GEORGE: 11 NFL Thoughts from Week 18
Insights and predictions on Patriots' playoff path, key matchups, and NFL drama from Week 18
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Some thoughts after a crazy week 18 to close out the 2025 NFL Regular Season:
1) Okay, so the Patriots just missed out on the top AFC seed. Get over it. It’s playoff time, and the Patriots are back on the NFL “A” list.
But Bob, you say. You told us we can’t win in Denver. Doesn’t that ruin our season and a chance to go to Super Bowl LX?
There, there. Sit down and let me make you feel better.
You could be a Tampa Bay fan. They beat Carolina on Saturday, then threw themselves on the mercy of the New Orleans Saints. The Saints lose to Atlanta, giving the division title to Carolina, who wins a three-way tiebreaker with Tampa Bay and Atlanta. Tampa Bay goes home for the season. You call that fair?
Atlanta’s reward? On Sunday night, their head coach, Raheem Morris, was fired.
Buffalo has to play at Jacksonville next weekend. What if it’s warm and humid? How do Bills fans feel when they were almost certain they would play next weekend at Foxborough?
Try being a 49ers fan. They lost the top seed at home to Seattle and now they are the six seed. They have to play at Philadelphia, and are three point road dogs.
Even Giants fans have to be gnashing their teeth. They win their regular season finale, and in doing so drop to the number five pick in the 2026 Draft, handing the top pick to the Las Vegas Raiders. Does this story sound familiar to you by any chance?
So, take the two seed, focus on beating the Chargers, with whom you have a good history against in the postseason. Things may break right for your team.
2) Geeks of the week: The absolute last thing the Patriots need right now is distractions from players facing legal issues. Both Stefon Diggs and Christian Barmore are reportedly facing charges involving mistreatment of women. This isn’t as monumental as what Aaron Hernandez went through last decade, but it is still reprehensible if it is proven that the players are guilty as charged. Their lawyers are trying to get their arraignments moved to March. The NFL hasn’t yet put them on the Commissioner Exempt list (key word: “yet”). So they keep playing. Obey the law, fellas, and keep your noses clean.
3) Let’s have some fun being Nostradamus regarding next weekend.
Los Angeles Rams (-10) at Carolina
The two four seeds in these playoffs, Carolina and Pittsburgh, are the underbelly of these NFL playoffs. They are the Tulane and James Madison of the NFL. Carolina won a division where all teams had a losing record (as opposed to the NFC North, where all teams had a winning record). The Rams have too much for Carolina to handle at home. Davante Adams should be healthy and back in action, and teaming up with Puka Nacua makes this tandem arguably the best in the NFL. Tyler Higbee came back during Week 18, so Matthew Stafford should be loaded for bear and win easily in this game. Don’t expect Bryce Young to have much success at all against the Rams defense.
San Francisco at Philadelphia (-3)
Is this game finally the one that outs Brock Purdy as more of a Mister Irrelevant instead of Mister Superstar? The 49ers frittered away a chance to be the top seed with a loss at home to Seattle this past Saturday. They played carelessly on the big stage, and now have to go to Philadelphia. The 49ers should win the coaching matchup, as Nick Sirianni did beat Buffalo two weeks ago in a coaching slopfest. Philly should win largely because they host the game in likely freezing conditions. If Sirianni can get out of the way and let Jalen Hurts work his magic with his superstars on offense, the Eagles will fly to the Divisional round.
Green Bay at Chicago (pick ‘em)
The key to this game is the health of Jordan Love. I don’t have faith in the Bears to play winning football in this game even at home. Rome Odunze getting hurt hinders the Bears greatly. But if Love can play and play at his highest level, the Packers could come into Soldier Field and win. Chicago has a chance if Malik Willis has to play quarterback.
4) Back to school: This is a great final four, unless you are ESPN and care deeply about television ratings. At least the Peach and Fiesta Bowls are on Thursday and Friday nights, completely avoiding the NFL playoffs. Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia all lost last week. So, minus all that star power, you are left with Miami versus Ole Miss and Indiana versus Oregon. Both games should be compelling and greatly entertaining. I like Miami to get by Mississippi, and I like Indiana in the rematch with Oregon (the Hoosiers won 30-20 in Eugene, Oregon earlier this year).
5) Someone tell Fernando Mendoza to give Derek Carr a call. Mendoza is deeply religious, a throwback to Tim Tebow. Carr wants to become a minister. Carr played most of his career with the Raiders, and now the infamous Raider Nation has relocated to Sin City. Can Mendoza enjoy himself in Las Vegas as a Raider?
6) Now, to the AFC.
Houston (-3) at Pittsburgh
C.J. Stroud has a long leash here, as well as a large margin for error. Pittsburgh will realize very quickly that offensively they are in over their head with the top-ranked defense. Houston wins a low scoring game, and all football fans will be wondering if Aaron Rodgers will begin the countdown clock to enshrinement in Canton. This game will be slightly more compelling than the Rams-Panthers game. But it won’t be a must-see game unless you live in and around Harris County, Texas.
Buffalo (-1) at Jacksonville
I’m going to predict that by next weekend, Jacksonville becomes the betting favorite. The current forecast says cloudy and 71 degrees on Sunday. What you the Patriot fans want is humid weather. Buffalo wants freezing and possibly snow. The weather should favor the Jaguars, who have won eight in a row. The Jags can match the Bills for physicality. Josh Allen is still the bell cow for the Bills, but Trevor Lawrence will keep the Bills defense occupied all game long. I like Jacksonville in this game, and it might be a close and tense battle. Being at home makes the difference here for the Jaguars.
7) Remember him: I was five years old in 1963 and was not yet a football fan (I started watching the Giants about 1966). The Boston Patriots came out to Balboa Stadium on the campus of San Diego High School to play the San Diego Chargers in the AFL Championship Game. Keith Lincoln almost singlehandedly bludgeoned the vaunted Patriot defense. Before everyone was settled in their seats, the Bolts led 14-0 thanks to a 67-yard rushing touchdown by Lincoln. In the fourth quarter, Lincoln would help seal the 51-10 Charger win by catching a 25-yard pass from backup quarterback John Hadl. Lincoln finished with a stunning 329 all-purpose yards, 206 of them rushing. Lincoln played his college ball at Washington State College (now University) and can be seen on YouTube as a Cougar with Keith Jackson (later of ABC, yes, that Keith Jackson) at the mike. Lincoln was clobbered by Buffalo linebacker Mike Stratton in the 1964 AFL title game, and retired after the 1968 season. He passed away in 2019 at the age of 80.
8) And finally, after all these years:
Los Angeles Chargers at New England (-3.5)
Both the Patriot defense and Charger offense are banged up. The Chargers beat the Patriots in the last two matchups in the regular season, but those wins were against the previous Patriots, not the current Patriots. The Chargers’ strength is their defense, led by defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. The Patriots win if three things happen: Josh McDaniels comes up with a workable and effective offensive game plan that Maye can execute comfortably, the defense gets more of its injured key players back and overpowers the depleted Charger offensive line, and the team takes no naps (like the second quarter on Sunday). If these things happen, Patriots win.
9) How things change. Two years ago, I was rooting for Jim Harbaugh and Minter to win a national championship for Michigan. Now they are sworn enemies.
Harbaugh played for Michigan as well as being their head coach. Meanwhile, Mike Vrabel played his college ball at Ohio State and later was an assistant coach. The greatest rivalry in college football. It means zippo in the NFL, of course. But to those who are personally affected by this rivalry, everything related to it strikes a nerve.
10) One more thing on the NFC South mess. I am sure that if the NFL could fix this (all teams, sub-.500, two non-playoff teams decide the division champion), Roger Goodell would find a way. That said, as much as I despise for them owning any history regarding Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr., I actually feel sorry for Tampa Bay and their fans for winning a tough game on Saturday against Carolina, then having to sit and watch a Saints-Falcons game the next day and watching their entire season placed in the hands of the 6-10 Saints.
The Falcons’ victory gave the division title to the Panthers. If the Saints had won, the Buccaneers would be in the playoffs as NFC South champs. This is as unfair as it gets. But all the tiebreaker rules were followed correctly. And in this case, things fell the way of the Panthers. You can’t do what I suggested for college, that being eliminate automatic bids. In this case, inviting only the seven best teams in each conference, regardless of division standing, where you would literally eliminate division consequences overall. It’s a fluky situation that deserves some scrutiny, but a solution may be something only Albert Einstein or Solomon could broker.
11) More Harbaugh news: the earth just shook. Adam Schefter reported on Tuesday that John Harbaugh was fired by the Ravens after 19 years as their head coach. Not surprising, but still shocking. Jim should tell John to get his posterior on a plane for Providence and hang with him and his Chargers this weekend. Say what you want, but John was a legendary coaching opponent of Bill Belichick for many years, and the two men authored some of the more classic games between two rivals in recent NFL history.
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