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Old 12-03-2009, 12:52 PM   #31
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Default Re: NFLN replay: Pats vs. NO constructive analysis

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Out of frustration, I deleted the game from my PVR. I wish I hadn't.

Did our corners play the WR's tough at the line or did they play scared?

Me too, the seconds hadn't even gone to 00:00 and it was deleted.
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Old 12-03-2009, 12:54 PM   #32
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Default Re: NFLN replay: Pats vs. NO constructive analysis

Patspsycho.

Thanks, great post with very good Xs and Os.

I too thought MacKenzie played lights out, completely taking away any YAC from Welker. Mighty Mite was hit the moment he caught the ball numerous times, killing drives.
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Old 12-03-2009, 01:08 PM   #33
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Default Re: NFLN replay: Pats vs. NO constructive analysis

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Patspsycho.

Thanks, great post with very good Xs and Os.

I too thought MacKenzie played lights out, completely taking away any YAC from Welker. Mighty Mite was hit the moment he caught the ball numerous times, killing drives.
This is also a good point. The Saints LBs kept Welker in front of them and closed on him rapidly when he dragged across the middle. He made the catch but the YAC was zero. It seemed that this was part of the Saints' plan: to present space to Welker with the idea of closing down on him as soon as he made his cut. I commented to my son during the game that Welker could have faked to the inside and then spun to the outside middle. It seemed like he could have gotten big gains up the seam between the LB coverage and the corners. This would not only have gained some yardage but might have forced the Saints to adjust their linebacker drops and possibly opened things up in the middle.
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Old 12-03-2009, 01:12 PM   #34
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Default Re: NFLN replay: Pats vs. NO constructive analysis

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This is also a good point. The Saints LBs kept Welker in front of them and closed on him rapidly when he dragged across the middle. He made the catch but the YAC was zero. It seemed that this was part of the Saints' plan: to present space to Welker with the idea of closing down on him as soon as he made his cut. I commented to my son during the game that Welker could have faked to the inside and then spun to the outside middle. It seemed like he could have gotten big gains up the seam between the LB coverage and the corners. This would not only have gained some yardage but might have forced the Saints to adjust their linebacker drops and possibly opened things up in the middle.

Like how the Pats stopped the 01 Rams receivers. Know where they're going, tackle them right after.
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Old 12-03-2009, 01:29 PM   #35
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Default Re: NFLN replay: Pats vs. NO constructive analysis

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I think the team opted to shotgun when Neal went out. The shotgun lets Brady see the rush and O.C. knew the O.L. was in trouble. Simply put, we went shotgun out of necessity.
The shotgun also lets other teams know we are passing (especially when there is no back in the backfield) and lets them tee off with their pass rush. Brady may be able to see the rush coming at him, but he may not have time to find the open receiver, which seemed to be the case in the 4th quarter against Indy and in the Saints game.
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Old 12-03-2009, 01:32 PM   #36
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The shotgun also lets other teams know we are passing (especially when there is no back in the backfield) and lets them tee off with their pass rush. Brady may be able to see the rush coming at him, but he may not have time to find the open receiver, which seemed to be the case in the 4th quarter against Indy and in the Saints game.
As a D-lineman when you have to respect the run you can only (or should only) pass rush into certain gaps because you still have gap responsibility. The blocker also knows you should only be rushing into certain areas, it makes his life easier too to pass block.

When there is no threat of run, all bets are off. The pass rusher can move and juke into any space he wants. It is MUCH tougher for a blocker.

4 pass-only rushers can probably defeat 5 blockers at a rate significantly higher than 4 D-linemen who have to pass rush near their gap responsibility. Probably the same success rate as blitzing against a QB under center...

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Old 12-03-2009, 01:39 PM   #37
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Default Re: NFLN replay: Pats vs. NO constructive analysis

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When there is no threat of run, all bets are off. The pass rusher can move and juke into any space he wants. It is MUCH tougher for a blocker.
Okay, so how come Dante (one of the best O-Line coaches in the league so I'm told) isn't bringing this up in team meetings or to BB personally...or short of that, getting his guys to be able to counter a consistent pass rush?
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Old 12-03-2009, 01:47 PM   #38
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Default Re: NFLN replay: Pats vs. NO constructive analysis

This confirms my initial assessment that the NO D had a new type of coverage to contain Welker/Moss:

Welker: Saints gave a new twist - Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston
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Old 12-03-2009, 01:49 PM   #39
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Default Re: NFLN replay: Pats vs. NO constructive analysis

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Fabulous analysis. A few other thoughts:

1. Shotgun, play calling, and pass/run distribution

-On our 1st drive of the game, we went 80 yards in 14 plays for a touchdown, chewing up 7:40. Only 3 of those 14 plays were from the shotgun (2 incomplete passes and a 19 yard completion to Kevin Faulk). We ran the ball 9 times for 47 yards, and 3/5 passes for 33 yards.
- On the 2nd drive we started in the shotgun and threw an INT on the first play.
- On the 3rd drive we went only 21 yards in 5 plays, and punted. 3 were out of the shotgun, with 2 incomplete.
- On our 4th drive we went 56 yards in 11 plays, using up 5:39, culminating in a 36 yard FG. 5 of the 10 plays prior to the FG were Maroney runs, for 20 yards. 4 of 5 passing plays were out of the shotgun, and 4/5 resulted in 2 yards or less.
- On our 5th drive we went 48 yards in 10 plays in 1:37, resulting in a missed Gostkowski 50 yard FG. All 10 plays were passes out of the shotgun, with Brady 5/10, the longest completion being 11 yards. From the NO 32 we took 3 shots at the end zone instead of moving the chains or making the FG attempt easier.
- On our 6th drive (to open the 2nd half) we went 81 yards on 9 plays for a touchdown, using up 4:16. 7 of the 10 plays were passes, 4 from the shotgun. 47 yards came on a Brady to Moss completion from the shotgun.
- On our 7th drive we drove 61 yards in 10 plays to the NO 10, turning the ball over on downs. There were 2 rushes and 8 pass attempts (7 out of the shotgun). The drive failed on 3 consecutive incomplete attempts out of the shotgun.
- On our 8th drive we went 3 and out, with 3 pass attempts out of the shotgun gaining 5 yards.
- On our 9th drive we ran 2 plays, both out of the shotgun, ending in a Darren Sharper interception. At that point Brady was pulled.

My conclusions: (1) We abandoned the run and play action, and became increasingly shotgun oriented; (2) every drive which was dominated by the shotgun formation resulted in 0 points, whereas drives which had balance resulted in points.

2. Momentum Killers

We didn't lose the game on any one play/series, as we were soundly beaten on both sides of the ball. But 2 series stand out:

- Having taken a 7-3 lead we stopped New Orleans. Wes Welker appeared to be gone on a punt return, but Courtney Roby caught him from behind, showing terrific speed. Brady threw an INT on the next play.
- Down 24-10 with 1:50 left and needing to get some momentum back before halftime, we drove 48 yards to the NO 32. Brady then took 3 unsuccessful shots at the end zone out of the shotgun, and Ghost missed a 50 yard fieldgoal. Huge momentum killer. Get even 3 points on the board and it becomes a 24-20 game when we open the 3rd quarter to score, and we have momentum behind us. Even the 68 yard pass to Colston leading to a TD would only have made it 31-20.

Game Balls:

Laurence Maroney: ran hard and aggressively, and was our best offensive player on the field.

Nerf Balls:

Stefan Ghostkowski: he's missed too many critical FGs this year. 50 yards is not a chip shot, but it's doable.

The Shotgun: it killed us. Whoever went almost exclusively to the shotgun (Brady or the OC) took our offense out of the game. Brady was 19/34 from the shotgun for 227 yards and 2 interceptions.
It isn't the shotgun. It was abandoning the run that was the problem. The Pats have been primarily in the shotgun before and not have this problem. The fact of the matter is the Saints didn't care about the Pats running the ball and just played pass for most of the game after the first quarter.

Of course the defensive woes also played into it. The Pats were grinding it down the field initially, but the Saints didn't need more than a minute or two to respond with a TD meaning the Pats couldn't even afford to grind out the ball anymore. Brees was throwing a TD pass about every four to five pass attempt.

Personally, I think this was an entire team failure. You are focusing too much in on the offense when the defense wasn't even a speed bump on the defense scoring. I think on both sides of the ball the players didn't execute and the coordinators failed to adjust.
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Old 12-03-2009, 01:51 PM   #40
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Default Re: NFLN replay: Pats vs. NO constructive analysis

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This confirms my initial assessment that the NO D had a new type of coverage to contain Welker/Moss:

Welker: Saints gave a new twist - Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston
It's like when Belichick figured out the 01 Rams went through Faulk. Once the Saints took Welker out of the game, we couldn't manufacture a win.
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