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Old 02-18-2013, 06:12 AM   #41
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Default Re: Report: Welker won't be franchised

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Originally Posted by Archeryaddict12 View Post
. I am 100% confident welker is here to stay.
There is zero chance of Welker coming back, but there's nothing wrong with dreaming.
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Old 02-18-2013, 07:49 AM   #42
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Default Re: Report: Welker won't be franchised

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Originally Posted by nashvillepatsfan View Post
There is zero chance of Welker coming back, but there's nothing wrong with dreaming.
I would say the chances of Welker staying here are somewhere between 0 and 100%.

I wouldn't be confident of saying he's either 100% or 0% staying here. I'd love it if he re-upped. But we'll see.
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Old 02-18-2013, 09:14 AM   #43
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Default Re: Report: Welker won't be franchised

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Originally Posted by Helmet2Helmet View Post
From 2007 to 2012:

*Note - keep in mind the QBs throwing Calvin the ball. We're talking Kitna, Hill, Orvlosky, two years of Stafford season ending surgery... Welker has had Brady and one year of Cassel.*

Welker has had 37 TDs.
Johnson has had 54 TDs.

Welker has had 7459 Rec. Yds.
Johnson has had 7836 Rec. Yds.

Welker has had 672 receptions.
Johnson has had 488 receptions.

Yes, it has required Welker 184 more receptions to get 377 less yards.

Their production is not comparable. Imagine if Johnson had played with a respectable QB for half his career.

And to your point of Welker being the toughest receiver in the game, why did he drop that wide open third down pass in the AFCCG? Pitta got just as jacked up as Mayo and caught a TD directly after getting blasted. Welker gets jacked up, drops yet another key pass. Butterfingers was hearing footsteps.

Also, Johnson and Fitzgerald disappear no more than Welker. Once again, I have to ask if you have even watched them play? Johnson especially goes over the middle all the time. He's fearless. It's not like they just bomb it to him every single play, he runs every route.
It also required Detroit to pay Calvin twice as much over the same time frame to get 377 more yards. Welker was also one of 2-3 targets over most of that time span including Moss in 2007 and two emerging TE's in 2010-2012. Of course part of that was due to the fact that NE could afford them... Welker averaged $4.5M per over that time span vs. $9M per for Calvin so there is the value of production in relation to cost. A big part of Detroits problem for a long time has been overpaying talent relative to the value of it's production. Their top 3 talents currently take up $50M in cap space or 41% of their total cap. Why fans persist in calling for this team to adopt that cap management and roster construction model eludes me. Must be a fantasy football thing.

Calvin has had some big drops, just not in big games because he hasn't played in any...

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...ide-receivers/
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Old 02-18-2013, 09:31 AM   #44
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Default Re: Report: Welker won't be franchised

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It also required Detroit to pay Calvin twice as much over the same time frame to get 377 more yards. Welker was also one of 2-3 targets over most of that time span including Moss in 2007 and two emerging TE's in 2010-2012. Of course part of that was due to the fact that NE could afford them... Welker averaged $4.5M per over that time span vs. $9M per for Calvin so there is the value of production in relation to cost. A big part of Detroits problem for a long time has been overpaying talent relative to the value of it's production. Their top 3 talents currently take up $50M in cap space or 41% of their total cap. Why fans persist in calling for this team to adopt that cap management and roster construction model eludes me. Must be a fantasy football thing.

Calvin has had some big drops, just not in big games because he hasn't played in any...

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...ide-receivers/
Calvin may have had some big drops, but who wouldn't take him, Larry Fitzgerald or Percy Harvin on the Pats in a heartbeat?

Imagine one of those guys with Tom....

I think there's a chance Wes comes back. But it's going to be on Bill's terms. We'll learn soon how important it is for Wes to get a ring in NE and stay with Tom. I'm guessing that getting top dollar will overtake those motivations and we'll lose Wes. We shall see.
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Old 02-18-2013, 09:54 AM   #45
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Default Re: Report: Welker won't be franchised

To compare of Welker to other "outside" WR's like CJ or Boldin, etc, by yds, TD's or catches makes no sense because those guys have a far different set of skills than Welker. Welker uses his quickness and brain to get separation. The big difference between him and the others is that he NEEDS to be "open". If he doesn't have that "separation" Brady isn't going to throw him the ball. Guys like Boldin and CJ can be "covered" and still make the catch. Flacco threw a lot of prayers to Boldin and Smith in the hope they would come down with the ball or get a penalty. It was the kind of pass Brady rarely threw because none his receivers had those kinds of skills. Lloyd came the closest, but that was because of his extraordinary body control rather than his physical presence

The only 2 players the Pats have that give defenses that kind of threat are Gronk, and to a lesser extent Hernandez. I think most Pats fans would welcome a WR who possesses the kind of skills that would allow Brady to throw that ball to the "covered" WR more often knowing that the end result would likely be a penalty, catch or incomplete pass. Right now, if guys don't get separation, Brady has no where to go with the ball. I don't think that the Pats even practice making the 'Flacco prayer" kind of throw. While its a big part of the Ravens offense by design.
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:06 AM   #46
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it all comes down to cost as the patriots place a value on everything. This is why they are one of the best in maintaining a very competitive team while maintaining good cap health. If we sign him ...for big money....it will hurt us in other areas. You may think stats are awesome...but you have to consider at what cost. I would prefer they keep volmer and talib ..at reasonable ...costs...keeps our defense aggressive while keeping TB upright. I personally think....Welker is a great player but he is a product of our system as well as having a top notch QB. Place him on a team like the browns.....or bengals....and guess what ....his numbers will drop like a rock....

hopefully we can sign all our good players and still have cap space...else ...best of luck to him....
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:06 AM   #47
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The trouble with losing Wes Welker is that the Patriots haven't planned for his departure. They are lousy at drafting WRs and won't pay the big money for a good one in free agency. They will bring in a couple of Joey Galloway types. Don't be surprised if they put themselves in a real bind by also
cutting LLoyd to save his bonus money. Can you imagine Edleman and Slater
as our wide receivers?
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:06 AM   #48
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Default Re: Report: Welker won't be franchised

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Calvin may have had some big drops, but who wouldn't take him, Larry Fitzgerald or Percy Harvin on the Pats in a heartbeat?

Imagine one of those guys with Tom....

I think there's a chance Wes comes back. But it's going to be on Bill's terms. We'll learn soon how important it is for Wes to get a ring in NE and stay with Tom. I'm guessing that getting top dollar will overtake those motivations and we'll lose Wes. We shall see.
Imagine him at what expense? They've already committed $15M in cap average over the next 6 years to two TE's. You want them to commit $16M+ to one WR? Who had 1 TD through week 8 last season and 1 less than Welker in week 17? $60M+ committed to the top 5 players player contracts on the offensive side of the roster? That's half the cap so thanks, I'll pass.
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:08 AM   #49
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Default Re: Report: Welker won't be franchised

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To compare of Welker to other "outside" WR's like CJ or Boldin, etc, by yds, TD's or catches makes no sense because those guys have a far different set of skills than Welker. Welker uses his quickness and brain to get separation. The big difference between him and the others is that he NEEDS to be "open". If he doesn't have that "separation" Brady isn't going to throw him the ball. Guys like Boldin and CJ can be "covered" and still make the catch. Flacco threw a lot of prayers to Boldin and Smith in the hope they would come down with the ball or get a penalty. It was the kind of pass Brady rarely threw because none his receivers had those kinds of skills. Lloyd came the closest, but that was because of his extraordinary body control rather than his physical presence

The only 2 players the Pats have that give defenses that kind of threat are Gronk, and to a lesser extent Hernandez. I think most Pats fans would welcome a WR who possesses the kind of skills that would allow Brady to throw that ball to the "covered" WR more often knowing that the end result would likely be a penalty, catch or incomplete pass. Right now, if guys don't get separation, Brady has no where to go with the ball. I don't think that the Pats even practice making the 'Flacco prayer" kind of throw. While its a big part of the Ravens offense by design.
The amazing thing about Flacco's deep tosses wasn't that Boldin, Smith, or Jacoby occasionally came down with them. It's that NONE of them were intercepted in the playoffs. That's really hard to believe.

The Ravens had a very, very big horseshoe working during their run.
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:11 AM   #50
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Default Re: Report: Welker won't be franchised

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...Yes, it has required Welker 184 more receptions to get 377 less yards.
That might just be the silliest thing anyone has posted about football, anywhere, this offseason.
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