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"It is likely that we see Wheatley displace either Springs or Bodden."
Likely is not the word I'd use. So far, Wheatley has not shown that he can play on this level. I'm not saying he can't but there is nothing likely about him displacing a vet starter, excepting via attrition.
Wheatley, Tate and Brace are the young players with the bigest unknowns in their NFL capabilities. The other kids have shown they're NFL worthy.
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"Thomas' base salary jumps by almost $3M in 2010, giving him a cap hit of nearly $10M. Still, cutting him lose (in an uncapped year) would accelerate ~$6M in bonus money, more than offsetting the $4.9M salary that would be cleared."
The $4.9M is money that's going to be paid, but the $6M in bonus money was paid back in 2007.
I'm not sure if we're on the same page here. I thought you were referring to Light. In his case, it's all base salary.
As far as Thomas goes, I don't think we're in disagreement there. The fact remains the same: Thomas' signing bonus and option bonus allocations for 2011 would accelerate into 2010 if he was cut.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ctpatsfan77
OTOH, every team already has a kicker, and most good teams have good kickers. So the question isn't "Is Gostkowski worth [insert draft picks + contract amount here]?" It's "Is the difference between Gostkowski and the kicker we already have worth [insert draft picks + contract amount here]?" And don't forget that those teams that might be willing to trade for such a kicker might also be stuck in the "Final Eight Plan" boat, too, and have to decide if it's worth trading those picks away.
"It is likely that we see Wheatley displace either Springs or Bodden."
Likely is not the word I'd use. So far, Wheatley has not shown that he can play on this level. I'm not saying he can't but there is nothing likely about him displacing a vet starter, excepting via attrition.
Wheatley, Tate and Brace are the young players with the bigest unknowns in their NFL capabilities. The other kids have shown they're NFL worthy.
See, I wouldn't consider Springs to be a vet starter. In fact, he's the fourth cornerback at this point. Bodden is, and so by saying that I meant that it's unlikely that we see *both* Springs and Bodden return to the Top 4 at CB, and instead we see Wheatley worked into that mix.
Defense
Players under contract for 2010:
OLB - Thomas, Woods (RFA), Banta-Cain, Crable, Ninkovich (RFA) This would seem to be the unit where the Pats will devote the most draft attention.
I seriously hope so. Crable is as good as done and I'd be shocked to see anything out of McKenzie next season. The Pats need LB's extremely bad.
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Woods will be in his fifth season and at this point I think it's clear he's not the solution as a 3-4 starter (or 4-3 starter) in this system; he will remain a viable backup option.
It's about time somebody is starting to admit that Woods isn't the solution. In fact, other people that have argued with me in the past about Woods (and you know who you are) need to step up and admit they were wrong. As usual, Woods has shown absolutely nothing. He's okay against the run, terrible against the pass and rarely rushes the passer.
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ILB McKenzie
Again, I don't expect much out of him. It takes at least a year, if ever, to regain his normal form. The Pats need to address this position.
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CB - Wilhite, Butler, Springs, Wheatley It is likely that we see Wheatley displace either Springs or Bodden.
Really? Wheatley should thank his lucky stars if he makes the team next season. All that guy has done is get injured and get beat when he's on the field.
Quote:
S - Meriweather, McGowan, Sanders, Chung, Lockett, Slater
McGowan was a great addition and will help make the transition for Chung a lot easier. Safeties look pretty good for next season.
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Offense
RB - Maroney, Taylor, Morris, Green-Ellis
Many teams in the NFL are proving that unless Adrian Peterson is available, you don't need to invest a high draft pick in a RB.
Quote:
WR - Moss, Welker, Tate, Edelman, Aiken, (Nunn)
Pats need WR's. Wouldn't surprise me if they took one in the early rounds of next year's draft.
I seriously hope so. Crable is as good as done and I'd be shocked to see anything out of McKenzie next season. The Pats need LB's extremely bad.
So Pryor, Vollmer, Butler, Chung, Tate, and Ingram can all contribute right away as rookies yet you don't expect to see anything out of McKenzie in his first season? Huh?
Quote:
Originally Posted by HEY BRO! WHAT UP?
It's about time somebody is starting to admit that Woods isn't the solution. In fact, other people that have argued with me in the past about Woods (and you know who you are) need to step up and admit they were wrong. As usual, Woods has shown absolutely nothing. He's okay against the run, terrible against the pass and rarely rushes the passer.
Agreed, but he's still cheap depth.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HEY BRO! WHAT UP?
Again, I don't expect much out of him. It takes at least a year, if ever, to regain his normal form. The Pats need to address this position.
McKenzie injured himself in May 2009. I'd expect him to be fine by July 2010. He would have to be a complete bust for the Pats to have to seriously address this position; Mayo, Guyton, and McKenzie are all young, solid options going forward. Where would your pick/signing play?
Quote:
Originally Posted by HEY BRO! WHAT UP?
Really? Wheatley should thank his lucky stars if he makes the team next season. All that guy has done is get injured and get beat when he's on the field.
Wheatley has been injured once. The only reason he's been inactive so much this season has been the guys playing in front of him. Sure, he didn't look all that great in the preseason, but he had some decent games in 2008.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HEY BRO! WHAT UP?
McGowan was a great addition and will help make the transition for Chung a lot easier. Safeties look pretty good for next season.
They will likely play together for the foreseeable future; I don't think one will replace the other.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HEY BRO! WHAT UP?
Many teams in the NFL are proving that unless Adrian Peterson is available, you don't need to invest a high draft pick in a RB.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HEY BRO! WHAT UP?
Pats need WR's. Wouldn't surprise me if they took one in the early rounds of next year's draft.
Only for the post-Moss/Welker era. Otherwise, Tate and Edelman aren't going anywhere, and Aiken remains a solid #5/ST option. Where would your "high pick" play?
Quote:
Originally Posted by HEY BRO! WHAT UP?
The Pats need a RG and should consider replacing Koppen. Their run blocking needs to improve.
I'm not sure if we're on the same page here. I thought you were referring to Light. In his case, it's all base salary.
As far as Thomas goes, I don't think we're in disagreement there. The fact remains the same: Thomas' signing bonus and option bonus allocations for 2011 would accelerate into 2010 if he was cut.
I'm not going to argue semantics on this, but the point I've been trying to make is that if 2010 is uncapped, as you assume, there is no disincentive to cutting Thomas next year, if they choose to do so. [I'm not advocating any particular action here.]
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So Pryor, Vollmer, Butler, Chung, Tate, and Ingram can all contribute right away as rookies yet you don't expect to see anything out of McKenzie in his first season? Huh?
It's extremely difficult to recover from an ACL injury. In fact, Shawne Merriman is a prime example. He's really struggled this season. Who knows whether Merriman will regain his prior form?
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Agreed, but he's still cheap depth.
I agree
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McKenzie injured himself in May 2009. I'd expect him to be fine by July 2010. He would have to be a complete bust for the Pats to have to seriously address this position; Mayo, Guyton, and McKenzie are all young, solid options going forward. Where would your pick/signing play?
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Only for the post-Moss/Welker era. Otherwise, Tate and Edelman aren't going anywhere, and Aiken remains a solid #5/ST option. Where would your "high pick" play?
I can't give you an answer at this time because I don't know which players are entering the draft and where the Pats are going to pick. However, as of right now, I believe the Pats area of priority are: LB (or pass rusher), WR, DE (Although Pryor could take that role in a 3-4), CB, G/C, T, RB, QB, P
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Wheatley has been injured once. The only reason he's been inactive so much this season has been the guys playing in front of him. Sure, he didn't look all that great in the preseason, but he had some decent games in 2008.
The time that he has played this season, he's looked really bad. Wouldn't surprise me if BB cuts Crable and Wheatley like he did Chad Jackson and O'Connel. The Pats don't have time to wait around for stuff like this.
Quote:
Koppen is signed through 2011.
I never said cut him. However, it doesn't hurt to draft someone.
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ASSUMPTIONS
1) Uncapped year
2) All RFA's are signed and kept.
3) All UFA's are lost except Faulk.
I agree that we are in fine shape. I see weaknesses at TE, on the DL and at OLB.
DL
I do see a weakness if we lose Wilfork. I don't see how anyone can be comfortable with anyone else at NT at this point. We will see in the next month whether Green's production can easily be replaced.
OLB
This is a weakness, but what's new. I suspect that Thomas is gone in an uncapped year.
ILB
All set
CB
The top three are all set. Wheatley or a someone new is the #4,
S
All set, except Slater has never played safety for us is a game.
QB
all set
RB
I don't understand all the concern. We should add a youngster, but all our five running backs should be back. Faulk is worth way more than vet minimum to the patriots.
TE
an obvious need
WR
all set
OT
all set, even without Light
G/C
If Neal isn't re-signed, we have four to compete for the starting position (not counting Kaczur and Vollmer). We have six players competing for five spots. If Neal isn'r re-signed, I expect to draft another guard/center.
Special Teams
We need a punter a gain; no big deal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pats1
Defense
DL - (I'm going to group these all together because almost every member along this line has some level of versatility) - Warren, Wright, Pryor, Brace, (Richard), (Adams) ... Even without Wilfork and Green, who are free agents, this line still lacks any obvious holes.
OLB - Thomas, Woods (RFA), Banta-Cain, Crable, Ninkovich (RFA)
ILB - Mayo, Guyton, McKenzie, Alexander
CB - Wilhite, Butler, Springs, Wheatley
S - Meriweather, McGowan, Sanders, Chung, Lockett, Slater.
Offense
QB - Brady, Hoyer, (Stanback).
RB - Maroney, Taylor, Morris, Green-Ellis - There is a level of uncertainty with this position.
TE - Baker
WR - Moss, Welker, Tate, Edelman, Aiken, (Nunn).
OT - Light (option), Kaczur, Vollmer, LeVoir, Bussey.
OG/C - Koppen, Mankins (RFA), Ohrnberger, Wendell, Connolly (RFA), Simmons .
I also think that Wheatley will get the roster spot of the veteran that ends up leaving, probably Bodden. He still will be the #4 or #5 corner going into camp, depending on who else we pick up or draft.
With regard to question marks, I would list Wheatley, Crable and Brace. They have shown very, very little so far.
While I am not sure what Edelman and Tate will produce, I think that we have some information on both of them. At least one has a role as a receiver and/or returner. Both have already been judged worthy of being on the active roster and of filling those roles at least on an occasional basis.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PatsWickedPissah
"It is likely that we see Wheatley displace either Springs or Bodden."
Likely is not the word I'd use. So far, Wheatley has not shown that he can play on this level. I'm not saying he can't but there is nothing likely about him displacing a vet starter, excepting via attrition.
Wheatley, Tate and Brace are the young players with the bigest unknowns in their NFL capabilities. The other kids have shown they're NFL worthy.
ASSUMPTIONS
1) Uncapped year
2) All RFA's are signed and kept.
3) All UFA's are lost except Faulk.
I agree that we are in fine shape. I see weaknesses at TE, on the DL and at OLB.
DL
I do see a weakness if we lose Wilfork. I don't see how anyone can be comfortable with anyone else at NT at this point. We will see in the next month whether Green's production can easily be replaced.
OLB
This is a weakness, but what's new. I suspect that Thomas is gone in an uncapped year.
ILB
All set
CB
The top three are all set. Wheatley or a someone new is the #4,
S
All set, except Slater has never played safety for us is a game.
QB
all set
RB
I don't understand all the concern. We should add a youngster, but all our five running backs should be back. Faulk is worth way more than vet minimum to the patriots.
TE
an obvious need
WR
all set
OT
all set, even without Light
G/C
If Neal isn't re-signed, we have four to compete for the starting position (not counting Kaczur and Vollmer). We have six players competing for five spots. If Neal isn'r re-signed, I expect to draft another guard/center.
Special Teams
We need a punter a gain; no big deal.
I had to list Slater somewhere. IIRC, Reiss' stats had Slater playing a handful of snaps at safety and a handful at receiver last season.
Again, I didn't mean Faulk would be signed to a vet minimum contract. Just that he would be re-signed to something reasonable for a player his age.
The NT issue an interesting one. Pryor and Brace both have the size to play the position, but perhaps not the build. I wouldn't be comfortable relying on them in a Wilfork-less situation, but down the road I could see one or the other replacing him.