Pats Looking Good For Playoffs - Page 3 - New England Patriots Forums

PATSYLICIOUS · 10-12-2009, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spiral

Ahhh. 2007 seems like a long time ago. For Red Sox fans, too.

And that may be a good thing. In '07 we come out killing everybody and towards the end the Chargers and Giants shut down our pass game.

I think this season so far resembles the early part of 2003 alot. Got some ugly wins, ugly losses, lots of new pieces added and a new team trying to find itself on both sides of the ball. At this point we really didn't know what we had. Hopefully it ends like 2003 too.

Garbanza · 10-12-2009, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by captadamnj

Week 5 of Sunday NFL football in the books (still got tonite's game). Trying to get something positive to look forward to, so thought I'd break down the current AFC standings (teams listed in current order of standings) to see where we stand. A "brutal" schedule of having to play the South divisions in each conference is now shaping up to be more of a scheduling boon than any of us could have hoped for. Let's hope the Pats use it to their advantage. (I like the defense, and despite loosing 2nd half leads, the D has had little help from the O in the 2nd half of the two losses. The O improves through the year as Brady and the receivers improve whatever it is that isn't working like we've seen in the past.)

Here's where things stand right now, half the conference essentially in the playoff picture (more complete breakdowns below) based on current record and schedule the rest of the way.

DEN (5-0, leads IND on strength of victory)
IND (5-0)
CIN (4-1)
NYJ (3-1)
PIT (3-2)
BAL (3-2)
NWE (3-2)
SD (2-2)

My feeling is that of the above 8, two of the teams from the AFC North will wind up with lesser records than the Pats (as well as all teams not currently listed). I'm looking for a division championship, but if not, then I like our odds in a 3+ team wild card race based on the fact that the North is going to beat each other up affecting their overall conference record.

Pass the kool-aid, here's to the playoffs and beyond!

East -
Jets (3-1) - Chance at 12-4. Penciling in losses on the road to Pats and Colts, plus a loss in one of the Miami games or, based on current records, tough home games against Falcons (although a cold weather game for a dome team from the south) and the Bengals.
Pats (3-2) - At least as good a chance or better than the Jets to be 12-4. Toughest games will be home for the Jets (but we just pencil in that as a W, right?!), at the Colts and at the Saints. Other games all should be favored in.
Dolphins (2-2) - Hard time finding 10 wins on their schedule with 2 games still against both the Jets and Pats along with games against the Saints and Steelers.
Bills (1-4) - TO who?

Jets and Pats in playoffs. At 12-4 (or better), I like us as Division champs either straight up or in a tie-breaker with the Jets on division record (5-1 vs 4-2 as Jets lose to Pats and one to Miami).

North -
Bengals (4-1) - On tap for 10-11 wins, but the Bengals? THE BENGALS?!? 3 quality wins by a total of 9 points. I don't see their luck holding up all season with games against Baltimore, @ Pitt, @ Minn, @ SD, @ NYJ. At least 3 losses there, plus at least another loss or two somewhere because they are still the Bungles. I think.
Ravens (3-2) - 8-8 isn't out of the realm of possibility. @ Minn, Denver, @ Cin, Indy, Pitt, @ GB, @ Pitt could all come up as an "L" leaving them sub-500.
Steelers (3-2) - Still likely the class of the division with 11+ wins possible if they keep the running game going, Ben upright and find a way to win the close road games they've lost so far this season. Minn, @ Den, Cinn, GB and a pair against the Ravens look like toughest games, but 4 of those games are at home.
Browns (1-4) - Punter was their best player on the field yesterday. QB's stats made Jamarcus Russell stats look good. Who will be gone first, their coach or their heralded first round QB?

I like the Steelers for the division. Cinn and Bal could challenge, or in running for Wild Card. If we have to compete for Wild Card, we already have the head-to-head tie breaker of Bal and these teams will all beat up each other for conference record tie-break.

South -
Colts (5-0) - Hate to admit it, but the only thing holding this team back from 13 wins right now is that they may have the division wrapped up by T-giving. Home games against the Pats, Broncos and Jets. We know they'll lose at least one of those (

). @ Texans and @ Jags in division games.
Jaguars (2-3) - Hard time finding 10 wins, and maybe another battle for .500. @ Jets, @ 49ers, Colts, @ Pats. They might look like world beaters, however, after next week's game at home against the Rams.
Texans (2-3) - See also - Jags, only harder schedule. @ Cinn, @ SF, Pats, a pair against the Colts.
Titans (0-5) - NFL = Not For Long (until we see VY?)

Colts as division winners.

West -
Broncos (5-0) - Going with 11-5, but neither 12 wins nor 10 (or less) would surprise me. @ Bal, Pitt, NYG, @ PHI, @ IND, plus a pair with SD.
Chargers (2-2) - Going with 11-5 also. @ NYG, PHI, Cinn, a pair with DEN = 3 losses.
Raiders (1-4) - You just have to feel for Seymour. Turns out, however, that his coach may be a harder hitter than he is.
Chiefs (0-5) - At least Pioli, Cassel and Vrabel have each other to comfort.

Broncos and Chargers both worth mentioning for playoffs right now, with Den leading the division champ race right now. If we have to go the Wild Card route in a 3 (or more) horse race, let's hope Den definitely wins the West since we're already behind the 8-ball on head-head and conference record.

Ah, homerism at its best!!

With the way the team has looked thus far, I will eat my shorts if the Pats managed a victory in Indy or New Orleans. The other games will be struggles - and I am talking about home games. I have no idea how we will fare on the road...but it 'aint looking good so far.

klinefan · 10-12-2009, 03:49 PM

Playoffs?!?

You want to talk PLAYOFFS??!??

If they don't improve they'd just get bounced out in the first round anyway.

There's still a shot they can but look at Indy, that team is a juggernaut.

supafly · 10-12-2009, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garbanza

Ah, homerism at its best!!

With the way the team has looked thus far, I will eat my shorts if the Pats managed a victory in Indy or New Orleans. The other games will be struggles - and I am talking about home games. I have no idea how we will fare on the road...but it 'aint looking good so far.

When responsing to the 'official prediction' thread, I predicted that we'd lose the following :

one at home
one in the division
one on the road
one we expected to win

with the obvious abilty to overlap of course, I hope the DEN game was the one we expected to win

I agree that it seems pretty likely that we lose on the road either to IND or NEW ORL, if not both

This team needs to make some changes if it wants to be considered one of the league's elite teams again

ClosingTime · 10-12-2009, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shrekk

I have to disagree with your assessment of pittsburgh, they are not the smash mouth defense of yesteryear. Dick Lebeau not being there has had an effect. Pittsburgh has 6 games left that are certainly losable, they have minnesota, denver, baltimore twice, cincinati, and green bay. and the season finale against miami is no guarantee. I would not be surprised to see pittsburgh miss the playoffs. its a 3 horse race in the north i think the team that comes in 3rd misses the playoffs and the 2nd place team gets the 6th seed.

Um... where did Dick Lebeau go?

bostonia3333 · 10-12-2009, 03:53 PM

I'm sure alot of haters are out there saying we should be 0-5. I actually believe them and feel fortunate that the Pats are 3-2. That ATL game was a very close game, much closer than the final score indicated. With the passive defense and poor playing calling and execution, I have no idea how this team is 3-2.

supafly · 10-12-2009, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ClosingTime

Um... where did Dick Lebeau go?

He's been wearing the 'invisibility cloak,' as the defense hasn't looked the same without Polamalu. The offense is looking quite good as of late, however.
Not sure how those guys get open so much, but it sure seems as though either Holmes, Ward, or the big TE are always wide open--sometimes it's ridiculous. Their running game has been much improved too, and I certainly expect them to make the playoffs. One, their stud safety is back, two, their schedule is crazy easy--of those games that were quoted, they'll most likely only lose 2-3 at best. That's just another guess of course, but I certainly don't feel that they'll miss the playoffs. If we're banking on that, we're in trouble.

Jimke · 10-12-2009, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garbanza

Ah, homerism at its best!!

With the way the team has looked thus far, I will eat my shorts if the Pats managed a victory in Indy or New Orleans. The other games will be struggles - and I am talking about home games. I have no idea how we will fare on the road...but it 'aint looking good so far.

You are correct when you say every game will be a struggle. The

Patriots had to get an assist from the kick returner to beat a weak

Buffalo team. In addition to the teams you mention above, the

Dolphins usually beat us one time. Houston has a quarterback good

enough to benefit from a weak pass rush and the Titans and Panthers were

13-3 last year and might turn it around for one game.

patsinthesnow · 10-12-2009, 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PATSYLICIOUS

And that may be a good thing. In '07 we come out killing everybody and towards the end the Chargers and Giants shut down our pass game.

I think this season so far resembles the early part of 2003 alot. Got some ugly wins, ugly losses, lots of new pieces added and a new team trying to find itself on both sides of the ball. At this point we really didn't know what we had. Hopefully it ends like 2003 too.

I think this season resembles the last 1/4 of 2007 and the playoffs. Remember how the offense cooled down ALOT and there was about 4 close games?

ClosingTime · 10-12-2009, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by supafly

He's been wearing the 'invisibility cloak,' as the defense hasn't looked the same without Polamalu. The offense is looking quite good as of late, however.
Not sure how those guys get open so much, but it sure seems as though either Holmes, Ward, or the big TE are always wide open--sometimes it's ridiculous. Their running game has been much improved too, and I certainly expect them to make the playoffs. One, their stud safety is back, two, their schedule is crazy easy--of those games that were quoted, they'll most likely only lose 2-3 at best. That's just another guess of course, but I certainly don't feel that they'll miss the playoffs. If we're banking on that, we're in trouble.

The defense surely isn't the same without Polamalu, though they have been pretty solid for the first 3 quarters of games and then something happens when they have a lead. LB Timmons high ankle sprain has taken away a lot of team speed as well.

It's silly to compare schedules but I think NE has a very easy schedule. The only tough games are the Jets, Indy and Saints. The rest of those teams are horrendous. Jets still have Cincy (yes they are for real with a solid D this year), Indy and Atlanta. Steelers still have games against Denver, Cincy, Minn, GB and two versus the Ravens.