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Old 01-05-2010, 11:01 AM   #11
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His most amazing season was 2006, IMHO, when the Pats let both Branch and Givens leave as Free Agents.
*cough* Branch *cough* first-rounder from Seattle *cough* free agent my ***** *cough*
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Old 01-05-2010, 11:12 AM   #12
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Default Re: Football Outsiders on the 2009 Patriots opponents

Just one further thought:

This is what gives me hope to a Patriots SB run, Welker injury aside. The Patriots have performed better against their opponents than most, at least on the offensive side of the ball. Peyton and Brees did not play well against the AFCE, the pass defenses in our division are legitimately brutal, particularly the Jets & Bills. We play in a division of tough defenses, brutal weather, tough opposing stadiums and we drew some tough non-division games this season. The playoffs will be more of the same, but for other teams, that may not be the case, the playoffs may be a huge leap in quality of opponent for them.
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Old 01-05-2010, 11:16 AM   #13
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Just one further thought:

This is what gives me hope to a Patriots SB run, Welker injury aside. The Patriots have performed better against their opponents than most, at least on the offensive side of the ball. Peyton and Brees did not play well against the AFCE, the pass defenses in our division are legitimately brutal, particularly the Jets & Bills. We play in a division of tough defenses, brutal weather, tough opposing stadiums and we drew some tough non-division games this season. The playoffs will be more of the same, but for other teams, that may not be the case, the playoffs may be a huge leap in quality of opponent for them.
If I'm not mistaken, The Ravens had the hardest schedule out of any playoff team, granted The Ravens lost a bunch of games to the other playoff teams.
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Old 01-05-2010, 11:24 AM   #14
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If I'm not mistaken, The Ravens had the hardest schedule out of any playoff team, granted The Ravens lost a bunch of games to the other playoff teams.
They were 1-6 against playoff teams...Their one victory was against SD, though.
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Old 01-05-2010, 11:34 AM   #15
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They were 1-6 against playoff teams...Their one victory was against SD, though.
I know, thats why I stated the Ravens lost most of the games played against playoff teams.
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Old 01-05-2010, 11:46 AM   #16
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I know, thats why I stated the Ravens lost most of the games played against playoff teams.
I'm not so sure of the Ravens' ability to beat San Diego in a re-match (though I will admit that I think people overrate San Diego).

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Old 01-05-2010, 11:50 AM   #17
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I don't like this analysis. If it's true, it means that the Ravens could be the best team in football. I really don't want that to be the case.
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Old 01-05-2010, 12:01 PM   #18
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*cough* Branch *cough* first-rounder from Seattle *cough* free agent my ***** *cough*
thanks for the correction. You're right, how can we forget the Branch saga? Branch was eventually traded (we got Brandon Meriweather in the 2007 draft as a result) and Givens left as an FA for Tennessee. The underlying point still stands. Brady was left without his top two receivers in 2006. I'll leave a discussion of the relative value of Deion Branch and Brandon Meriweather to the Patriots to another thread.

Especially sad footnote given this week's events: Givens played just five games for the Titans in 2006 and suffered a career-ending ACL tear in week 10, missed all of 2007 and was released in 2008. He never played in the NFL again.
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Old 01-05-2010, 12:09 PM   #19
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Default Re: Football Outsiders on the 2009 Patriots opponents

The sobering side of the Outsiders' analysis is that this upcoming Sunday's game against the Ravens, who end the season ranked #1 in total DVOA, is the toughest match-up the Patriots could have drawn.

The Ravens end the year with the 3rd ranked defense, and it only drops to 5th overall when you weight to count the recent games stronger.

Furthermore, over the 2nd half of the season, the Ravens have had the 2nd most effective run offense, although their passing attack did drop down to 16th.

Considering this tough wild-card week match-up, it's little surprise that the Pats given only a 21.5% chance of making it to AFCCG, to the Colts' and Chargers' 64.6% and 65.8%, respectively.
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Old 01-05-2010, 12:18 PM   #20
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thanks for the correction. You're right, Branch was traded (we got Brandon Meriweather in the 2007 draft as a result) and Givens left as an FA for Tennessee. The underlying point still stands. Brady was left without his top two receivers in 2006. I'll leave a discussion of the relative value of Deion Branch and Brandon Meriweather to another thread.
I've often argued that while 2007 was fun to watch, 2006 was truly Brady's most impressive season.

For Brady to have led the Pats to the 5th most efficient passing attack in the league that year (by DVOA, natch) with the motley crew of JAGs he was throwing to -- that just shouldn't be possible.

I think that season could go down as the most overlooked all-time-great season in sports history.
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