MORSE: Week 16 Patriots Preview – Denver Broncos
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Playing a game with Denver Broncos at Mile High Stadium is difficult for all teams in the NFL because of the altitude. Players tend to peter out at the end of games because they have trouble breathing. Surprisingly the Patriots have had a winning record (7-5) in the Brady era in Denver. It’s not as much of a nightmare for the Patriots as I thought. I have been to a game in Denver and that light air is a real thing that a few days stay doesn’t overcome.
| OFFENSE 3WR 1TE | ||||
| STARTER | 2ND | 3RD | 4TH | |
| QB | Russell Wilson | Jarrett Stidham | – | – |
| RB | Javonte Williams | Samaje Perine | Jaleel McLaughlin | Dwayne Washington |
| WR | Courtland Sutton | Marvin Mims | Jalen Virgil IR | – |
| WR | Jerry Jeudy | Brandon Johnson | ||
| WR | Lil’ Jordan Humphrey | Tim Patrick IR | – | – |
| TE | Adam Trautman | Lucas Krull | Chris Manhertz | Nate Adkins |
| FB | Michael Burton | – | – | – |
| LT | Garett Bolles | Cam Fleming | – | – |
| LG | Ben Powers | Quinn Bailey | ||
| C | Lloyd Cushenberry | Luke Wattenberg | Alex Forsyth | – |
| RG | Quinn Meinerz | Luke Wattenberg | Quinn Bailey | |
| RT | Mike McGlinchey | Cam Fleming | Alex Palczewski IR | |
What is a good coach worth in the NFL? The Broncos gave the New Orleans Saints a 1st round pick in 2023 (#29) and a 2nd Round Pick (currently #46) in 2024 for Sean Payton. That is a steep price to pay and sets the bar for any type of potential move for Bill Belichick. Denver comes into Week 16 with a 7-7 record and are in the hunt for a playoff spot despite playing in the very tough AFC West Division. You get what you pay for.
Russell Wilson has had a resurgence. He is ranked 18th by Pro Football Reference for QB Passing yards (2832) but is tied for 9th in completion percentage (66.3%). He has 24 TDs and 8 INTs. Old friend Jarrett Stidham is the backup. Wish we still had him!
The Wide Receiver corps features Jerry Jeudy and Cortland Sutton. Both are frequently heard to be on the trading block. Sutton is a 2018 2nd Round (#40) pick out of SMU. He leads the team in receptions with 58 on 85 targets for 770 yards (13.3 Avg), and 10 TDs. Sutton is a big receiver at 6’4” 216lbs. In 2019 Sutton was selected to the Pro Bowl. Jeudy at 6’ 1” 193 lbs isn’t small either. The 2020 1st round (#15) out of Alabama has 45 catches on 70 targets for 581 yards (12.9 avg) and just one TD. A player I liked in this year’s draft was Marvin Mims. The Oklahoma rookie 2nd Round (#63) pick has 18 receptions on 28 targets for 298 yards (16.6 avg) and one TD. I couldn’t believe what I saw when the ESPN Depth Chart came out. It has former Patriot’s Practice Squad player Lil’Jordan Humphrey listed as the #3 WR ahead of Mims. Humphrey is more like a TE than WR. He has 11 catches on 14 targets for 93 yards and 2 TDs. When he was with the Patriots’ he was a big Red Zone target. The 6’4” 225 lb receiver out of Texas was a 2109 Undrafted Free Agent. For his career he has 5 TDs on his 29 receptions.
At running back, the Broncos have Javonte Williams as the lead back with Samaje Perine as the backup and third down receiving back. In recent weeks, Perine is getting more touches and a higher yards per carry average. Last week Perine averaged 6.2 yards per carry as opposed to Williams 2.3 ypc. Williams was drafted in 2021 in the 2nd round (#35) out of North Carolina. This season Williams has run 182 times for 677yards (3.7 avg) and 1 TD. Given the Patriots stingy run defense this year (currently 2nd best per Pro Football Database in Yards Per Game), it would appear to be difficult for Williams to find any running room. Perine is a nice change of pace running back. He helped Cincinnati on their Playoff run last year backing up Joe Mixon and as a third down back. For Denver he has 45 carries for 219 yards and a 4.9 avg but just one TD. His value is as a receiver. In that capacity he is an extremely reliable pass catcher with 41 receptions on 45 targets, 389 yards and 9.5 YPC but 0 TDs. He was a 2017 4th round (#114) selection for Washington out of Oklahoma and the 7 year veteran is valued member of the offense. Jaleel McLaughlin is also having a good year with 58 carries for 323 yards (5.6 YPC) and 1 TD.
At Tight End the Broncos have 4 players listed. Adam Trautman is the #1 TE in the absence of Greg Dulcich who is out for the year with hamstring problems. This is a lingering injury going back to last year and he has had 4 injuries to his hamstring muscles. Trautman has 20 catches on 32 targets, for 174 yards (8.7 YPC) and 3 TDs. Lucas Krull, Chris Manertz and Nate Adkins are the other three. None of the three have had a significant positive impact.
On the Offensive line Denver has one of my favorite players, OG Quinn “Gut” Meinerz. If you have read my off-season player profiles leading up the draft, you know how glowing my reports on this D III sensation was. Meinerz received an invitation to the Senior Bowl despite not having a season in 2020 due to COVID. The two-time D III All-American played for Wisconsion-Whitewater. All he did at the Senior Bowl practices was dominate every D-lineman he lined up against. The scouts wanted to see if he could play Center, a position he had never played in college. Meinerz self-taught himself how to play Center and shotgun snap. I had a big disagreement with Evan Lazar of Patriots.com about Meinerz, whom he claimed could only play Center. The Patriots should have drafted him, and he would have solved their problems at Right Guard with the departure of Ted Karras. Meinerz was a 2021 3rd round (#98) pick that ended up as the Broncos starter before his rookie season ended. He has been in the lineup ever since and is rated at the #2 rated Guard in the league by PFF. Left Tackle has Garrett Boles, a 2017 1st round (#20) pick from Utah. He played two years of football at Snow College, a junior college in Utah before playing just 1 year at Utah. Bolles is an older player because of his LDS Mission. He is now 31 and was named 2nd team All-Pro in 2020. Left Guard has another good player in Ben Powers. A Baltimore Ravens 2019 4th round (#123) pick out of Oklahoma, Powers signed on as a Free Agent this year with Denver. He is a big Guard at 6’ 4” 338 lbs., and ranked #38 by Pro Football Focus, as compared to Cole Strange at # 28. At Center is veteran Lloyd Cushenberry. The LSU alum was drafted in 2020 by Denver in the 3rd round (#83). At 6’4” 315 lbs he is a big Center. PFF ranks him as #9 as compared to David Andrews at #11. Cushenberry is a pending Free Agent in 2024. His projected contract would be 4 years and $47M with $34 M guaranteed. Over his career, he started as a rookie in the opening game and missed 9 games last year. Right Tackle is Mike McGlinchey the former 1st Round (#9) pick out of Notre Dame. The monstrous McGlinchey is 6’ 8” and 315 lbs. PFF has him ranked 44th among Tackles. Mike Owenu is #34 and Trent Brown is 6th.
| DEFENSE Base 3-4 D | ||||
| STARTER | 2ND | 3RD | 4TH | |
| LDE | Jonathan Harris | Matt Henningsen | – | – |
| NT | D.J. Jones | Mike Purcell | Eyioma Uwazurike SUSP | |
| RDE | Zach Allen | Elijah Garcia | – | |
| WLB | Nik Bonitto Q | Thomas Incoom | ||
| LILB | Alex Singleton | Justin Strnad | Jonas Griffith IR | – |
| RILB | Josey Jewell | Drew Sanders | Ben Niemann | – |
| SLB | Baron Browning | Jonathon Cooper | – | – |
| LCB | Pat Surtain II | Damarri Mathis | Tremon Smith | K’Waun Williams IR |
| SS | Kareem Jackson | P.J. Locke | JL Skinner | |
| FS | Justin Simmons | Delarrin Turner-Yell | Caden Sterns IR | |
| RCB | Fabian Moreau | Ja’Quan McMillian | Riley Moss | |
Denver’s rush Defense is dead last in the league. Their Pass Defense is only mediocre at #16. I have no idea how Denver is 7-7 and still in the hunt for a playoff spot?
Jonathan Harris manning the LDE position. In a 3-4 defense, Harris is listed as a DT and has 43 tackles on the season. Harris came into the league as an Undrafted Free Agent by the Chicago Bears in 2019. He is 6’5” and weighs 295 lbs. Physically he is comparable to Detrich Wise. Nose Tackle is DJ Jones was a 2017 6th Round (#198) selection by San Francisco. He played his college ball at Ole Miss. At only 6’ and 305 lbs. the stout NT can be moved easily. He has 34 tackles this season. Right Defensive Zach Allen leads the DL with 5 sacks. He has added 49 tackles. The former Boston College Eagle was a 2019 3rd round (#65) selection by Denver.
The linebackers are always a strength of a 3-4 defense. Nick Bonitto leads the backers in sacks with 7. He is listed as Questionable for Sunday’s contest. If he can’t go Thomas Incoom may take his place. The top three tacklers on the defense are linebackers. Alex Singleton leads the team with an incredible 141 tackles. His is a great story, Undrafted out of Montana State in 2015 he was originally signed by Seattle by waived before the start of the season. The Patriots signed him to the Practice Squad only to release him 10 days later (mistake). In 2016 he was drafted in the 1st round (#6) by Calgary Stampeders in the Canadian Football League, and he went on to win the Defensive MVP, Best Canadian Player, and Most Outstanding Player awards for his 2017 season. He followed that up by winning the awards again in 2018. The Philadelphia Eagles came calling and he played three years for them. In 2022 he signed on with Denver and has exploded this season. Josey Jewell is second on the team with 87 tackles. He was drafted by Denver in the 2018 draft, 4th Round (#106) out of Iowa. He will be a Free Agent after this season. Jonathan Cooper is third on the team in tackles with 65 and 6.5 sacks. He is listed as the backup, but obviously he is seeing a lot of playing time, especially on third down. In the 2021 draft he was taken in the 7th Round (#239) by Denver. He played his college ball at Ohio State. Baron Browning is the starter and had chipped in with 21 tackles and 3.5 sacks. He was also taken in the 2021 draft by Denver, 3rd round (#105) and is another Ohio State grad. They have a good young group of linebackers.
The secondary features Pat Surtain II at LCB. He has 10 Pass Breakups this year to go along with 53 tackles (5th on the team). Denver selected him in the 1st Round (#9) of the 2021 draft. The Alabama alum was an All-Pro and Pro Bowl selection last season. He is ranked 38th by PFF but he is a player opponents need to be aware of. Free Safety Justin Simmons out of Boston College was a 2016 3rd round (#98) pick. He is fourth on the team with 56 tackles, 8 Pass Breakups and 3 INTs. Simmons is ranked 54th by PFF. I think both Simmons and Surtain are ranked much lower than they should be. SS Kareem Jackson is ranked 39th by PFF. Jackson is coming off a suspension for lowering his head to hit a defenseless receiver. PJ Locke has been playing well in his stead and Hed Coach Sean Payton has not determined if Jackson will start ahead of Locke. Jackson was a 2010 1st Round pick (#20) out of Alabama. Jackson is 35 and old for an NFL Safety. Fabian Moreau a tough corner out of UCLA is the on the other side. He is very fast (4.35 40) and has good makeup speed if he does get beat. His 6.94 3-cone drill indicated he is good at changing direction.
| Special Teams | – | |||
| STARTER | 2ND | 3RD | 4TH | |
| PK | Wil Lutz | – | – | – |
| P | Riley Dixon | – | – | – |
| H | Riley Dixon | – | – | – |
| PR | Marvin Mims | Tremon Smith | – | – |
| KR | Marvin Mims | Jaleel McLaughlin | ||
| LS | Mitchell Fraboni | – | – |
Placekicker Wil Lutz is one of the best kickers in the league. He ranks #9 overall and has scored 106 points. Lutz is very consistent, having made 25 of 27 Extra Points and 27 of 29 Field Goals. One of his misses was beyond 5o yards.
Punter Riley Dixon is 11th on the league and benefits from the thin air in Denver. I am interested in seeing what Bryce Baringer will do kicking at altitude. Baringer has set a team record by kicking at least one punt for over 50 yards in 14 straight games. He is ranked #3 in the league and might be on his way to a Pro Bowl selection.
Kick Returner Marvin Mims is ranked 25th in the league. He does have a 99-yard kickoff return to his credit. If he hadn’t made that return, his overall numbers would have been much worse.
Mitchell Fraboni handles the long snapping. If you don’t know his name or see him highlighted on TV, then he is probably doing a good job!
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