The Bills ended the Patriots’ 10-game winning streak on Sunday, and as Mike Vrabel stated in January during his introductory press conference, times like this are a test of your team’s culture.
“When you get hit in the mouth, or you’re down, or the chips are against you, then you can take a snapshot of what your team looks like, and then you’ll find out what culture you have,” Vrabel said.
This is one of those times, with the opportunity to clinch the division, they let a 21-point lead slip away. This week’s game will matter little in the divisional standings, since the Patriots have to win their remaining two divisional games to clinch now.
But from a team standpoint, this game is significant as a bounce-back from a very disappointing loss against a playoff team. And the Ravens, after getting off to a horrible 1-4 start this season, have righted the ship. They played their most complete game of the season in a 24-0 shutout of the Bengals.
NBC will broadcast this week’s game and can be seen in the Boston area on NBC 10 Boston. Mike Tirico will handle play-by-play duties with Cris Collinsworth as the color analyst. Melissa Stark will work from the sidelines.
The game is also carried on 98.5 The Sports Hub. Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback Scott Zolak, who will provide color analysis. The games are produced by Marc Cappello.
So, let’s quickly get to the matchups.
Patriots RBs vs.Ravens Front Seven — Edge Baltimore
The Patriots’ running game was a bright spot on Sunday, going for 246 yards on 25 carries (9.8-yard average) with TreVeyon Henderson leading the way with 146 yards on 14 carries, including touchdown runs of 52 and 65 yards.
But the Ravens’ run defense is much better than the Bills. After struggling earlier this year, they have rebounded and are allowing 111.5 yards per game, 15th in the league.
They bottled up Cincinnati’s running game last week, where the Bengals averaged only 3.4 yards per rush, with the longest run of just 10 yards by Chase Brown.
Look for the Patriots to keep the running game going, something they got away from last week in the second half, and get Henderson some chunk yardage to keep the Ravens out of their pressure packages on obvious passing downs.
Patriots WRs vs. Ravens Secondary — Edge New England
The Patriots’ passing game has been excellent this season, until the game last week, specifically the second half. The wide receivers seemed confused by the coverage, and for the first time all season, the Patriots and Drake Maye failed to throw for 200+ yards. They need to get back on track.
It isn’t going to be easy this week as the Ravens’ pass defense has turned the corner since the trade deadline with the addition of safety Alohi Gilman, who combined with Kyle Van Noy for a 95-yard pick-six. Van Noy picked off Joe Burrow and lateraled the ball to Gilman, who took it 84 yards to the house.
Gilman’s addition has allowed the Ravens’ outstanding safety Kyle Hamilton to roam all over the field. Drake Maye must be aware of his location at all times. They use him to cover tight ends and blitz.
But the Ravens have struggled to get home against quarterbacks; Maye should have time to throw this week. Getting Kayshon Boutte, Demario Douglas, and Stefon Diggs more involved is imperative. The intermediate passing game seems like the likely area to attack this defense this week.
Next up is the Ravens’ offense.
Ravens RBs vs. NE Front Seven — Edge Baltimore
The Patriots’ run defense has taken a nose dive since Week 11. Since then, they are 30th in rush EPA and 24th in rushing yardage allowed. They’ve really missed Milton Williams, who isn’t eligible to come off IR until after this game. They’ve slipped from the #1 run defense to #5, allowing 95.1 yards per game.
Last week, that loss was compounded by the injury to Robert Spillane, their best run-stuffing linebacker, who was active but didn’t play.
And after facing the Bills’ running game, they face the Ravens’ running game, which is currently 3rd in the NFL, averaging 146.2 yards per game, featuring Derek Henry and Lamar Jackson.
The Bills owned the line of scrimmage on Sunday, and the Patriots, if they want to win this game, have to do a better job of disrupting the Ravens’ running game at the point of attack. If Henry gets through the line of scrimmage without being slowed down, he will dominate the game in the fourth quarter.
Ravens WRs vs. NE Secondary — Edge New England
The Ravens run the fewest three-wide receiver packages in the league, and feature a two-tight-end grouping featuring Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. Jackson, however, hasn’t been himself lately as he’s been slowed by injuries. The Ravens are only averaging 178.4 yards per game through the air.
Jackson is at his best throwing over the middle, where the Patriots have struggled for much of the year against opposing tight ends. He’s less successful when forced to do a straight drop back (and not play action) and throwing outside the numbers.
Slot receiver Zay Flowers is having an outstanding season with 71 catches for 959 yards with two TDs, including a 28-yard score last week. He’ll be matched up with Marcus Jones in a speed-on-speed match-up.
Clogging the passing lanes in the middle of the field and slowing down the tight ends is imperative this week.
Special Teams — Edge Baltimore
The Patriots’ special teams were awful last week, so I expect them to bounce back this week. The team added Chad Muma this week, and he should immediately see play with the four core special teams units.
It would be a welcome sight for Marcus Jones to get untracked this week after last week’s game. The Ravens have two good returners in LaJohntay Wester, averaging 12.7 yards on punt returns, and Rasheen Ali and Keaton Mitchell on kick returns.
Jordan Stout has a 50.9-yard average on his punts and a 45.0 net average. In comparison, Bryce Barringer averages 47.1 and 39.7 yards, respectively.
Prediction:
The Patriots are facing adversity for the first time in the past three months after losing to the Bills on Sunday. Besides the red zone and running game defensive issues, the team has to figure out its second-half scoring woes: only 19 points scored after halftime since Week 11.
I look for Drake Maye to get back on track this week, spreading the ball around and getting everyone involved. However, with Baltimore’s running game, they’ll face a significant challenge.
The Patriots will run the best road record in the NFL to 7-0 with a last-minute win over a desperate Ravens team on Sunday night.
Patriots 27-26
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A former US Army Special Forces NCO and Officer, Steve has been following the Patriots since their days at Fenway Park. Steve has worked in the film industry and wrote as an Military Editor at SpecialOperations.com, 1945.com as a reporter for the Millbury Daily Voice, Millbury-Sutton Chronicle, and the Grafton News. He's also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)
