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Old 01-12-2007, 10:20 AM   #1
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Default Tomlinson is not Superman

He is very very good. But something interesting.

When he plays good defenses he usually has 1 long run that
transforms him from average to superman.
Take away the one long run and look at his stats.

Bal 26/69 2.6y/c
Oak 18/65 3.6y/c
Den 27/86 3.18y/c
Den 19/81 4.26y/c
Seat 21/61 2.9y/c

So let him have his one 50 to 80 yard run then
we are dealing with a managable running back.

Not so Baaad!
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Old 01-12-2007, 10:25 AM   #2
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Default Re: Tomlinson is not Superman

LT running the ball doesn't scare me (against our defense). LT in a seem route in the open field one-on-one with our safeties does. I am very content to give him 4 yards a carry and let them think he is running well than have them throw him out in the slot.
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Old 01-12-2007, 10:29 AM   #3
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Default Re: Tomlinson is not Superman

Well, we can't know that for sure. If he were Superman, he'd have an alter ego, and I suppose it COULD be Tomlinson. Come to think of it, how come we never see both of them at the same time?
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Old 01-12-2007, 10:31 AM   #4
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Default Re: Tomlinson is not Superman

As Football Outsiders says, he's the #1 RB but #13 on "Successful Runs" which means he's just above average on the median play but "Superman" on breaking long ones. Controlling his long ones is the defensive key.
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Old 01-12-2007, 10:40 AM   #5
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Default Re: Tomlinson is not Superman

Quote:
Originally Posted by NEM View Post
Thats an interesting point. Is there a list of RB's on "successful" runs?
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb.php

The two columns on the right are the Success Rate. The second to the right is the % and the rightmost is the rank.
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Old 01-12-2007, 10:55 AM   #6
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Default Re: Tomlinson is not Superman

Year Team G GS Att Yds Avg Lg TD 20+ 1st
2001 San Diego Chargers 16 16 339 1236 3.6 54 10 7 67
2002 San Diego Chargers 16 16 372 1683 4.5 76 14 12 90
2003 San Diego Chargers 16 16 313 1645 5.3 73 13 12 81
2004 San Diego Chargers 15 15 339 1335 3.9 42 17 6 68
2005 San Diego Chargers 16 16 339 1462 4.3 62 18 8 71
2006 San Diego Chargers 16 16 348 1815 5.2 85 28 12 81
TOTAL 95 95 2050 9176 4.5 85 100 57 458

Those stats sure look like Superman to me. I'm a huge Pats fan, but after 6 years, Tomlinson is already a Hall of Fame 1st ballot lock. 100 TD's after 6 years ? That sure sounds like Superman, the guy is incredible.
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Old 01-12-2007, 11:00 AM   #7
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Default Re: Tomlinson is not Superman

Quote:
Originally Posted by scott99 View Post
2004 San Diego Chargers 15 15 339 1335 3.9 42 17 6 68
2005 San Diego Chargers 16 16 339 1462 4.3 62 18 8 71
2006 San Diego Chargers 16 16 348 1815 5.2 85 28 12 81
TOTAL 95 95 2050 9176 4.5 85 100 57 458

Those stats sure look like Superman to me.
This year's average is sick, sure. 3.9 and 4.3 in two years before ? Nice, but . . .
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Old 01-12-2007, 11:02 AM   #8
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Default Re: Tomlinson is not Superman

Quote:
Originally Posted by JR4 View Post
He is very very good. But something interesting.

When he plays good defenses he usually has 1 long run that
transforms him from average to superman.
Take away the one long run and look at his stats.

Bal 26/69 2.6y/c
Oak 18/65 3.6y/c
Den 27/86 3.18y/c
Den 19/81 4.26y/c
Seat 21/61 2.9y/c

So let him have his one 50 to 80 yard run then
we are dealing with a managable running back.

Not so Baaad!
dont know about seattle but denver has lynch, bal has ed reed

we dont have rodney
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Old 01-12-2007, 11:23 AM   #9
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Default Re: Tomlinson is not Superman

Quote:
Originally Posted by BelichickFan View Post
Controlling his long ones is the defensive key.
Actually -- your sig is the key.

Both of their RBs will get past the LOS -- but how far? Pats LBs and DBs have missed some tackles this season. Like to see them work hard for their yards -- no gifts in this game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mgcolby View Post
I am very content to give him 4 yards a carry and let them think he is running well than have them throw him out in the slot.
As long as he doesn't get the ball on first AND second down. 4 + 4 = 3rd and 2. They'll be no pressure on Rivers with that scenario.
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Old 01-12-2007, 11:35 AM   #10
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Default Re: Tomlinson is not Superman

Quote:
Originally Posted by JR4 View Post
He is very very good. But something interesting.

When he plays good defenses he usually has 1 long run that
transforms him from average to superman.
Take away the one long run and look at his stats.

Bal 26/69 2.6y/c
Oak 18/65 3.6y/c
Den 27/86 3.18y/c
Den 19/81 4.26y/c
Seat 21/61 2.9y/c

So let him have his one 50 to 80 yard run then
we are dealing with a managable running back.

Not so Baaad!


Such a completely useless view point. You could say that about ANY great back in history. I hope you guys underestimate him.
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