11-07-2008, 11:30 AM
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#54
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In the Starting Line-up
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 3,942
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Re: Mayo one of the top 5 most overrated players in the league
Quote:
Originally Posted by chris_in_sunnyvale
P.S. I have a lot of respect for KC Joyner's analysis in general; He was hired by ESPN well into his career as the Bill James of football so he's not just some talking head. His books (very much like Baseball Abstract for football) are highly praised.
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The problem with comparing KC Joyner to Bill James is that baseball is a game that inherently lends itself to statistical analysis because at its heart it is a one-on-one battle between a pitcher and a batter. Though there are odd happenings, for the most part it's just guy throws the ball, guy swings and either gets on base or gets out. With football, there is so much inherent variety because of the 11-on-11 nature of the game and the flow of play that to break it down statistically requires so much guesswork as to render the work scientifically irresponsible at best. Joyner's statistics come from film study and his data is often subjective. What does it mean that Brandon Marshall is "covered by someone," for instance? Does that mean in man-to-man? My opinion of this might be different from yours which might be different from KC Joyner's. Why are Mayo's numbers low at the point of attack when they would likely be significantly higher while playing in a 4-3 defense, for example? There's just too many variables in football.
Also, Bill James' doctrines have been adopted by several teams and have turned out well. KC Joyner's doctrines are almost completely for entertainment purposes for rubes reading ESPN. James also seems to make statistical analysis and then make assessments, while Joyner appears to make assumptions and then invent statistical calculations in order to prove it. His statistics aren't statistics, they're fun little distractions with no merit in the actual realities of the game of football.
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