Patriots – 49ers Key Matchups Week 4, 2024: Tough Matchup
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The Patriots travel to San Francisco this week to take on the 49ers. This is the second in back-to-back road games for the team.
This is a big game for both teams as they each enter at 1-2 and want to even their record at .500. It is surprising to see a very good Niners team enter at 1-2 as they are one of the favorites to once again represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
The Niners will be looking for a “get-right” game after blowing a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter against the Rams. They’ve been hit hard by injuries on offense and defense. Injuries also beset the Patriots. But the good news is possibly around the corner. Kendrick Bourne, Sionne Takitaki, Sidy Sow, and Marte Mapu could be back next week.
FOX will broadcast this week’s game, which can be seen locally in Boston on WFXT-TV Channel 25. Joe Davis will handle play-by-play duties, with Greg Olsen as the color analyst. Pam Oliver will work from the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots flagship radio station, 98.5 The Sports Hub, with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Capello.
We at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2024 to analyze some of the game’s key matchups and what to expect in the game’s outcome.
So now we can look at some key matchups and who holds the Razor’s Edge. First up is the Patriots offense:
The Patriots’ running game was put on a back burner last week as they tried to open up the passing game. Seven of the first nine plays were passes. This played right into the Jets defense’s strength. This week they need to get back to their own strength and run the football and try to control the tempo and the clock. Thus keeping SF’s potent offense on the bench.
Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson have been an excellent 1-2 punch on the ground. The Patriots are averaging 144.3 yards per game on the ground good for eighth in the league.
San Francisco lost Jason Hargrave for the season, which is a big blow to their defense, but Fred Warner, one of the best linebackers in the league, mans the middle. Look for the Niners to stack the box and daring the Patriots to throw. If you’re looking for a silver lining, the Niners allow 4.5 yards per rush. The Patriots get a slight advantage here, but only slightly. They’ll have to be much better than a week ago.
The Patriots’ passing game is locked into last place in the passing game averaging only 102 yards per game, or a good first quarter for Brock Purdy. And while Jacoby Brissett and the receivers aren’t blameless, most of this falls on the poor play of the offensive line. Brissett was under pressure in less than two seconds several times last week.
He needs more time to go through his progressions. The Jets sacked Patriots QBs seven times and had 15 quarterback hits in the loss last week. That cannot continue. With so many new players playing together for the first few games, the communication between the linemen hasn’t been good enough, and free rushers have been too prevalent.
The Niners pass rush hasn’t been up to their usual par yet, but Warner, Nick Bosa, and company may be looking at the game this week as a way to get back on track. Until the OL of the Patriots solidifies at least a bit, they won’t have the advantage against anyone, let alone this SF unit. One notable factor was that they got Demario Douglas more involved last week.
Next up, the 49ers offense:
The Niners’ running game opens up everything in their offense. It is so versatile and schemed that it opens up the passing game through RPOs and misdirection. Even without Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, they’ve plugged in Jordan Mason, another diamond in the rough found by the scouts.
Mason has rushed for 324 yards in three games and has been terrific, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. The Niners have an outstanding offensive line, which opens up big plays in the passing game, which is what the Patriots are aiming to do themselves.
Davon Godchaux has been very good for the Patriots, but they miss Christian Barmore and Ja’Whaun Bentley in the middle of the defense. Raekwon McMillan, who replaced Bentley, and Jahlani Tavai will be counted on to stem the tide on the inside.
The Patriots’ run defense is currently fifth in yards per game (83) and yards per rush (3.7), but this will be their toughest test of the year.
The Niners’ passing game was without Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle last week, but they still scored 24 points against the Rams, although they lost in overtime. It is unknown if Kittle will be back this week, But they still have Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings, who had 175 yards receiving last week. If Kittle returns, he’ll be a tough matchup for the Patriots secondary. Brock Purdy has been excellent again this season, but the Niners’ offensive line has had some protection issues of their own.
Other than Keion White, the Patriots pass rush hasn’t been effective enough thus far this year. Last week they failed to keep Aaron Rodgers in the pocket by not setting the edge properly and maintaining rush lane integrity. When Rodgers broke containment he was 5-5 for 62 yards and a touchdown. He also scrambled for 18 yards.
The Patriots’ secondary hasn’t lived up to expectations in the past two games. They’ve allowed over 600 yards against Seattle and the Jets, which puts them in 28th place in the league, allowing 244.3 yards per game. And going against a San Francisco unit that is #2 in passing in the NFL is not a good matchup to face on the road.
I would expect Christian Gonzalez to matchup up with Aiyuk this week, but if Kittle plays, they’ll have to plan on doubling him. Which leaves Jennings and a tough matchup for Jonathan Jones, just from a height advantage.
The Patriots’ special teams have improved a lot in 2024. Bryce Barringer could be an All-Pro, averaging 52.3 yards per punt with nine punts inside the 20 and one touchback in 16 punts. Joey Slye has been much steadier than a year ago in the kicking department. His only miss was a blocked kick due to a mistake in the blocking scheme.
Marcus Jones is back and seems close to breaking a punt return. The coverage units led by Brandon Schooler have been good.
San Francisco has kicker Jake Moody, whose only miss was a big one, a 55-yarder against the Rams that could have won the game. Mitch Wisnowsky has been terrific, with a 49.4-yard average on his punts. Their return game hasn’t done much yet.
The Patriots face a tough matchup this week against a 1-2 team far better than their record indicates. However, San Francisco is 1-2 because the games are played on the field, not on paper.
That said, New England will have to play flawless football for 60 minutes and hope for a key turnover or two if it wants to pull off a huge upset.
Get Back To The Running Game And Set the Tempo —
Look for the Patriots to use six offensive linemen and pound the ball up the middle. Smash mouth is their only chance at controlling the clock tempo and opening up play-action. Brissett can’t miss any opportunities he may have at getting some chunk plays to Douglas and tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper.
Slow Down the 49ers Running Game —
SF’s potent offense stems from the Niners’ running game. Everything they do and do well is a product of a very versatile running game. Kyle Shanahan calls a fantastic game, and the defense will have to set the edge, take away the chunk running plays, and keep Purdy in the pocket. Otherwise, it will be a long afternoon.
Win Third Down —
Last week, the Patriots offense was just 2-11 on third down. That isn’t going to win many football games. They must convert these and keep drives going while keeping Purdy and the Niners’ offense on the bench.
Defensively, they have to keep Purdy in the pocket and stop Shanahan’s offense from converting third downs, especially those huge plays they’re known for.
___________
The Patriots face a bad matchup this week against a team I had hoped would be 3-0 this week and perhaps be caught looking past them. But the 49ers are not looking past the Patriots when they’re 1-2.
I think the defense “should” have a better week, looking more energized than the defense that looked flat and lethargic last week. Will it be enough? Jerod Mayo will be under the microscope this week. Can he reinvigorate his team after a disastrous performance in New Jersey?
San Francisco is the better team and should win this game, but how the Patriots play will speak to their current state. They’ll hang tough, but they don’t have the offensive firepower they’ll need to win this one on the road.
San Francisco 27-13
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Good article. I read that the 49ers have some issues on top of the obvious injuries to Deebo Samual, Hargrave etc. Their secondary is having some coverage issue on vertical routes and overall lacks speed. Couple guys getting torched. Their D front is a bit light and they’ve been run on a bit. Their special teams have not played well. The 49ers have run the ball but thier o-line has struggled more than thought and their WRs are not getting separation. Aiyuk is not getting any separation and the thought was he sat out the offseason, plus the summer and… Read more »
Their OL has struggled in pass protection somewhat, but they’ve run the ball well, considering McCaffery and Samuel haven’t been there.
I have seen the comments that the secondary has given up some deep passes, but the Patriots have had issues. The OL can’t hold up for Brissett to throw the short/intermediate ones. We’ll see how it plays out.