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Old 01-26-2013, 07:22 PM   #41
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Default Re: Finding a gem in the WR free agency list (more realistic options)

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Originally Posted by Spergon Wynn View Post
Carolina Steve Smith is a FA? Why aren't more people talking about this?

Obviously he's getting up there in age but I think he can still produce and has some speed.
I'm sure he could produce on some level, but it's his age and he didn't have the best of yrs getting looked over for Brandon LaFell a lot.

He would offer somewhat of a more physical presence as he plays better than his height suggests, but he isn't really what most are looking for.

He is their typical kind of signing though, a proven vet that won't cost nearly as much as many other guys, and one that can still play. No matter what all of our specific opinions are on Smith, that decision will obviously be left up to Belichick to choose.

It's all going to depend on the Welker situation. A guy like Smith could be a fine jump over someone like Edelman as the WR3, or I suppose he could possibly even come in and show more than Llyod in TC (doubtful due to Llyod's one year experience here) as our WR2--pushing Llyod down to a WR3.

However if Welker isn't retained, a guy like Smith may be needed more than we realize. The problem is that he doesn't really solve the need for the speedier outside threat who offers a physical presence, and would be continuing the string of smurfy blue WR's.

It will be interesting to see how Belichick handles the situation. He may want to go with the more proven vet in FA like a Steve Smith, and then gamble in the draft with a more physical presence or speed burner. If that's the case, we'll need to hope that it works out.
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Old 01-26-2013, 07:38 PM   #42
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Default Re: Finding a gem in the WR free agency list (more realistic options)

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If Wes Welker is reading, he is feeling pretty good right now.
I really don't see that much difference compared to last year to be completely honest, although you may feel differently. We usually see a nice handful of top tiered FA's at the position, and then a decent falloff. I'm seeing a lot of the same this year, with the prospects of a flat cap added, although the cap floor probably offsets that too on some level.

I would certainly agree that Welker and his camp are feeling good about their prospects no matter what though, as he has earned that right.

Top Free agent WR 2013

Greg Jennings
Mike Wallace
Dwayne Bowe
Wes Welker
Danny Amendola
Victor Cruz (RFA)
Emanual Sanders (RFA)


Top 2012 Free Agent WR

Vincent Jackson
Reggie Wayne
Marques Colston
Brandon Llyod
Robert Meachem
Mario Manningham
Laurent Robinson
Mike Wallace (RFA)

I actually think that one could make an argument that this year's FA class is better talent wise at the position, although there may not be as many "middle tiered" guys as last year either.
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Old 01-26-2013, 07:39 PM   #43
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Default Re: Finding a gem in the WR free agency list (more realistic options)

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It's my opinion that this team will not spend the kind of money necessary for a "bigger name" WR who many here clamor for, so I would instantly cross someone like D.Bowe/G.Jennings off the list pretty much immediately. Others may feel differently, but I just think that there are many hints to the contrary in the past with this kind of system (not to mention Belichick's feelings), and I also believe that both re-signing some of our own + the needs on defense would prevent us from going after one of these 10 million dollar guys due to financial factors.

It's also my opinion that although we'll almost certainly be drafting at least one WR in the upcoming draft, but in 9/10 times that WR is going to be a developmental prospect of sorts for the first year. That is simply due to the complexity of the offense and other variables that go into it. Belichick tends to prefer many of the proven vets at this position, so free agency in terms of a middle to lower tier will need to be explored for options here too.

Obviously, the Welker situation (along with the Edelman situation) is an important factor to keep in mind. That said, here are some of the prospects for "rejuvenation," and some that may still be growing and progressing. Many have speed, hands, or at least some of the skills that are needed to be a somewhat productive WR, but have not shown enough of the overall quality to be in the list of elites. Many do not, and were overhyped to begin with.

In other words, we may once again look to the FA list in terms of cost efficiency and trying to turn rocks (some of them shiny rocks) into gold. We all want more of a downfield threat, not to mention a physical presence. Here are some of the middle/lower tiered players who can potentially stretch the field and/or offer a more physical presence:


---Louis Murphy (CAR)
---Johnnie Knox (CHI) EDIT: may not be a FA due to remaining on PUP for the 2012 season like M.Pryor
---Josh Cribbs (CLE)
---M.Massaquoi (CLE)
---Donnie Avery (IND)
---Devery Henderson (NO)
---Ramses Barden (NYG)
---Dominic Hixon (NYG)
---Jerome Simpson (MIN)
---Brian Hartline (MIA)
---Ted Ginn (SF)
---Brandon Gibson (STL)
---Steve Smith (CAR)
---Derek Hagan (OAK)
---Legadu Nannee (FA)


We also have the "usual suspects" of the following, but who are already pretty much crossed off the list due to obvious reasons:

---Braylon Edwards
---Plaxico Burress
---Terrell Owens
---Randy Moss
---Mark Clayton
---Mike Williams
---Mike Sims-Walker
---Lee Evans


We can also assume that these following WR free agents will command too much money or are RFA's, so they would not fall into this category of middle/lower tiered:

---Greg Jennings
---Mike Wallace
---Dwayne Bowe
---Danny Amendola
---Victor Cruz (RFA)
---Emanuel Sanders (RFA)


Does anyone have any idea or opinons on any of these "lesser" free agent WRs who may be more realistic and cost effective? The WR corps is pretty much depleted, so we're somewhat likely to be signing someone off of this list at some point in time.
I would go for Avery, Henderson, and Hartline...and also bring in Nannee for a look.
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Old 01-26-2013, 08:27 PM   #44
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Default Re: Finding a gem in the WR free agency list (more realistic options)

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Originally Posted by supafly View Post
I really don't see that much difference compared to last year to be completely honest, although you may feel differently. We usually see a nice handful of top tiered FA's at the position, and then a decent falloff. I'm seeing a lot of the same this year, with the prospects of a flat cap added, although the cap floor probably offsets that too on some level.

I would certainly agree that Welker and his camp are feeling good about their prospects no matter what though, as he has earned that right.

Top Free agent WR 2013

Greg Jennings
Mike Wallace
Dwayne Bowe
Wes Welker
Danny Amendola
Victor Cruz (RFA)
Emanual Sanders (RFA)


Top 2012 Free Agent WR

Vincent Jackson
Reggie Wayne
Marques Colston
Brandon Llyod
Robert Meachem
Mario Manningham
Laurent Robinson
Mike Wallace (RFA)

I actually think that one could make an argument that this year's FA class is better talent wise at the position, although there may not be as many "middle tiered" guys as last year either.
Danny Amendola is so overrated on this board it's not even funny.

If Wes Welker didn't exist Danny Amendola would be a WR3 scrub nobody would even consider. People are so desperate to find the next Wes Welker they're slamming the label on anyone white and short.
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The Patriots have been overachievers the past two years. It doesn't have the talent to compensate for injuries, and it wins so much because it puts in 99% effort in the regular season and plays with terrific schemes to mask its deficiencies.

But in the playoffs a good team at 99% will not beat emotional, talented teams that play at 100%. It's what happened against the Giants in 2011 and the Ravens in 2012.
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Old 01-26-2013, 08:30 PM   #45
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Default Re: Finding a gem in the WR free agency list (more realistic options)

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Danny Amendola is so overrated on this board it's not even funny.

If Wes Welker didn't exist Danny Amendola would be a WR3 scrub nobody would even consider. People are so desperate to find the next Wes Welker they're slamming the label on anyone white and short.
How many games have you seen Amendola play? People tend to rate him because he's a fine receiver.

Amendola's problem is he doesn't appear durable.
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Old 01-26-2013, 08:45 PM   #46
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Default Re: Finding a gem in the WR free agency list (more realistic options)

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How many games have you seen Amendola play? People tend to rate him because he's a fine receiver.

Amendola's problem is he doesn't appear durable.
and I was thinking this afternoon as I drove home from up north..."I really hope Edelman doesn't have Amendola disease.."...
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Old 01-26-2013, 08:47 PM   #47
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Default Re: Finding a gem in the WR free agency list (more realistic options)

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Originally Posted by Spergon Wynn View Post
Carolina Steve Smith is a FA? Why aren't more people talking about this?

Obviously he's getting up there in age but I think he can still produce and has some speed.
He's not a free agent. Signed a four year contract last April.
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Old 01-26-2013, 08:48 PM   #48
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Default Re: Finding a gem in the WR free agency list (more realistic options)

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How many games have you seen Amendola play? People tend to rate him because he's a fine receiver.

Amendola's problem is he doesn't appear durable.
Exactly. His durability concerns are the one negative to his play. While it may be just a case of bad luck this year and last, he hasn't played long enough for a large enough sample size to determine moving forward.

Either way, someone is certainly going to take a chance with him if STL is not able to afford keeping him. His reputation and tough play are worthy enough of that label even with the durability issues.

The biggest question will be how much those durability issues will affect his contract moving forward.
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Old 01-26-2013, 08:52 PM   #49
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Default Re: Finding a gem in the WR free agency list (more realistic options)

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He's not a free agent. Signed a four year contract last April.
That's the trouble with the damned internet. These sites don't update their information

Luckily I caught Johnnie Knox on my own. I'll go back and take Smith off the list. The Panthers don't really have to make a decision on him until next offseason, as you are right that he signed a contract last spring to help free up money.

Thanks for the catch, Sciz. It doesn't appear that I can edit the post anymore.

Steve Smith’s contract gives Panthers $4.75 million in cap space | ProFootballTalk
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Old 01-26-2013, 08:59 PM   #50
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Default Re: Finding a gem in the WR free agency list (more realistic options)

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I really don't see that much difference compared to last year to be completely honest, although you may feel differently. We usually see a nice handful of top tiered FA's at the position, and then a decent falloff. I'm seeing a lot of the same this year, with the prospects of a flat cap added, although the cap floor probably offsets that too on some level.

I would certainly agree that Welker and his camp are feeling good about their prospects no matter what though, as he has earned that right.

Top Free agent WR 2013

Greg Jennings
Mike Wallace
Dwayne Bowe
Wes Welker
Danny Amendola
Victor Cruz (RFA)
Emanual Sanders (RFA)


Top 2012 Free Agent WR

Vincent Jackson
Reggie Wayne
Marques Colston
Brandon Llyod
Robert Meachem
Mario Manningham
Laurent Robinson
Mike Wallace (RFA)

I actually think that one could make an argument that this year's FA class is better talent wise at the position, although there may not be as many "middle tiered" guys as last year either.
My point was that you have a group of guys who will be asking for a ton of money, then a bunch of nothing.
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