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Old 01-27-2013, 12:49 PM   #61
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Default Re: A Wes-less Offense

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Very true. But there are many ways to lose (just as there are many ways to win). What we haven't really seen in the playoffs for the Pats is a shoot out loss. The one time that might qualify was the 2006 AFCCG loss to Indy, 38-34. But even then, the Pats scored 7 off a pick-six, and offensively they only mustered 17 first downs and 319 total yards. But even if we count that one, we've had none in the Welker era.

In other words, why haven't we seen a playoff loss whereby the offense rolls but the defense gets shredded? Why is it consistently the case that a playoff loss involves the offense seriously underperforming?
The Jets game in 2010.
Again, I don't see the value in comparing stats in losses to the regular season, leaving out the wins, and calling it an offense that isn't built for the playoffs.
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Old 01-27-2013, 12:51 PM   #62
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Default Re: A Wes-less Offense

Good post, Andy. However, I disagree with your comment about Hernandez. Perhaps it is semantics. He has been playing WR for quite some time and rarely lines up as a tight end. When you say that moving him to WR would make him average, perhaps you are talking about a traditional outside WR. Hernandez as an inside WR is an ideal role for him and makes him way above average.
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Old 01-27-2013, 12:51 PM   #63
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It's not a playoff thing (aside from being injured by that point). It's just the teams we end up facing in the playoffs.

Because, surprise surprise, they're pretty good.

EDIT: The teams overall execution was suspect against the Ravens so perhaps it's a mental thing too. It is an extremely young team after all.
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The Patriots have been overachievers the past two years. It doesn't have the talent to compensate for injuries, and it wins so much because it puts in 99% effort in the regular season and plays with terrific schemes to mask its deficiencies.

But in the playoffs a good team at 99% will not beat emotional, talented teams that play at 100%. It's what happened against the Giants in 2011 and the Ravens in 2012.
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Old 01-27-2013, 12:55 PM   #64
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The Jets game in 2010.
Again, I don't see the value in comparing stats in losses to the regular season, leaving out the wins, and calling it an offense that isn't built for the playoffs.
The Jets game doesn't qualify, like at all. They averaged 32.4 points a game that year but only had 14 points until 24 seconds were left in the game. Even with that garbage time TD they still underperformed by more than 11 points from their season average.

No, scoring 21 points in a loss doesn't qualify it as a "shoot out loss". Not even close.

And I haven't "called it an offense that isn't built for the playoffs." Again, you're making things up. I *am* wondering why there is a pattern of serious underperformance by the offense in their playoff losses. As I suggested earlier, maybe it's the match ups. Four of the five games were against teams (Bal and NYG) that seem to present matchup problems for NE. Maybe it's just as simple as that.

But maybe not. And only a fool simply chalks it up to that without examining other possible reasons.
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Old 01-27-2013, 12:59 PM   #65
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But Brady played well vs the Jets, but for the screen Int (that counted for nothing btw)
And that team had Crumpler at TE (dropping a TD) and BJGE. The offense has evolved since then. Remember that year Brady threw 10 fewer passes per game than this year.
No, Brady didn't play well in that game. He started off well, but he struggled after that once the Jets defense got its confidence and began to force things into the short middle. Brady was unable to find an answer for that. As for "counted for nothing, that's simply not true". That screen pass INT cost the team points. That sure as heck counts for something.

And I know that the team had Crumpler. They also had Gronk and Hernandez. My point was that health is not the only needed component. These playoff losses have been the product of failures on multiple fronts: Health, execution, playcalling, WR3 talent/non-talent, inability to stretch/widen the field, etc....
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Old 01-27-2013, 01:01 PM   #66
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No, Brady didn't play well in that game. He started off well, but he struggled after that. As for counted for nothing, that's simply not true. That screen pass INT cost the team points. That sure as heck counts for something.

And I know that the team had Crumpler. They also had Gronk and Hernandez. My point was that health is not the only needed component. These playoff losses have been the product of failures on multiple fronts: Health, execution, playcalling, WR3 talent/non-talent, inability to stretch/widen the field, etc....
If I recall The offense has expected man coverage but was instead faced with a new look zone.
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The Patriots have been overachievers the past two years. It doesn't have the talent to compensate for injuries, and it wins so much because it puts in 99% effort in the regular season and plays with terrific schemes to mask its deficiencies.

But in the playoffs a good team at 99% will not beat emotional, talented teams that play at 100%. It's what happened against the Giants in 2011 and the Ravens in 2012.
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Old 01-27-2013, 01:03 PM   #67
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Nah, its not the first stretch of 3 games where Welker 'only' had 16 catches and 251 yards.
Your 'discussed here' response isn't really meaningful to me, because you talking about it a lot doesn't make it true.
It's never been just me, so your point is meaningless. Your unwillingness to admit what the team has said and the media has reported doesn't make your position true, it just makes further discussion of the issue not worth pursuing. When the point comes up, I continue to point out your error and you continue insisting you haven't made one. It's essentially become a cycle of life sort of thing.
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Old 01-27-2013, 01:05 PM   #68
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This is a bit of a stretch.
Go take a look at the team over the course of the season, and imagine Welker going down. I see 4 easy to find likely, or at least quite possible, losses:

Buffalo
Miami
Jacksonville
New York

I'd also look at the Denver game, where Welker played a very significant role, particularly with some big conversions early on, as a game that had the potential to be a loss without Welker.
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Old 01-27-2013, 01:09 PM   #69
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If I recall The offense has expected man coverage but was instead faced with a new look zone.
They also thought that Ryan was going to bring the house, but he sat back in nickel and defended the field. The Patriots would probably have blown the Jets out if they'd scored TDs on those first two drives, because the Jets were set up to crack mentally after 45-3, but once the score was held at 3-0, the Patriots were then held to a 3-and-out and the Jets went up 7-0, the difference in the confidence of the Jets was almost tangible.
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Old 01-27-2013, 01:39 PM   #70
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They also thought that Ryan was going to bring the house, but he sat back in nickel and defended the field. The Patriots would probably have blown the Jets out if they'd scored TDs on those first two drives, because the Jets were set up to crack mentally after 45-3, but once the score was held at 3-0, the Patriots were then held to a 3-and-out and the Jets went up 7-0, the difference in the confidence of the Jets was almost tangible.
You're talking about the Jets walking the fine line between despair and confidence here but it brings to mind this. Are we really sure that the Patriots have moved beyond that 2009 team that in BB's words to Brady was not mentally tough? I had thought so but the ravens loss made me wonder once again. I may be emotionally over reacting but both the the offense and the defense have exhibited behavior where they're doing fine for a portion of the game but once something goes wrong, a cascade of wrongs follow. The exact opposite of this took place during the Lombardi winning years. Pats would hang close and tough until that opponent turnover moment and thereafter the opponent would do the imploding. Even with Mayo & Wilfork, there still seems to be something still missing in the character of the 2012 team.
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