There is no way Hanson makes this team! - New England Patriots Forums

***Lloyd_Christmas*** · 03-12-2009, 03:41 PM

Ok, I'm throwing down the annual gauntlet in honor of the original "There is no way David Patten makes this team" thread... for those who remember.

Unfortunately, I'm targeting the punter and who cares about punters?

Still, here are my arguments for dumping Hanson:

With our offense, we don't punt very often. But when we do, it is usually from around midfield or so... where you are trying to pin the opponent inside their 20 yard line.

Hanson is not good at this (in fact, only 4 punters in the entire league were worse than him at this.

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Inside the numbers:

At first glance, you see that 40% of his punts resulted in the opponent left inside their 20 yard line and it appears impressive. Then you realize that 60% of his punts where these sort of punts and he screwed up 10 of them, resulting in TBs (or 33.3% failure rate).

Most punters aren't lucky enough to be in that position on 60% of their punts. If they were, then the statistics show that almost all of them would have better "inside the 20" numbers than Hanson.

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Due to our offensive success, I think we should bring in someone else to compete with Hanson other than Malone... maybe a low draft pick.

Preferably someone with better skill at pinning the opponent down inside their 20 yard line.

Raw distance is probably of less importance to us... an area where Hanson is only mediocre anyway.

***Lloyd_Christmas*** · 03-12-2009, 03:43 PM

Here is some more NE punting info:

Facts:

50 punts: 9 OutBnds, 7 Dwnd, 10 TchBcks, 13 FairCtch, 11 Rtrnd
Longest punt: 70 yds
Average punt: 44 yds (Tied for 15th)
Net Average: 36.8 yds (20th)
20 punts resulted in oppenent inside their 20 yd line (27th - see info below)
0 TDs
0 Blocked punts

Positives:

40% of all punts were a FC or Dwnd and an additional 10% (9 punts out of bounds) were probably coffin kicks.

40% of punts left the opponent inside their own 20 yd line.

No punts were blocked or returned for TDs.

Negatives:

20% of Hanson's punts were TBs (10 TBs on 50 punts). Unacceptable!

33.3% of his punts that were targeted for inside the 20 yd line resulted in TBs (10 out of 30).
-- That ranks 27th in the league. Only 4 teams had a worse %. Sea was tied with us.
-- The best: Colts 8.7%, Bengels: 10.7%, and Bears: 12.5%

14+ yds/punt average return is bad.

Net average punt of 36.8 yds ranks 20th in the league.
-- Note: 60% of Hanson's punts were targeted for inside the 20 yd line which will skew towards shorter punts.

Synovia · 03-12-2009, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lloyd_Christmas

-- That ranks 27th in the league. Only 4 teams had a worse %. Sea was tied with us. .

Great, but is there any evidence that touchback percentage on punts is a stat that correlates to future performance?

We already KNOW that field goal accuracy doesnt, and that kickoff distance is more important. Do we know that we're not looking at the same case with punts?

(also, I think I20 is a bad stat. A punt that goes out at the 15 is only marginally better than a touchback. I10 would be much more usefull, but its not tracked. )

***Lloyd_Christmas*** · 03-12-2009, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Synovia

Great, but is there any evidence that touchback percentage on punts is a stat that correlates to future performance?

(also, I think I20 is a bad stat. A punt that goes out at the 15 is only marginally better than a touchback. I10 would be much more usefull, but its not tracked. )

I don't have an answer for your first question. I haven't looked at historical data to see if punters are consitent in their performance concerning pinning down opponents vice kicking touch backs. My guess is that some punters are consistently good at it and others are consistently bad or just plain inconsistent in general.

I would agree that the I20 stat can be misleading. I'd like to see an I20 and an I10 stat together. Still won't paint the full picture, but it would be better than just having one of them.

Synovia · 03-12-2009, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lloyd_Christmas

My guess is that some punters are consistently good at it and others are consistently bad or just plain inconsistent in general.

My guess would be the same, but who knows

( and I think Hanson sucks)

Synovia · 03-12-2009, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lloyd_Christmas

I would agree that the I20 stat can be misleading. I'd like to see an I20 and an I10 stat together. Still won't paint the full picture, but it would be better than just having one of them.

My biggest issue with the I20 stat is all those punts from the 35-40 yard line that guys shank and end up stopping at the 18. If you only gained 17-22 yards on a punt, it wasn't worth punting.

swheeler23 · 03-12-2009, 04:11 PM

Brady will stuggle some when he comes back. Does everyone just expect him to continue like he did in 2007?

ScottieC · 03-12-2009, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lloyd_Christmas

Ok, I'm throwing down the annual gauntlet in honor of the original "There is no way David Patten makes this team" thread... for those who remember.

Unfortunately, I'm targeting the punter and who cares about punters?

Still, here are my arguments for dumping Hanson:

With our offense, we don't punt very often. But when we do, it is usually from around midfield or so... where you are trying to pin the opponent inside their 20 yard line.

Hanson is not good at this (in fact, only 4 punters in the entire league were worse than him at this.

********************************************

Inside the numbers:

At first glance, you see that 40% of his punts resulted in the opponent left inside their 20 yard line and it appears impressive. Then you realize that 60% of his punts where these sort of punts and he screwed up 10 of them, resulting in TBs (or 33.3% failure rate).

Most punters aren't lucky enough to be in that position on 60% of their punts. If they were, then the statistics show that almost all of them would have better "inside the 20" numbers than Hanson.

**********************************************

Due to our offensive success, I think we should bring in someone else to compete with Hanson other than Malone... maybe a low draft pick.

Preferably someone with better skill at pinning the opponent down inside their 20 yard line.

Raw distance is probably of less importance to us... an area where Hanson is only mediocre anyway.

I don't see Bill taking a chance - That said, he will bring in a few guys to compete for the job, like last year and in the end Hanson will make the team.

***DaBruinz*** · 03-12-2009, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lloyd_Christmas

Here is some more NE punting info:

Facts:

50 punts: 9 OutBnds, 7 Dwnd, 10 TchBcks, 13 FairCtch, 11 Rtrnd
Longest punt: 70 yds
Average punt: 44 yds (Tied for 15th)
Net Average: 36.8 yds (20th)
20 punts resulted in oppenent inside their 20 yd line (27th - see info below)
0 TDs
0 Blocked punts

Positives:

40% of all punts were a FC or Dwnd and an additional 10% (9 punts out of bounds) were probably coffin kicks.

I'm pretty good at math and 9 of 50 is not 10% but 18%. Also, it should be noted that he had the fewest punts returned in the league for punters with more than 40 punts with 11 or 22% of his punts.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lloyd_Christmas

40% of punts left the opponent inside their own 20 yd line.

No punts were blocked or returned for TDs.

Negatives:

20% of Hanson's punts were TBs (10 TBs on 50 punts). Unacceptable! Why is this unacceptable? How many of those punts should have been stopped inside the 5 by the coverage unit?

33.3% of his punts that were targeted for inside the 20 yd line resulted in TBs (10 out of 30). Where did you dig up this information? According to Hansen's Situational stats on NFL.Com, he had 14 punts from inside the opponents 50. Only 1 of 14 were returned. And 8 of 14 were downed inside the 20. Hanson had 29 punts from between the Pats 21 and the Pats 50. Of those punts, 8 were returned and 11 landed inside the 20.
-- That ranks 27th in the league. Only 4 teams had a worse %. Sea was tied with us.
-- The best: Colts 8.7%, Bengels: 10.7%, and Bears: 12.5%

14+ yds/punt average return is bad.

Punt return yardage is as much about the coverage team play as it is the punter. You heaping ALL the blame on Hanson is BS.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lloyd_Christmas

Net average punt of 36.8 yds ranks 20th in the league.
-- Note: 60% of Hanson's punts were targeted for inside the 20 yd line which will skew towards shorter punts.

Where did you get the stats that say that 60% of Hanson's punts were targeted for inside the 20?

RoughingthePasser · 03-12-2009, 04:41 PM

I disagree with the OP's thread.
There is still a way for Hanson to make the team.
I liked your observation on his short punting-I haven't seen enough of his punts to make a judgment on accuracy but he can handle distance well.
I'm sure we'll look at others too.