solman

I must have read a dozen articles this week describing Adam Vinatieri as "the greatest clutch kicker in the history of the NFL" or something similar.

How do you make such a determination?

As nearly as I can tell this reputation comes from hitting kicks of:

45 yards to force OT in the snow
23 yards to win in the snow
48 yards to win in a dome
41 yards to win in a dome

Its not that I don't appreciate his performance. But what are the odds of an NFL kicker going 4-0 on those kicks? If all Field Goals were 80% likely to be successful, we'd expect this to happen 41% of the time.

Is there actually something special about Adam V. ?

Or is he a good kicker who happened to have above average luck on the four kicks that mattered most in his career.

oldrover

Who's hit bigger field goals, more often? Can you think of ANYONE?




Didn't think so.

apricissimus

And how exactly would you determine that he just got lucky those four times? I don't think you can, and since sports is a results based meritocracy, I don't see any choice than to say Vinatieri deserved his reputation.

I'd also say that the odds of hitting those snow bowl kicks against the Raiders is something far less than 80%.

Murphys95

The important aspect missing from those listed...they were all in the playoffs and Super Bowl. Every one of them was a high-pressure kick. It's the moment that makes the man, and every one of those kicks were made on the grand stage. I don't think it's unreasonable to say that Vinatieri is the greatest clutch kicker in the History on of the NFL. But for the sake of argument - who, other than Adam, could also wear that moniker?

Oh, and I would also add his 46 yard kick versus Tennessee in the 2003 Divisional Playoffs to that list.

Fencer

It was more than that. There was also a series of overtime game-winners those years where the Pats were winning LOTS of close games (sometimes after he had an earlier miss).

And a cold, late postseason kick against the Titans (after he blew one earlier in the game).

I agree that his reputation was exaggerated, but the case isn't as extreme as you were suggesting.

solman

I read a NYT article a few weeks ago that claimed that Adam was 20 out of 25 on all potential game winning or overtime sending kicks. (or something like that)

He's not actually any better in random clutch situations than he is in non-clutch situations. (After last week, he's actually worse in the clutch).

But the four most important clutch situations in his career all turned out well.

Had even one of those four been unsuccessful, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

What I wonder is whether the four successful kicks are a consequence of random chance, or if Adam V. has some special quality that makes him far more likely to hit those kicks than other good kickers.

I don't think its preposterous to suggest that Adam has such a quality. Certainly Mike V. has a special quality that makes him LESS likely to hit clutch kicks than other good kickers.

But I don't know how we can reach such a conclusion based on his body of work.

apricissimus

Again, how the heck would you ever determine that he was just lucky when it counted most? I think this line of thinking is silly.

apricissimus

What does it mean to be lucky as a kicker anyway? Is kicking a field goal not purely a matter of skill? I'm not clear where luck enters into it.

Pats Fan in Indy

He NEVER missed one when it counted... up until last Sunday. Can you think of a single field goal that he has missed throughout his entire career that cost his team the game?

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Vince Wilfork... nuff said.

363839

Well he did. I believe it was in the 90's 1998 I think.
He missed a kick against KC. Cost us the game and the playoffs I think.