Why the hell did we not try harder to keep TB12?

[Tony2046]

The "Brady's choice"...is that based on a NFL network/ESPN comment? where you getting this? I am going to guess that Sanu was more of a Steve Belichick thing. The extent of Brady's involvement (IMO) was him being asked "what do you think about Sanu" to which he answer "sure, we need a possession receiver"

adding a reference: Mohamed Sanu Came To Patriots With Ringing Endorsement From Steve Belichick - NESN.com

Yes that was based off of what I heard at the time. I wasn't aware of the other angle so thanks for the link.

 

[skinnydog]

The trade for Diggs just happened this year, they traded for Cooks years ago when they were going all in. Funny how we have a lot of people saying this didn’t happen then let their total ignorance about the cap slip.

Then they traded Cooks when it came to be the Pats turn to pay him. And yes, the pats could have traded for Diggs instead of the Bills.

 

[catent]

Great post.

6. For whatever reason, and I don't care what the reason was, their relationship soured. They got divorced.

I think this is a really overlooked aspect of it, and it becomes more important when they both realize they’re probably not championship contenders any time soon. 20 years...Jesus. These types of partnerships are not supposed to last that long in professional sports. Neither of them have to be blamed for the way it ended.

Though I would add: if there’s an unsalvageable relationship problem between the two, then the owner must choose which one to continue with. The idea that Bill would be there “many years” and that it isn’t even a debate because Brady of Brady’s age/abilities...seems pretty foolish right now. Bill is 68. Total rebuild? He’ll likely be 70 before even getting a chance to do what Brady is doing now, which is contending for a championship. And that’s not guaranteed.

Let’s be honest...Kraft surely loves Brady and wanted to keep him, but he‘s also bought into the idea that it’s somewhat of a 1/3 Brady, 1/3 Belichick, 1/3 Kraft himself success pie that the media has parroted. Maybe not that extreme, but the idea that The Patriot Way is an organizational thing that can outsmart and outdo the entire league. I really got the sense Kraft felt that Brady was acting desperate and that Brady’s end was imminent...and that Brady should retire to save his legacy. Just my hunch. If that’s the case, this has to be a totally unexpected kick to the balls in how its playing out in reverse.

A couple thoughts on this:

1.) I don't think the relationship soured so much as Belichick simply wasn't willing to commit to a longer-term deal and Brady ultimately decided to call his bluff and move on. The Guerrero stuff likely played a role but I'm not sure that was anything irreconcilable.

2.) Your second main paragraph hinges on the idea that there was an irreconcilable breakup and that Kraft would've had to pick one or the other, and I'm not sure I agree with that binary decision, but let's suppose it's true.

The Patriots don't have a competitive roster due to their proverbial 'kicking the can down the road' to extend Brady's window. Whether or not they had Brady this most recent season doesn't change that much, as last year (2019) demonstrated. This team won 7 games this season, and I doubt they win more than 10 if they had Brady. A potential Wild-Card team, but not much more than that. Even had Kraft erred on the side of Brady, the outcome of this season is no different. The final window would be the next 2-3 years, where the Pats now have cap space. That's basically it, and once that window passed, the team would be without both Brady and Belichick. Is that really what Kraft wants?

Rather (again, sticking with this binary, Brady OR Belichick dichotomy, which I don't buy into ... but for the sake of argument), Kraft chose Belichick, who not only sits in a position able to capitalize over the next 2-3 years with the existing cap space, but some time beyond that.

Belichick is 68 right now - I don't see him lasting much longer than 77-78 ... 80 is certainly the cutoff. Given his love for the game, the fact that he's coaching with his son, and the opportunity in front of him, I expect he'll err on the older side of that window and make it to 77-78 before he finally pulls the plug for good (depending on his health, of course). Maybe I'm overestimating him, but that feels right to me. So another decade of Belichick, potentially. Hard to call that a bad outcome for Kraft and Patriots' fans in general. Even should Belichick make it to 75, which may be a bit more realistic, that's another 6-7 seasons of Belichick, again, an outcome I would consider good for Kraft and anyone interested in the success of the Patriots.

 

[skinnydog]

Spending to the cap is not going all in.

Exactly. LOOK: NFLPA salary cap chart shows Patriots are money smart, Eagles aren't

over the time period in the article the Pats were near the bottom of the league in terms of actual cash spent. I doubt things changed Since then.

 

[Wozzy]

Spending to the cap is not going all in.

Let's examine spending to the cap with one example since you people keep conflating a paycheck with cap debt.

"Pay" and "cap" are two different things.

In 2018 the Patriots reworked Stephon Gilmore's deal, paying him more of his owed salary upfront but kicking some of his salary cap money down the road so they could sign other players at the trade deadline. If they had available space to work with they simply would have signed said players, they didn't.

2018




In 2019 the Patriots did the same thing, reworked Gilmore's deal and pushed more salary cap down the road so they could sign players at the trade deadline. Salary cap owed doesn't disappear until it's paid, it accumulates and snowballs. If they had available space to work with they simply would have signed said players, they didn't.

2019




In 2020 the Patriots had to move half of Gilmore's 2021 salary into 2020 just to keep him happy and because he did them a favor twice, he wasn't about to play for 7 million dollars after winning DPOY nor should he. Stephon's 2020 cap hit is huge at $28,341,668 while his salary is only $15,500,000. His cap hit if he plays in 2021 is large at $17,170,834 especially since he is only owed the remainder of his salary at $7,500,000... which he absolutely won't play for even if he is coming off injury, nor should he.

Gilmore's cap hit in 2020 and 2021 is bloated as a result of kicking the salary cap can down the road. They did this to provide deep teams from 2014-2019 for Brady. I get that you people only see "weapons" and nothing else, but having the best defense, special teams and O-Line is why they were as good as they were. They kicked the salary cap can down the road on Brady's contract every year going back to 2014, they did it for Gronk, they did it for Gilmore, they did it for Cannon when they had to wedge Sanu on the roster and did it with numerous other players.

They have a bunch of dead cap on their books that needs to be cleared off and it's not just the result of signing one or two bad deals, but a result of five straight years of pushing salary cap debt into the future so they could sign other players and create competitive rosters. Most of you people including many media members saying Bill is "making excuses" are clueless.

BB has an economics degree from Wesleyan and Kraft is a billionaire who settled the NFL labor dispute... I'm pretty sure they know what they're doing. But maybe I'm wrong and the jokers here who don't know the difference between "cap," "salary" and "dead cap" have it all figured out. Or the media who are taking this opportunity to dance on BB's grave for being mean to them all these years... laughable.

 

[patsinthesnow]

1st round pick 2019 (Harry)
2nd round pick 2020 (Sanu)
12+ million (Antonio Brown & Sanu)

Fact: The GM got next to nothing in offensive production for a 1st & 2nd round pick along 12+ million dollars. This played a large part in the team being devoid of skill position talent - not “going all in” in previous years.

Also, the 2019 Bucs were 7-9 with +0.5 PPG differential. Donovan Smith was a disaster at LT. He’s now playing arguably the best football of his career blocking for a QB that gets the ball out quick & can manuever a pocket. Tom is elevating a previously mediocre team.

I usually don’t pick sides & prefer football analysis but there are posters getting threads locked they don’t agree with. I was someone that mistakenly thought Tom was in decline last season. It’s reasonable to discuss why an elite QB was let go with no one to succeed him in place.

 

[skinnydog]

A couple thoughts on this:

1.) I don't think the relationship soured so much as Belichick simply wasn't willing to commit to a longer-term deal and Brady ultimately decided to call his bluff and move on. The Guerrero stuff likely played a role but I'm not sure that was anything irreconcilable.

2.) Your second main paragraph hinges on the idea that there was an irreconcilable breakup and that Kraft would've had to pick one or the other, and I'm not sure I agree with that binary decision, but let's suppose it's true.

The Patriots don't have a competitive roster due to their proverbial 'kicking the can down the road' to extend Brady's window. Whether or not they had Brady this most recent season doesn't change that much, as last year (2019) demonstrated. This team won 7 games this season, and I doubt they win more than 10 if they had Brady. A potential Wild-Card team, but not much more than that. Even had Kraft erred on the side of Brady, the outcome of this season is no different. The final window would be the next 2-3 years, where the Pats now have cap space. That's basically it, and once that window passed, the team would be without both Brady and Belichick. Is that really what Kraft wants?

Rather (again, sticking with this binary, Brady OR Belichick dichotomy, which I don't buy into ... but for the sake of argument), Kraft chose Belichick, who not only sits in a position able to capitalize over the next 2-3 years with the existing cap space, but some time beyond that.

Belichick is 68 right now - I don't see him lasting much longer than 77-78 ... 80 is certainly the cutoff. Given his love for the game, the fact that he's coaching with his son, and the opportunity in front of him, I expect he'll err on the older side of that window and make it to 77-78 before he finally pulls the plug for good (depending on his health, of course). Maybe I'm overestimating him, but that feels right to me. So another decade of Belichick, potentially. Hard to call that a bad outcome for Kraft and Patriots' fans in general. Even should Belichick make it to 75, which may be a bit more realistic, that's another 6-7 seasons of Belichick, again, an outcome I would consider good for Kraft and anyone interested in the success of the Patriots.

the Pats have rarely kicked the can down the road in terms of the cap. The Pats specifically avoided doing this. Even this year, the Pats had minimal cap space available but didn’t have to make big cuts To get under the cap as most teams have to do occasionally. And the Pats really made little to no effort to clear up space to sign some free agents to shore up a woeful offense.

 

[bresna]

And yes, the pats could have traded for Diggs instead of the Bills.

That is absolutely untrue. We discussed just a few weeks ago. When the Bills traded for Diggs, the Patriots didn't have the cap space to make that deal. They would have had to withdraw the Franchise tag from Thuney. Others have suggested restructures, but that is not something that can be done in a vacuum. Diggs was available, the Patriots didn't have the cap space. Period. You can't call a team and say, "Hey, can you give us a few days to sit down with a few of our players to negotiate some cap relief"?

On top of that, Diggs is not worth a 1st round draft pick for the 2020 season we were likely to have.

The 2020 offseason started out with no cap space at all. They couldn't give Brady $43.5 Million ($25 Million that TB is paying him plus his $13.5 Million from his last contract), never mind pay Diggs' salary. It's also why they traded Gronk. When Gronk went to "un-retire", he knew they had to trade him - they couldn't even fit his $10 Million onto the cap.

 

[skinnydog]

Let's examine spending to the cap with one example since you people keep conflating a paycheck with cap debt.

"Pay" and "cap" are two different things.

In 2018 the Patriots reworked Stephon Gilmore's deal, paying him more of his owed salary upfront but kicking some of his salary cap money down the road so they could sign other players at the trade deadline. If they had available space to work with they simply would have signed said player, they didn't.

2018



In 2019 the Patriots did the same thing, reworked Gilmore's deal and pushed more salary cap down the road so they could sign players at the trade deadline. Salary cap owed doesn't disappear until it's paid, it accumulates and snowballs. If they had available space to work with they simply would have signed said player, they didn't.

2019



In 2020 the Patriots had to move half of Gilmore's 2021 salary into 2020 just to keep him happy and because he did them a favor twice, he wasn't about to play for 7 million dollars after winning DPOY nor should he. Stephon's 2020 cap hit is huge at $28,341,668 while his salary is only $15,500,000. His cap hit if he plays in 2021 is large at $17,170,834 especially since he is only owed the remainder of his salary at $7,500,000... which he absolutely won't play for, even if he is coming off injury, and nor should he.

Gilmore's cap hit in 2020 and 2021 is bloated as a result of kicking the salary cap can down the road. They did this to provide deep teams from 2014-2019 for Brady. I get that you people only see "weapons" and nothing else, but having the best defense, special teams and O-Line alone is why they were as good as they were. They kicked the salary cap can down the road on Brady's contract every year going back to 2014, they did it for Gronk, they did it for Gilmore, they did it for Cannon when they had to wedge Sanu on the roster and they did it for numerous other players.

They have a bunch of dead cap on their books that needs to be cleared off and it's not just the result of signing one or two bad deals but a result of five straight years of pushing salary cap debt into the future so they could sign other players and create competitive rosters. Most of you people including many media members saying Bill is making excuses are clueless.

BB has an economics degree from Wesleyan and Kraft is a billionaire who settled the NFL labor dispute... I'm pretty sure they know what they're doing. But maybe I'm wrong and the jokers here who didn't know the difference between "cap" and "dead cap" have it all figured out. Or the media who are taking this opportunity to dance on BB's grave for being mean to them all these years... laughable.

Yes pay and spending to the cap are different and in the actual cash payment part the Pats are closer to the bottom than the top of the league.

 

[Wozzy]

Then they traded Cooks when it came to be the Pats turn to pay him. And yes, the pats could have traded for Diggs instead of the Bills.

I could use all the collateral on my house to finance a Ferrari, then when it needs a tuneup or tires I'll have no money to do either. When it breaks down it will sit in my garage and I won't be able to drive to work, until the day the bank comes to take my house, my car and my dog... smart.

Brady and Diggs with the ballboy, water boy and the front office guys playing O-Line blocking with a gaggle of jags on defense is a terrible team. Football teams are good because 53 men on the roster are good, not because you have a franchise caliber QB. Drew Brees led the NFL in passing in 2016, the Saints had the worst defense in the league... they went 7-9.

The idea that a franchise caliber QB and weapons alone will win you a ring is the stuff of fanboys who don't understand the game at all.

Just because you can borrow money, doesn't make it smart.

 

[203Pat]

We have a lot of good young players and another group of double digit picks this upcoming draft... the draft alone is never the only way to build a team. Next season this will be one of the youngest rosters in the NFL. Stop being a drama queen.

What good young players that will be here in another two years? A few offensive lineman? Maybe Damien Harris? Dugger and Uche look like they might be able to play but the jury is still out. Trying to figure out who the others are.

 

[1960Pats]

Brady might have been good for a few more wins in regular season and possibly a playoff birth, but we would have had the bag beaten out of us by pretty much any playoff contender this year.. just like last year against the Titans, because the offense is so easy to defend against from a matchup perspective.. and that is all the playoffs really are is matchups

They beat the Ratbirds and came close to KC and Seattle this year with no QB or one who couldn't read a defense to save his life and was bouncing passes to wide open receivers. I'm pretty sure that Brady would have made a big difference. Last year Brady had no time to pass. This year he would have.

But let's say Brady wouldn't make a difference. WTF is so wrong about enjoying the GOAT playing out his career here after giving us the best 20 years any sports franchise has ever seen?

And one last question that goes to everyone. Why didn't we have a decent option at QB? Did Belichick just say screw it, we can win without one or was he trying to lose?

 

[skinnydog]

That is absolutely untrue. We discussed just a few weeks ago. When the Bills traded for Diggs, the Patriots didn't have the cap space to make that deal. They would have had to withdraw the Franchise tag from Thuney. Others have suggested restructures, but that is not something that can be done in a vacuum. Diggs was available, the Patriots didn't have the cap space. Period. You can't call a team and say, "Hey, can you give us a few days to sit down with a few of our players to negotiate some cap relief"?

On top of that, Diggs is not worth a 1st round draft pick for the 2020 season we were likely to have.

The 2020 offseason started out with no cap space at all. They couldn't give Brady $43.5 Million ($25 Million that TB is paying him plus his $13.5 Million from his last contract), never mind the what Diggs wanted. It's also why they traded Gronk. When Gronk went to "un-retire", he knew they had to trade him - they couldn't even fit his $10 Million onto the cap.

They could and possibly should have rescinded Thuneys 15 mil tag and traded for a Diggs. And yes Diggs was worth a first.

 

[203Pat]

Since there was no replacement for Brady it shows that Bill was overconfident about Brady coming back on a lowball offer. There can't be any other explanation.

I still haven't seen team Bill address the fact he was seemingly content to go into 2020 with Stidham and Hoyer.

 

[Wozzy]

What good young players that will be here in another two years? A few offensive lineman? Maybe Damien Harris? Dugger and Uche look like they might be able to play but the jury is still out. Trying to figure out who the others are.

According to you Negative Nancy's we sucked for the last six years and had no talent, if we won 3 rings with no talent I'm sure we'll be fine.

 

[Froob]

That is absolutely untrue. We discussed just a few weeks ago. When the Bills traded for Diggs, the Patriots didn't have the cap space to make that deal. They would have had to withdraw the Franchise tag from Thuney. Others have suggested restructures, but that is not something that can be done in a vacuum. Diggs was available, the Patriots didn't have the cap space. Period. You can't call a team and say, "Hey, can you give us a few days to sit down with a few of our players to negotiate some cap relief"?

On top of that, Diggs is not worth a 1st round draft pick for the 2020 season we were likely to have.

The 2020 offseason started out with no cap space at all. They couldn't give Brady $43.5 Million ($25 Million that TB is paying him plus his $13.5 Million from his last contract), never mind pay Diggs' salary. It's also why they traded Gronk. When Gronk went to "un-retire", he knew they had to trade him - they couldn't even fit his $10 Million onto the cap.

Only guy we realistically could have gone after is Cooper Kupp, but Rams got a deal done with him eventually.

 

[Wozzy]

I still haven't seen team Bill address the fact he was seemingly content to go into 2020 with Stidham and Hoyer.

Stidham, Hoyer and Cam... did you miss that?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

A couple thoughts on this:

1.) I don't think the relationship soured so much as Belichick simply wasn't willing to commit to a longer-term deal and Brady ultimately decided to call his bluff and move on. The Guerrero stuff likely played a role but I'm not sure that was anything irreconcilable.

2.) Your second main paragraph hinges on the idea that there was an irreconcilable breakup and that Kraft would've had to pick one or the other, and I'm not sure I agree with that binary decision, but let's suppose it's true.

The Patriots don't have a competitive roster due to their proverbial 'kicking the can down the road' to extend Brady's window. Whether or not they had Brady this most recent season doesn't change that much, as last year (2019) demonstrated. This team won 7 games this season, and I doubt they win more than 10 if they had Brady. A potential Wild-Card team, but not much more than that. Even had Kraft erred on the side of Brady, the outcome of this season is no different. The final window would be the next 2-3 years, where the Pats now have cap space. That's basically it, and once that window passed, the team would be without both Brady and Belichick. Is that really what Kraft wants?

Rather (again, sticking with this binary, Brady OR Belichick dichotomy, which I don't buy into ... but for the sake of argument), Kraft chose Belichick, who not only sits in a position able to capitalize over the next 2-3 years with the existing cap space, but some time beyond that.

Belichick is 68 right now - I don't see him lasting much longer than 77-78 ... 80 is certainly the cutoff. Given his love for the game, the fact that he's coaching with his son, and the opportunity in front of him, I expect he'll err on the older side of that window and make it to 77-78 before he finally pulls the plug for good (depending on his health, of course). Maybe I'm overestimating him, but that feels right to me. So another decade of Belichick, potentially. Hard to call that a bad outcome for Kraft and Patriots' fans in general. Even should Belichick make it to 75, which may be a bit more realistic, that's another 6-7 seasons of Belichick, again, an outcome I would consider good for Kraft and anyone interested in the success of the Patriots.

Okay, I understand your argument. But 2-3 years (it could be more) if having an all-time great Brady gives you a better chance to win a Super Bowl than 8-10 years of any coach or GM or coach/GM who has ever existed.

Brady has already made the conference championship game. The chances aren’t great that the Patriots will make it to even one conference championship game before Belichick retires.

 

[Froob]

I still haven't seen team Bill address the fact he was seemingly content to go into 2020 with Stidham and Hoyer.

I think we'll get the details one day, I think they really were impressed with Stidham and he showed up training camp 2020 and...

 

[Wozzy]

1st round pick 2019 (Harry)
2nd round pick 2020 (Sanu)
12+ million (Antonio Brown & Sanu)

Fact: The GM got next to nothing in offensive production for a 1st & 2nd round pick along 12+ million dollars. This played a large part in the team being devoid of skill position talent - not “going all in” in previous years.

Also, the 2019 Bucs were 7-9 with +0.5 PPG differential. Donovan Smith was a disaster at LT. He’s now playing arguably the best football of his career blocking for a QB that gets the ball out quick & can manuever a pocket. Tom is elevating a previously mediocre team.

I usually don’t pick sides & prefer football analysis but there are posters getting threads locked they don’t agree with. I was someone that mistakenly thought Tom was in decline last season. It’s reasonable to discuss why an elite QB was let go with no one to succeed him in place.

The 2020 Bucs are an All Star team. What happened before has nothing to do with now.

Besides in 2019 the Bucs led the NFL in passing yards and TD's... they were hardly devoid of talent and any QB who didn't lead the league in turnovers like Jameis Winston did was going to be an improvement.