There’s only one NFL game left in the season, the Super Bowl is here, and the Patriots and Seahawks are the final two standing. This wasn’t a matchup many saw as the big game when the season began back in September, but no one told these two teams.
It is interesting that whenever there is a head-coaching vacancy, all the talk goes to the latest young offensive play-caller du jour, yet the two teams in the Super Bowl are headed by defensive coaches.
But one look at how the Patriots and Seahawks got to this point is a testament to their head coaches, who have excelled at building relationships with their players, and the messages have resonated with both the younger players as well as with the veterans.
Building those connections and getting all of the players to buy in is more important than being a whiz kid with Xs and Os.
The big game will be broadcast by NBC and can be seen in the Boston area on NBC 10 Boston. Mike Tirico will handle play-by-play duties with Cris Collinsworth as the color analyst. Melissa Stark and Kaylee Hartung will work from the sidelines.
The game is also carried on 98.5 The Sports Hub. Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback Scott Zolak, who will provide color analysis. The games are produced by Marc Cappello. If you are in the car, you can tune in on SiriusXM: 225 (NE), 226 (Seattle).
So, without any further ado, let’s quickly get to the matchups.
Patriots RBs vs. Seahawks Front Seven — Edge Seattle
The Patriots’ running game has been very solid down the stretch and into the playoffs. Rhamondre Stevenson has run hard, and against Denver, had most of his yards after contact.
However, Seattle has arguably the best run defense in the NFL. This is a matchup that Seattle should win. They flow to the ball extremely well, and it will be difficult for the Patriots to get consistent push from the offensive line against Seattle’s front seven.
This is where they need Drake Maye to throw caution to the wind and have him running to keep the chains moving, especially when he can escape pressure on passing downs. That’s the one caveat here.
Patriots WRs vs. Seahawks Secondary — Edge Seattle
Drake Maye has been sacked far too many times this postseason, and the Patriots’ passing game, which was prolific all season, has been stuck in neutral. Part of it could possibly be weather-related, but they just haven’t been clicking.
They need to rediscover their magic and their explosiveness against the Seahawks defense. Seattle has playmakers at all three levels of the defense. They have seven players with 20 or more pressures, so there isn’t one particular player that the Patriots need to be aware of.
One matchup to watch will be Will Campbell and DeMarcus Lawrence. The rookie had a big bounce-back game against Denver after struggling against Los Angeles and Houston.
I expect Devon Witherspoon to cover Stefon Diggs, but the Patriots need to scheme either Kayshon Boutte or Kyle Williams against Josh Jobe for some deep shots. He’s no easy touch, but he isn’t as good as their other corners.
If the Patriots are to be successful, they need the big guys, Hunter Henry and Mack Hollins, to be factors. They’ll need to get TreVeyon Henderson more than four snaps and get him the ball in space.
Next up is the Seahawks’ offense.
Seahawks RBs vs. NE Front Seven — Edge New England
The Patriots, with Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, and Khyiris Tonga, have been outstanding at taking away the opponent’s running game this postseason. We won’t know until gametime whether Robert Spillane will play; he re-injured his ankle in Denver.
Seattle wants to run the ball; they were third in rushing attempts this season. Their running game is kind of feast or famine: on the one hand, with running backs who had over 75 carries, Kenneth Walker was 45th in success rate. But on the other hand, when it came to explosive 20+ yard runs, Walker was third.
The Patriots have to eliminate those explosive runs in which Walker breaks several tackles and breaks out for a big gain. Here, the Patriots’ interior defensive linemen, Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, should more than handle the Seahawks interior line. Williams, especially against Anthony Bradford, should be a mismatch.
Seahawks WRs vs. NE Secondary — Edge New England
Are we noticing a trend yet? Yes, this is going to be a defensive game. Another interesting tidbit is that Sam Darnold, who was immense in the Conference Championship Game against the Rams, is 3rd in the league in EPA when he isn’t pressured. If he operates from a clean pocket on Sunday, it will not look good for the Patriots’ defense.
But when he’s pressured, he drops to 28th and has shown that he is prone to turning the ball over. Pressure is the key, especially on third down. He has Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who was the most prolific WR in the league this season, and a former Super Bowl MVP, Cooper Kupp. JSN had 1,793 yards and 10 TDs, and Seattle moves him all over the formation, and he will draw Christian Gonzalez on most downs. But the Patriots must account for him on every down.
Special Teams — Edge Seattle
The Patriots and Seahawks’ special teams are really matched up well here. Both are good in the kicking game, have excellent punt returners, and very good coverage units. But in the kickoff return game, Seattle has the edge with Rashid Shaheed returning both kicks and punts.
The Patriots’ kickoff return unit hasn’t been the most consistent.
Prediction:
The Patriots and Seahawks are both very well-coached teams, which is why they both had 14-3 records in the regular season. Both head coaches (Mike Vrabel and Mike McDonald) are outstanding, and both offensive coordinators (Josh McDaniels and Klint Kubiak) are outstanding as well.
But it is here that the Patriots get the edge. No coach on either side has McDaniels’ Super Bowl experience. Vrabel won three Super Bowls as a player, but McDaniels will coach in his 10th Super Bowl on Sunday; he is one of the few Patriots who were part of all six Super Bowl-winning teams. And coaching matters.
Keys to the Game from a Patriots’ perspective:
Drake Maye Running Has To Be a Factor: Maye has to take off when the situation is right and keep the chains moving. The running game will need his legs to keep the pass rush at bay this week. He has the athleticism to flip the field with his running.
Big, Chunk Passing Plays Must Return For The Patriots’ Offense: Seattle’s defense doesn’t have any weaknesses, but some chunk plays will be there if the execution is on point. Henry, Hollins, and Pop Douglas will have to earn their pay in the intermediate and middle areas of the field.
Boutte and Williams will be looked to in providing those hole shots or deep passes when the offense takes a shot.
Pressure Sam Darnold, Especially On Third Down: Seattle will try to keep their offense in very manageable third-down situations. The Patriots’ front seven will be looking to keep the Seahawks in obvious passing situations (third and long) on third downs and bring pressure on Darnold.
They’ll be looking to get him to throw off platform and be forced to get rid of the ball early.
This one will be a low-scoring game until a flurry of late scores happens as the defenses wear down. Turnovers will decide the game one way or another. A very late Andy Borregales field goal gives the Patriots a very big upset win.
Patriots 24-23
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A former US Army Special Forces NCO and Officer, Steve has been following the Patriots since their days at Fenway Park. Steve has worked in the film industry and wrote as an Military Editor at SpecialOperations.com, 1945.com as a reporter for the Millbury Daily Voice, Millbury-Sutton Chronicle, and the Grafton News. He's also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)
Gutsy call Steve , I agree Maye hast run and they must put pressure on Donald