KDPPatsfan85

Charley Casserly and Brian Billick, both of whom are contributing to draft coverage for NFL Network, are holding a conference call today.

Here is their opinion when asked about the Patriots’ needs and what they might do in the draft:

“The areas to me that they can get better are outside linebacker, inside linebacker, corner and offensive tackle," Casserly said.

“The corner from Connecticut, [Darius] Butler, is probably in that range. Then at outside linebacker, you have guys like Clay Matthews, who a lot of people like in the last part of that first round. Larry English, but I don’t know if he fits their mold as far as the size factor goes. Those are some names, value-wise, who would fit into that part of the first round.”

Billick looked through a wider lens when assessing the Patriots’ possible approach.

“What intrigues me the most about New England this year, and it tends to be something we see over and over again, you’re looking at all these picks in the first three rounds that they have, and their history to not hesitate, and some of these they will toss off to bank for next year as well, because they realize there are only so many guys they are going to take that can make their football team,” Billick said.

“To sit there with the six picks that they have in the first three rounds, they have a lot of latitude to however their board lays out. They can go up and get a guy if they covet a guy, which hasn’t necessarily been their m.o. – and I’m not sure this is a draft that you would isolate that. I think they’re in great shape to fit the needs that Charley outlined.”

One other aspect of the call that stood out was Casserly listing the percentages of landing a starting player in the draft.

Casserly cited on a 10-year study – which evaluated drafts after four years had passed – and listed the following numbers of success:

# First round – 75 percent
# Second round – 50 percent
# Third round – 30 percent
# Fourth round – 25 percent
# Fifth round – 20 percent
# Sixth round – 9 percent
# Seventh round – 9 percent

Casserly, Billick talk Patriots - Reiss' Pieces - Boston.com

alvinnf

I guess it's a good problem to have when you realistically only have room for a few draft picks, because of team depth. You can really target one or two guys, use a couple picks for competion or depth. Then push a couple out for next year. Sounds like a winning formula.

PatsBoy12

Yeah, it's definitely been our winning formula for many of the BB draft years.

KY Pats Fan

Kind of what I've been saying for a month or so. Having all of these picks in the first 3 rounds are great, but how many slots do they have in the 53 man roster. Better to bundle picks and move up or trade for picks next year, that "waste" them. Which I believe is BB's mantra. I expect them to bundle up the 23 and one of the 2nds to move up. I would like them to grab Tyson Jackson. Then bundle up the other 2nds and maybe a 3rd to move up and grab Barwin.

arrellbee

Don't want to be a killjoy, but from looking at a number of drafts over the years, my estimate was only about 1/3 of 1st rounders became solid starters, much less stars, after half a dozen years.

arrellbee

Interesting. Reiss reports a comment from Billick that of 43 QBs selected in first round since 1990, it's about 12-14 that have had 'consistent' success. So for QBs, there is the 1/3 number.

Feep50

I think 23,34,47,58 will end up being 3 selections and a 1st next year....

This is the year of the "Killah B's" Beatty, Butler and Brown!

Wretch

Ok I'll bite. Patriots first round picks dating back to 1999:

Mayo: DROY
Merriweather: Solid Starter
Maroney: Solid Starter when healthy
Mankins: All Pro
Wolfork: All Pro
Watson: Solid Starter
Graham: Solid Starter
Warren: Solid Starter
Seymour: All Pro
Woody (Grier Pick): Solid Starter
Katzenmoyer(Grier Pick)isappointing career due to injuries

looks a little better than 1 in 3 or were talking league wide

Number 2

That is really impressive (for the team) seeing them all in order like that!

fair catch fryar

Maroney and Watson are starters, but the term solid is debatable IMO. We've seen flashes, but neither has shown they can be consistent, if and when they are healthy.