patriots away, Steelers away, and Bears away. Three very tough games, add to that the dolphins and the bills.

The Pats have the Jets at home, Green Bay, at home, Chicago away, and the Dolphins and Bills.

So both teams have three very good teams left to play along with two division teams. Both teams play Chicago at Chicago. The Patriots have two of the three tough teams at home, while the Jets have all three away. They both have the Dolphins at home, and the Pats are away at Buffalo, while the Jets have them at home.
Which schedule would you rather have.

moosekill

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

moosekill

So, if the Pats beat the Jets, then we have the Pats with a 1 game lead, both having lost 1 division game, and 2 conference games, with the jets having lost against Green Bay. If we assume, for argument purposes, that both the Pats and Jets beat Miami, and the Bills, a big assumption but that is the odds, then if the Jets win out and the Pats lose one more game, all of those tie breakers will be even.

Then it goes to strength of victory.

Definition: A part of the NFL's tiebreaking proceedure, strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten.
Examples:
If two teams end with identical records, combine the records of the opponents in each of the team's wins and calculate the total winning percentage. The team whose opponents have the higher winning percentage wins the tiebreaker.

This should go to the Patriots.

LoganMankinsPancakeBlocks

Correct. If we beat the Jets, we can afford a loss to GB or Chicago but can't afford to trip up against the Dolphins or Bills.

It's also worth noting, that winning this week would give us a VERY good chance at home field throughout. Since we beat the Steelers and Ravens head to head, we lead them by 1 game and we have the tie breaker. We'd basically have a 2 game lead (or 1.5) in the home field race. Of course, if we lose, we are basically a lock to be the 5th seed, opening up wild card weekend on the road. HUGE game.