Patriots News 9-29, Players To Watch Against SF
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Good morning. Here are your Patriots news and notes for September 29. The Patriots will head to San Francisco without three players, including starting left tackle Vederian Lowe, LG Michael Jordan, and CB Alex Austin.
Among the four players listed as questionable, starting LG Sidy Sow may return this week after being injured in the preseason finale. T Caedan Wallace, LB Anfernee Jennings, and CB Jonathan Jones are also questionable.
Brock Purdy and George Kittle were removed from the injury report for the 49ers. WR Deebo Samuel and LT Trent Williams are listed as questionable.
Jacoby Brissett: The Patriots’ starting quarterback was asked about facing adversity and dealing with it. And his response was telling.
“I think over these last three days, I think for one of the more times in my career, I actually reflected on a lot of situations and times that I’ve been in my career. Only playing, not playing, different seasons of how things have gone. I think over these last couple of days, I really reflected. It puts a lot of things in perspective from a holistic viewpoint but also from a day-to-day. It was funny that I actually did reflect. I’m not BS-ing, but I actually did reflect.
“You talk about getting hit. In my first year in Indy [Indianapolis], I got hit a lot. But you still keep getting up. Just that aspect. Plays and situational parts in the game, plays that I like and plays that I don’t like. You go to watch plays that played off a certain play. The league is kind of in a cycle, you know what I mean? These plays were working 25 years ago; we were all running the same plays. Just being able to look back on certain plays and certain situations as far as situational football and seasons of NFL life, just stuff like that.”
George Kittle: This week, the 49ers’ outstanding tight end was asked about facing the Patriots’ defense and what stands out to him.
“I think they’re incredibly sound in what they do,” he said. “You just watch the tape, and they do the same thing every single time, they’re incredibly well-coached… They give you a whole bunch of funky looks, maybe not as much as Minnesota, but they do a lot of similar stuff and try to confuse you.
“They play with three safeties a lot, and those guys are all pretty damned good,” he added. “They have a new coach with a really fun vibe over there.”
Rhamondre Stevenson: The Patriots’ top running back has been facing stacked boxes with eight or more men lined up for all three games this season. Stevenson has faced stacked boxes on 27 percent of his runs thus far, the seventh most in the NFL.
However, as Phil Perry of NBC Sports Boston wrote earlier this week, San Francisco may not decide to face him this way. According to Next Gen Stats, the 49ers allow 5.5 yards per carry and a 69 percent success rate (second-highest in the league) when they have eight or more defenders in the box. Things that make you go, hmm.
Patriots 4th & 2 Podcast: This week, Derek Havens and I wrapped up the Jets game, broke down the matchup with the 49ers, and gave our predictions for the game and the Monday Night games. Please check it out.
Russ Francis/Chuck Fairbanks: The former Patriot tight end and head coach should be in the Patriots team Hall of Fame, and the fact that Francis isn’t in is an absolute travesty. Francis and the Raiders’ Dave Casper changed how teams used the tight end position. This will be discussed in our Sunday posts until it happens. Casper is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Francis’ numbers stand up well against Casper’s, yet he isn’t even in the team’s HOF.
The Patriots have a very tough task this afternoon against the 49ers. They must slow down a potent offense that is starting to get healthy. TE George Kittle will return this week, and Deebo Samuel may do so as well.
The Niners’ defense also presents some issues against a Patriots’ offense that is currently 31st in points scored and dead last in yards. The Patriots must be able to run the ball to have any chance of sparking an upset.
But let’s not forget that the Niners are 1-2, as is New England. They’ve also made their share of mistakes. They’re not unbeatable, but they have a much better team on paper. But the games are played on the field. So there is always a chance.
Here are our Patriots Players to Watch this afternoon if the Patriots are to win today.
Hunter Henry: The passing game has been pretty pathetic through the first three games. And the offensive line has to hold up much better. But Henry is a matchup against LB De’Vondre Campbell, and that is one they can win.
Campbell has been filling in for Dre Greenlaw and, thus far, has been a liability in coverage. Campbell has allowed 14 receptions on 16 targets for 149 yards and one touchdown. He was also called for a 25-yard pass-interference penalty that put the Rams into position for the game-winning field goal last week.
Matching Henry on Campbell while attacking the seam should be a win for Henry. The passing game doesn’t have to be prolific, just okay enough to keep the chains moving and support the running game. More below.
Inside Linebackers: With Ja’Whaun Bentley out, Jahlani Tavai and Raekwon McMillan struggled against the Jets. But this week, against a 49ers team that is athletic and calls the outside zone stretch runs, they’ll need the speed and athleticism to cover these without overcommitting and be liable to cut back runs.
It won’t be an easy task. Even without Christian McCaffery, Jordan Mason has rushed for 324 yards in the first three games. Getting him going puts the Niners in third and manageable situations. The Patriots defense has to stop that. While the entire front seven will be involved, the off-the-ball backers must be on top of their game.
Demario Douglas: The Patriots’ diminutive but speedy wide receiver should continue to see an uptick in his usage. Granted, most of his yardage last week came later in the game, but it was good that the team is finally getting him involved.
He has that quickness off the line that allows him to get open quickly. He can also work the short crossers and quick slants that will allow Jacoby Brissett to get him the ball quickly.
Christian Gonzalez: The Patriots’ second-year cornerback has been used differently than the team’s top corners of the past. Gonzalez has matched up with opponents’ top wide receiver in his short, seven-game career. In the past, they would leave their top corner on an island against a team’s #2 wide receiver and double that team’s #1.
So, who will he cover this week? Based on his usage so far, that would be Brandon Aiyuk. But that would leave smaller corners, Jon Jones (5’9) and Marcus Jones (5’8) to cover Jauan Jennings (6’3). Jennings tore up the Rams last week (11 catches, 175 yards TD). I imagine the team will elevate CB Isaiah Bolden from the PS this week, especially with Alex Austin out.
I think the Patriots will opt for a Gonzalez – Jennings matchup and roll with one of the Jones on Aiyuk, who has been off to a slow start this season. However, if Deebo Samuel is active this week, that could change everything.
The Offensive Line: Besides struggling mightily in the season’s first three weeks, the Patriots offensive line is now banged up. Vederian Lowe, the team’s starting left tackle, and LG Michael Jordan have been ruled out. Caedan Wallace was banged up last week but may play today.
The good news is that Sidy Sow has been practicing this week and could make his return to the starting lineup at left guard. If Sow can start today, it will mark the fourth starting OL combination this season.
Regardless of who plays where, the OL has to be much better than it has been this season. Brissett has been hammered, which prevents him from working through his progressions.
The calls that the Buffalo Bills would fall backward this year have been premature. The Bills are off to a 3-0 start, and Josh Allen has been absolutely on fire. Allen has been completing 75 percent of his throws, has seven touchdown passes no interceptions, and leads the NFL with a 133.7 passer rating. He also has rushed for two touchdowns.
Buffalo faces the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football. The Ravens are currently 1-2 and don’t want to fall far from the AFC leaders, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Kansas City, who are all 3-0. The Ravens nearly blew a 22-point lead in Dallas last week before holding on for the win. It has been surprising, to say the least, that Justin Tucker has missed field goals in three straight games.
Last week, Baltimore rode a 274-yard running game, spearheaded by Derrick Henry’s 151-yard performance. They’ll try to pound the ball against a banged-up Bills’ defense in the middle.
**One stat of note:* The Ravens, under John Harbaugh, are 20-3 in primetime games. This should be a fun game to watch.
The Miami Dolphins have another quarterback issue. First, Tua Tagoviola was injured again with a concussion. His replacement, Skylar Thompson, was ineffective and injured himself last week. Tim Boyle was brought in, and he, too, was ineffective.
With Thompson limited this week in practice, it looks like Miami will start Tyler Huntley against the Titans. Huntley was plucked off the Ravens’ practice squad two weeks ago and hasn’t fully learned the Dolphins’ complicated offensive schemes. However, look for Mike McDaniel to simplify things and attempt to establish the running game, where Huntley is also effective.
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Week 4 Predictions:
Thursday Night Football:
Dallas over NYG 1-0
Sunday, September 29:
Atlanta over New Orleans
Green Bay over Minnesota
Chicago over LA Rams
Pittsburgh over Indianapolis
NYJ over Denver
Philadelphia over Tampa Bay
Cincinnati over Carolina
Houston over Jacksonville
Washington over Arizona
Cleveland over Las Vegas
San Francisco over New England
Kansas City over LA Chargers
Sunday Night Football:
Baltimore over Buffalo
Monday Night Football:
Tennessee over Miami
Detroit over Seattle
Last week: 9—7
2024 Season 30—18
2023 Season 178—94
2022 Season: 178—92—2
2021 Season: 183—88—1
2020 Season: 169—86—1
2019 Season: 162—93—1
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“For the Niners, which you really don’t see a lot of 21-personnel teams, but they have an outstanding fullback. I would say it’s more about bodies with this team more than space.
“So, everyone’s in there tight, but now they start to move the bodies. Going back to the matching troops for troops, you have to match those troops. So, even on the post-snap stuff, that’s why you build it over here, now everyone’s moving. But if they pull a guy back here post-snap, they’ve added now an extra person. I mean, it’s a lot. We should watch film. We’ll watch film.”
Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo after he was asked about the 49ers’ use of motion on nearly every play and how to combat it.
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“Talent sets the floor; Character sets the ceiling.” Bill Belichick
Follow me on Twitter @SteveB7SFG or email me at [email protected]
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Seems right… the path for a pats win is to bend & don’t break on D and make SF kick 3-4 field goals and maybe give 1 TD. Purdy will get his 280 yds most likely. On Offense,as everyone said, the Pats have to run the ball. True. SF does have some softness in the D front 7 right now and so it’s possible. The problem is the pats need 150+ yds. Pats will conversely need to score TDs if/when they enter the red-zone. Being +1 or better on turnovers would help the cause. SF is not good on special… Read more »