Prediction:
This one should be an instant classic of a Super Bowl matching the two most explosive offenses in the league and two of the most balanced. Here are our keys, from a Patriots perspective for a victory.
Slow Down the Atlanta Running Backs: The Patriots (as we mentioned above), have to slow down the Falcons’ RBs in both the passing game and the running game if they want to take home trophy #5.
Pat Chung as a “big nickel” linebacker will be a key here. Look for them to dust off the Super Bowl XXXVI game plan against Marshall Faulk. Every time a running back goes to the line, they’ll have to hit them and hard and disrupt the flow and rhythm of the passing game. As big a target as Jones is, this offense moves the ball thru the backs who have 2482 yards and 24 TDs between them.
Win the Red Zone Battles: Atlanta’s offense was excellent in the red zone this season tied with the Patriots at 63%. Their defense, however, was another story. Atlanta allowed opponents to score at a 72% clip while the Patriots had the 8th best Red Zone defense allowing just 50 percent of scores coming from inside the 20.
With two excellent offenses, this one may come down to who gets a stop or two inside the red zone. Both teams will move the ball, yards aren’t as important as points this week.
Stay Balanced on Offense, Spread ‘em and Shred ‘em: The backs will be key for the Patriots offense this week. Dion Lewis, LeGarrette Blount, and James White will have to run the ball effectively between the tackles and catch the ball out of the backfield.
With the Patriots spreading them out, they have a lot of weapons for the young Falcons defense to cover. Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell on the outside must beat single coverage, if Atlanta decides to play zone, Brady will eviscerate them. Look for another trick play or two this week, either a flea flicker or the double pass.
YAC Most Important for NE This Week: The Patriots passing game thrives on YAC, with 53 percent of their passing yardage coming after the catch, 3rd best in the NFL. YAC is the Achilles Heel of Atlanta’s defense. They’re last in the NFL in allowing YAC with 133 yards per game coming after the catch. Here is where the game should turn and favor New England. Get the short, intermediate throws and make them pay by turning those into solid, big gains.
This one should be worthy of the name, Super Bowl. But in the end, the Patriots have the better balance between offensive and defense and take home Lombardi Trophy #5. Experience in the big game will play out, Brady and Belichick have been here before and their defense will make just enough stops to take home the win.
Cue up the duck boats. Patriots 33-24
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A former US Army Special Forces NCO and Officer, Steve has been following the Patriots since their days at Fenway Park. Steve has worked in the film industry and wrote as an Military Editor at SpecialOperations.com, 1945.com as a reporter for the Millbury Daily Voice, Millbury-Sutton Chronicle, and the Grafton News. He's also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)
