PromisedLand

Watching the game yesterday, I had the distinct impression that our run D was doing it's usual excellent job up to the point of the Seau injury, and after the injury it was giving up a lot of yards on the ground. I did some analysis to test this subjective impression, and the stats dramatically bear it out:

Run Defense V Bears
With Junior:
Att Yds Avg Long TD
12 34 2.8 14 0

After his injury:
Att Yds Avg Long TD
24 119 5.0 17 1

The Bears averaged almost twice the yards per carry after Junior went down! This does not bode well for the rest of the season and of course, the postseason. Coming into yesterday's game we were allowing a stingy 3.3 yards per carry - amongst the best in the league - with Seau yesterday we improved on that, but without him we allowed 5.0 ypc which if it were for the whole season is the same as New Orleans 31st rank run defense.

This is scary, folks, especially considering who we have backing him up. Admittedly the sample size is small, but the pre- and post-injury stats are so dramatically different I think they are nonetheless significant. We'll see how this plays out in coming weeks, but right now I think we will look back on this injury as a huge setback in our bid for #4.

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Willie55

Move Vrabel inside and start TBC on the outside. I think the Pats will be OK. I would be more worried about the pass rush and coverage skills. I think Vrabel is a fine subsitute for Seau, its the drop-off from Vrabel to TBC that should be a concern.

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BelichickFan

I agree that there is a concern but I am not as concerned as you. Remember three guys had to move :

Vrabel to inside
Colvin from WOLB to SOLB
TBC in to WOLB

Even if this is a lesser alignment, having to make the switch on the fly would cause some problems which will get fixed through time. I'm not saying everything will be fine but a subset of the problem will be fixed just through being able to have these guys together all week and the weeks to follow.

5 Rings for Brady!!

Unlike several critical fans, I will greatly miss seeing Seau celebrate after a tackle. Because he made the tackle in the first place.

I will miss his fire. I will miss him leading the team with tackle after tackle.

PromisedLand

That's exactly what they did yesterday which yielded 5.0 ypc. I think Junior was the best inside run-stuffer since TJ retired. Actually better - he was playing really well. It's really the drop-off from Seau to TBC which is occuring, plus Mr. Vrabel is more effective as an OLB than an ILB, so we really took a hit at two positions. TBC was also getting a few snaps before the injury subbing in for Colvin - now we'll have to go to the next guy on the depth chart, which no matter who is somebody very raw.

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D-cleater

I feel the pain. I said earlier in the season that Junior was the best strong side ILB we've had in the Belichik era, even at 37. And this is coming from an admitted Ted Johnson/Roman Phifer apologist. He was more than solid against the run, and big reason for our success this season, especially with Rodney being out.

We'll manage, and fortunately we have a few lollipops on the schedule to get good against, so any holier-than-thou members just waiting to contribute the self serving 'sky is falling' post please bite it, and admit to yourself that Seau was playing at a high loss and this does limit a lot of what we can do on defense with Vrabel having to play inside.

patsfan13

It will help when everyone is getting practice in their proper position rather than having to adapt midway through the game. The issue will be how TBC performs on running plays.

If this is the end of Seau's career, it will be a shame to end it that way. Hope he can come back for another year if he wants.

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Willie55

Vrabel had baptism by fire. After game planning all week for outside LB, during the game he was thrown into MLB. Totally different game with bodies flying around you everywhere, different attack points. Give him a week of practice as to what he's suppose to do in the middle it will all be fine.

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Willie55

Last year with Vrabel in the middle the Pats rush D gave up 3.6 yards a carry.

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PromisedLand

Last year with Vrabel in the middle and McGinest on the outside the Pats rush D gave up 3.6 yards a carry, which is still significantly worse than the 3.3 ypc they were allowing before yesterday's game.

McGinest was thought of as a pure pass rusher but he also was stout against the run: remember the game saving play stuffing Edgerrin James at the goal line in 2003?

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