MORSE: Thoughts On the Patriots and NFL Free Agency
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Free Agency starts in a few days with legal tampering allowed starting March 10th at 12 noon. Teams had to designate players as Franchise tagged by 4PM on March 4th.
The Salary Cap went up significantly again and this hurts the Patriots rebuild very badly. The number for 2025 has been finalized between the league and Players Association. The final number is $279.1M. The Patriots will have $130M to spend but will not have quality players available in the Free Agency Pool because teams will be flush with new money to re-sign or franchise tag their own Free Agents.
In order to get these Free Agents to come here the Patriots will have to Overpay with crazy salary numbers. It has been documented that Foxboro is not a place where players want to come to:
With the new coaching staff under Mile Vrabel and the establishment of Drake Maye as the starting QB, these are two factors that should help attract Free Agents.
In my initial Mock Draft in January, I listed Free Agents I would sign, setting up the priority of the draft. That hasn’t changed but the availability of top tier Free Agents has. The priority must be signing proven veteran Offensive linemen. I am looking for a Left Tackle, Left Guard and a Center. It’s not that I don’t like the Offensive Linemen in the Draft, but only one of them is a plug and play player and he plays Right Tackle.
The Bengals have franchise-tagged Tee Higgins for the 2nd and last time. This takes him out of the free-agent market. Cincy is hoping a team will offer a trade in a sign-and-trade deal. I wouldn’t be surprised if Higgins is a long-term holdout if they can’t work out a trade. I am talking about holding out until mid-season, just short of the amount of games needed to fulfill a “season” of time accrued, enough so that he gets credit for the year and fulfills the 2nd Franchise tag. The Patriots have indicated they will not pursue Higgins in a trade.
Kansas City Franchise Tagged G Trey Smith. They are hoping to sign Smith to a long-term contract.
Alaric Jackson re-signed with the Rams taking the Left Tackle out of the Free Agent Pool. Once the Rams re-structured Mattew Stafford’s contract, that freed up enough money to sign Jackson.
Dallas restructured Ceedee Lamb’s contract and freed up $20M. DT Osa Odighizuwa signed a 4-year $80M contract with Dallas and avoided the Franchise Tag.
The obvious choice at Left Tackle, and most likely to sign because of the money, is Ronnie Stanley of the Ravens. Stanley is 30 years old and was ranked this past season by Pro Football Focus as the #39 Offensive Tackle. If Stanley signs, then the Patriots would have to draft a Left Tackle to replace him in a couple of years. Spotrac has Stanley’s Market Value at $20M a year for a 2-year contract. Ravens GM Eric DeCosta has been negotiating with Stanley in hopes of re-signing him, but they did not apply the Franchise tag.
Another player I like is Matt Pert a 6’7” 318 – pound Right Tackle from Denver. The UConn product had a 67.4 rating from PFF good for 41st ranking. Spotrac has his market Value at $1.8M on a 1-year contract. I think that is low given the increased amount of money available. This doesn’t solve our LT problem, but the 28-year-old is an upgrade on the right side.
Cam Robinson is the most experienced player remaining. I am not thrilled about getting Robinson as I think he is a dog. His true PFF ranking is 55th. That’s an improvement over Vederian Lowe (92) but barely enough to be a starter in the NFL. His Spotrac Market Value is $14M a year for 3 years. Given there is little competition for him, I think his market number will be much higher. Probably closer to $20M.
The backup plan at Guard is Tevin Jenkins from Chicago. The 6’6” 324-pound guard will be 27 when the season starts and had 75.4 PFF rating good for 12th amongst starting Guards. Spotrac has his market value as $10.3M for 3-years. I think that is a little low.
Drew Dalman a Center from Atlanta is just 26. David Andrews may play one more year. Jake Andrews can’t be counted on. Ben Brown gave it his all, but he was ranked as one of the worst Centers in the league. I’m also not sure if Cole Strange can play Center. Dalman finished as #12 in the league in 9 games with a 78.8 rating. Spotrac has his market value as $6.8M per year for 3-years.
Chris Godwin is a risk coming off a dislocated ankle. He was having an excellent season up to that point. I’m not sure I would spend the capital on a Free Agent coming back from injury. If he agreed to a 1-year prove it deal, that could be a possibility.
Elijah Moore is still young (24) and coming off his best season with 61 receptions. He is small at 5’91/2” and 180-pounds. His work would be as a slot receiver where the Patriots already have the underutilized Pop Douglas. Moore’s PFF Rating was 58.5 good for 124th amongst WRs. His Spotrac Market Value is a one year $4.5M contract. Well worth investigating.
In the end, I think it might be a trade for Higgins or AJ Brown. Cooper Kupp is a possibility if he gets cut by LA Rams as a cap casualty. I am not interested in Davante Adams or Keenan Allen.
I believe the Patriots will be acquiring a running back in Free Agency. The most attractive candidate is Najee Harris from Pittsburgh. Mike Vrabel likes big backs and at 6’1” 242-pounds Harris qualifies. Last season he ran for 1023 yards (4.0 YPC) and 6 TDs. He had zero fumbles. Harris is no threat in the passing game. His PFF ranking was 18th and Spotrac estimated a 3-year $9.7M a year contract should get it done.
On Defense, they need help on the Edge. I’m just not sold on Josh Sweat. He had a 70.0 PFF Rating good for 41st among Edge players in the league. That is not very good. However, everyone saw what a disruptive force he can be as evident of his play in the Super Bowl versus the KC Chiefs. Spotrac has its market value at a whopping $18.8 M per year for 3 years for Sweat. The Patriots were last in the league in rushing the passers. He had 8 sacks last season and 43 for his career. I’m a pass on Sweat.
Super Bowl winner Milton Williams wants to cash in after the big win. The Defensive End is projected to sign a 3-year, $12M per season ($36M) contract with at least two thirds of it guaranteed. The Patriots may have to increase that offer to get him to come to Foxboro. Williams has a PFF Rating of 70.1 good for 29th. The 6’ 3” 290-pound end is perfect for the new Defensive scheme. In the Super Bowl, he had 2 sacks, a Forced Fumble and a Fumble Recovery.
Another defender the Patriots have their eyes on is the Jets LB Jamien Sherwood. The 6’2”, 216-pound linebacker from Auburn racked up an incredible 156 tackles in 2024. That included 98 solo tackles. Sherwood is just 25 years old and has a PFF Rating of 72.8, good for 35th amongst the linebackers. Spotrac has his Market Value at $7.1M on a 2-year contract. I feel that is very low given how flush the teams are with new money under the cap. I could see the Patriots extending an offer that he can’t refuse to come play under Terrell Williams and Mike Vrabel.
A perfect player for the type of Defense that Terrell Williams and Mike Vrabel want to run is Zack Baun of Philadelphia. The 6’3” 225 backer is the sideline-to-sideline backer they want. He was the #1 rated LB by PFF this season with a 90.1 rating. That includes 92 Tackles. 4 sacks, and an INT. The Eagles signed the 28-year-old to a very cheap one-year contract. Spotrac has his Market Value set at $9.7M per season for a 2-year contract. The Patriots can afford to up that amount to entice him to come here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a dummy, non-guaranteed year added to boost the overall Dollar value. Players measure themselves by the Dollar value of their contracts.
Eliot Wolf never addressed the problem at Free Safety last year, either through Free Agency or Draft. The Patriots tried to fill the position with Jaylinn Hawkins, Kyle Dugger and Jon Jones. None succeeded. Jevon Holland from Miami is a 25-year-old Free Safety with experience and savvy. His PFF rating was 63, good for a 47th ranking among all safeties. His projected Market Value by Spotrac is $15.1M per year for 4 years.
Cornerback is a sneaky need for the Patriots. Jon Jones is 31 and a Free Agent. The team has been negotiating with him to bring him back to what will probably be a reduced salary. The top Free Agent is Carlton Davis from Detroit. The 6’1” 206-pound CB has a PFF Ranting of 74.,5 good for 29th in the league.
Davon Godchaux has been given permission by the Patriots to seek a trade. He has never missed a game in his 4-year career with the Patriots. This past season he had 67 tackles, second best in his career and the most since 2019 when he had 75 tackles. Godchaux has two years remaining on the contract he signed last season and carries $8.3M Cap savings in 2025. His age is working against him as he will turn 31 during the 2025 season. This is a great draft for Interior Defensive linemen which will devalue Godchaux trade market. This news makes it apparent that Godchaux’s play as a Nose Tackle, does not fit the new Defense that Defensive Coordinator Terrell Williams is installing. Rumor has it that New Orleans is interested and have offered a swap of picks with the Patriots picking up their 4th round pick (#111) for Godchaux and the Patriots 5th (#145). If Godchaux is traded, look for the patriots to sign a DT in Free Agency and select two or more in the draft.
Another player that wasn’t in the defensive plans is LB Sione Takitaki who was released last week. Takitaki had a pre-existing knee injury which kept him out of action. The knee problem surfaced back in April shortly after he signed up as a Free Agent. He was limited in Organized Team Activities and eventually required a knee scope just prior to Training Camp. He started the season on the Physically Unable to Play list. He missed 6 games to start the season and didn’t have any impact until Game 16 versus the Chargers where he had 8 tackles. He only had 21 tackles in the season.
NFL Players Association Team Survey came out last week. The lack of childcare for players with families was one of the bigger issues amongst older veteran players, but the Patriots improved that area by assigning a full time person to address their concerns. They received a C- rating. The two area where the team is lacking the most is the antiquated weight room (F-), which will be addressed when the new facility is built. The team travel also received an F- grade. The planes the Patriots own are very old, 1980’s model commercial aircraft. There is no Wi-Fi onboard, the seats are cramped, and the seats are so old they still have ashtrays in them. The Coaching staff received a B+ grade (24th) and the Strength and Conditioning staff received a B grade (26th). Robert Kraft as the owner received a D grade which ranked 29th. As I stated earlier in this article, this is a major reason why NFL players don’t want to play here.
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It’s sort of crazy that Kraft built a new stadium, malls etc a 1 Foxboro Place, yet they have an antiquated workout room/gym for the players? All about money making is my knee jerk thought. Add in the Mass taxation and that’s a problem. As well, MA/Boston has a reputation of being somewhat racist. True, false or somewhere in the middle, that doesn’t help if the perception is out there in FA land. Kraft saved this team from Robert Orthwein and moving to St Louis, and he fostered a winning championship team, but he’s got some things to solve now… Read more »