PATRIOTSFANINPA

Uh.....didn't make a damn difference when they met in Foxboro last January,did it?

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Metaphors

Couple of points:

1) Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

2) Every team wants a disciplined, team defense. The Jets do. The Jags do too. That is really independent of scheme.

3) You don't have to be overly aggressive to force takeaways. But you do have to position your defensive players in ways and places that the QB, blockers and ball carriers don't expect.

In the Fins game for example, on both of his interceptions Ninkovich gave an initial look at the snap and moved laterally to get the pick...

On the first, showed an outside zone look but then sprinted inside to undercut Marshall on a seam route. 4-man rush that didn't get any pressure at all, but Henne thought he had a safe throw on his primary receiver. Ninkovich came from outside his field of vision.

On the second, chucked the slot receiver inside and then jumped a dumpoff outside to Cobbs. Blitz got just enough pressure to make Henne go to his check-down option quickly. Again, Ninkovich came across the field from where Henne thought he would be (following Marshall or sitting in a zone inside) to an area that should have been uncovered.

My point is that you don't have to run an all-out blitz and play press man to force a turnover. You just have to outsmart the offense. Back to the Jets game, Sanchez completed 70% of his passes. In 23 career starts, he has only hit 60% 5 times...2 of them against the Pats. Seriously, he has a 60% completion percentage in 2 out of 3 games against the Pats...only 3 out of 20 games against the rest of the league (once with the Colts not trying).

I think that speaks volumes about waiting for turnovers to occur.

MoLewisrocks

There will be a rookie cap in 2011, with or without a new CBA. A lot of underclassmen came out last year for that very reason.

patfanken

Can't disagree with any of your points, Box, but my point remains just as valid. We will get 6 picks in the first 90 next April. I will assume that they will make the team. You can also assume that 1 or 2 of the lower picks or UDFAs will also make the team. That's ANOTHER 8 new faces. Add that to the fact that as weak as the over all draft class is looking (right now), that's how strong the 2011 FA class is looking. Its hard to think that BB won't be very active in that FA class. But for the sake of discussion lets assume we pick up 2 FAs that make the team. That's 10-11 new players, or about a 20% turn over rate, on a team that will also have 3 starters coming back off the IR (Warren, Boddin, and Kazcur). Maybe 4 if Faulk tries again.

Let me ask you Box, what 14 guys on the current roster are going to be gone next season after the draft picks, FAs and IR guys come back

So in the end, what is the LIKELY value of a mid 4th round pick going to be compared to the value that Branch can add right now, considering what our roster situation is likely to be. Not judging here, just asking

HEY BRO! WHAT UP?

I'd rather be at home than away.

The point is that teams can't afford to drop AFC games especially when your losing the tie breaker in your own division. It's the exact reason why they missed the playoffs in 2008.

Losing to the Ravens this week would be a major blow.

Box_O_Rocks

Despite a dismal 2009 season, who here would have predicted another 12 draft picks + UDFAs battling for a roster slot? Who would have predicted McKenzie and Orhnberger to the Practice Squad? What 14 guys on the current roster move on?

BB traded Seymour and Moss in their contract years; per Patscap.com the following will be entering a contract year:

Deion Branch, WR
Dan Connolly, C
Alge Crumpler, TE
Dan Koppen, C
Gary Guyton, LB
Mark Levoir, OT
Brandon Meriweather, S
Stephen Neal, G
Rob Ninkovich, LB
James Sanders, S
Matt Slater, WR
Wes Welker, WR
Terrence Wheatley, CB
Jonathan Wilhite, CB

That's 14 players right there. Miguel also forecasts the following players entering Free Agency next March:

Kevin Faulk, RB
Matt Light, OT
Logan Mankins, G
Brandon McGowan, S
Sammy Morris, RB
Quinn Ojinnaka, OT
Jarrod Page, S
Fred Taylor, RB
Tracy White, LB

The normal attrition of the NFL and of Belichick's team management approach gives me reason to believe there could be 14 new faces on the 53 next September.

You speculate on what Branch can do right now; many people here seem to expect a return to 2004 glory, others, and I may as well include myself in this perspective, see a declining player with a significant drop in production through the first quarter of the season. Where will Branch settle within that range? I really can't tell you and I doubt BB could either - we're both guessing. Which is why I call Branch insurance and binky:
-- He's insurance given Welker and Edelman are both still rehabbing injuries.
-- He's a binky because Tommy Brady just lost his Moss, and surrounded by youngsters he's trying to develop it might be nice for him to have a veteran with whom he has a high degree of trust (I just hate the idea of giving him another declining player - and I think you and I both saw Moss as slowing - to whom Tommy might feel compelled to force throws).

When assessing likely value of a 4th round pick we both try to see it from the context of BB's perspective:
-- insurance v. an investment in the future
-- immediate production v. future production
-- a veteran influence for the current youngsters v. future talent

This trade was just BB's conservative side, and his belief he can turn one or more of those 6 earlier picks into enough Day Three picks if his draft board offers opportunity. I believe he can do it too, but expect much ranting from the trade up for quality draftniks - I'm getting my quality v. quantity complaints in early, nothing in Branch's time in Seattle precludes me to believe he's a quality draft selection at 31.

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Box_O_Rocks

Goodall has already promised there won't be one.

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patsfaninpittsburgh

Great thread until........

Why so much projection about Branch's role? Maybe is just going to be a component in the offense.

If we are going back to the open receiver gets the ball concept, we don't need him to MossRice. He needs to do his job and make plays when called upon.

Metaphors

I remember Mort reporting that but I don't recall Goodell actually saying it.

ALP

wait, so next draft when we have raiders 1st rd pick there is NO rookie cap?

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Last time I lived in New England the Pats became a Dynasty

Then I moved away and they haven't won since

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