Patriots – Texans Key Matchups, Divisional Playoff Game
Patriots-Texans Divisional Playoff: Matchup Analysis and Game Prediction
Follow us
Follow Us
🕑 Read Time: 4 minutes
Posted Under: Patriots Commentary
HOME > Patriots Blog > Patriots Commentary
The Patriots and Texans are part of the final eight teams in the playoffs, just a win away from the AFC Conference Game, and two wins away from a Super Bowl berth.
Houston is the hottest team in the league, having won ten games in a row, and is fresh off a 30-6 dominating win over the Steelers on Monday night. They are in the top three of most defensive metrics. It is a very talented defensive group.
Houston’s offense is good and, at times, can be very good, but they also, at times, get bogged down, and their middle-of-the-road ranking reflects that.
ESPN will broadcast this week’s game and can be seen locally in Boston on WCVB-TV Channel 5. Joe Buck will handle play-by-play duties with Troy Aikman as the color analyst. Lisa Salters and Laura Rutledge will provide analysis from the sidelines
The game is also carried on 98.5 The Sports Hub. Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback Scott Zolak, who will provide color analysis. The games are produced by Marc Cappello and SiriusXM: 225 (NE), 226 (HOU).
So, let’s quickly get to the matchups.
The Patriots’ running game has definitely been excellent down the stretch with the 1-2 punch of Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. Since Week 13, the Patriots are averaging 164.6 yards per game.
Houston’s run defense since Week 13 has been excellent, allowing just 91.7 yards per game. They’ve also forced a dozen turnovers in those seven games.
One area that the Patriots could target in Houston’s run defense is with Drake Maye on designed QB runs and scrambles. In the same time frame, the Texans’ EPA is the 4th highest against designed QB runs.
However, they have used a linebacker as a spy when playing man coverage and I would expect that to continue.
The Patriots’ passing game ranks #4 in yards gained but 23rd in passes thrown. What does that mean? It means Drake Maye has been incredibly efficient in throwing the ball. Maye leads the league or is in the top five of most passing categories in the NFL in 2025, including completion percentage (72.0), yards per attempt (8.9), and passer rating (113.5).
Houston’s defense is outstanding: # 2 in scoring (17.4 PPG), #1 in total yards (279.1 YPG), #5 on third down (34.9%), and #3 in takeaways (29). The bookend pass rushers Danielle Hunter (15 sacks) and Will Anderson (12 sacks) are outstanding. Their secondary is excellent as well, with Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter at outside corner, and Jaylen Reed, Jalen Pitre, and Calen Bullock.
In the strength vs strength matchup, look for Maye to take some deep shots using play-action passing. Since Week 13, the Texans are middle of the road (14th), with the 5th highest EPA per play when opponents took deep shots. It depends on Maye getting time to throw, and the Texans pass rush against the Patriots offensive line will bear watching. As this could be a mismatch if the Texans get rolling.
Another area to watch would be the screen game, another area where the Texans have allowed the 3rd-most yards over the past seven games. The Patriots are not a big-screen-passing team, but they could throw in a wrinkle or two here.
Josh McDaniels will have to be on top of his game (more below). But the Patriots get the slight advantage here, especially being at home, where Maye can audible with no crowd noise when on offense.
Next up is the Texans’ offense.
The Patriots’ run defense got a bunch of key players back, Milton Williams, Robert Spillane, and Harold Landry, and the run defense looked more like it did early in the season and held the Chargers to just 87 yards. And Khyiris Tonga, their big run stuffer, was a full participant in practice on Thursday, after he’s missed the past three games.
Houston got a big game out of Woody Marks, who rushed for 112 yards against the Steelers on Monday night. He and Nick Chubb present a good 1-2 combination. The Texans rushed for 164 yards, their second-highest output of the season.
But with the Patriots getting all of their players back on the front seven, they get the nod here in what will be a physical matchup. The Texans’ OL is 30th in pass blocking win rate and 32nd in run blocking win rate.
The Texans will probably be without their leading receiver, Nico Collins, who suffered a concussion in Pittsburgh on a play where his forehead slammed the ground without his being able to brace himself. He hauled in 71 passes for 1,117 yards this season. That would be a significant loss. However, Christian Kirk had a huge game in Pittsburgh, with eight catches for 144 yards and a score. He’ll be in the slot and matched up with Marcus Jones.
Tight end Dalton Schultz (82-777) will be a tough matchup for the linebackers and safeties. Jayden Higgins, Xavier Hutchinson, and Jaylin Noel give QB C.J. Stroud plenty of good targets.
The Patriots got other good news on Thursday, as CB Christian Gonzalez was a full participant at Thursday’s practice, pointing to his playing on Sunday. Last week, the Patriots’ secondary was outstanding in coverage and sacked Justin Herbert six times.
Look for the Patriots to mix in zone coverage this week, as that’s been an area where Stroud hasn’t performed exceptionally well. He’s also struggled against pressure, and I’d look for the Patriots to be dialling it up again this week.
The Patriots and Texans’ special teams are really matched up well here. Houston has been as good as New England, and the Texans get the nod at kicker with Ka’imi Fairbairn having the experience factor over Andy Borregales. Houston’s coverage units have been better, but the Patriots get the nod in the punt return game with Marcus Jones. Both punters are remarkably similar in terms of numbers.
The Patriots and Texans will be an excellent, if somewhat low-scoring, affair. It will all come down to execution. The Texans’ defense can take over and dominate a game, as we saw against Pittsburgh. But Josh McDaniels has been here before; he’s gone against some great defenses through the years and found ways to keep the offense moving…and more importantly, scoring.
It is going to be a rock fight, but I think the Patriots’ defense is the difference here. They’ll keep Stroud in check, and Drake Maye and the offense will score just enough for the Patriots to move on to the conference championship game.
Patriots 24-20
Follow me on Twitter @SteveB7SFG or email me at [email protected]
Listen to our PatsFans.com Patriots No Huddle podcasts on Apple and YouTube as Derek Havens, Mike D’Abate, and I discuss the latest Patriots news and game analysis.
From our archive - this week all-time:
April 7 - April 22 (Through 26yrs)
Join 2,000+ fans getting exclusive stats, analysis, and insights delivered straight to their inbox every week. Never miss a play.
It feels like the AFC championship game comes a week early in Foxboro. Solid chance the winner goes to the Superbowl. This is a game where the winner will ‘eek out’ points however you get it: A big play score on offense. Defensive turnovers flipped into FG’s. Special teams scores/turnovers. There probably will be zero 8-10 play long drives for both offenses. For the Pats, I see their D needing to win this game alike the Chargers game, where they essentially shutdown scoring. Drake Maye and the offense’s #1 job is ball protection and field position. If you look at… Read more »