This Super Bowl Will Hinge on the Patriots Defense

The Patriots under Bill Belichick have had one of the greatest playoff runs in the history of the sport. They are 20-8, having made it to nine AFC Championship Games and six Super Bowls. That is, by far, the best playoff portfolio in the salary cap era, and perhaps only the great run by the San Francisco 49ers in the 80s and 90s rivals it for long-term, sustained success.

The Patriots under Bill Belichick have had one of the greatest playoff runs in the history of the sport.
(USA TODAY Images)

During the first three seasons' of playoffs (2001-02, 2003-04, and 2004-05), the Patriots went 9-0, winning three Lombardi trophies. They won high-scoring games (32-29 over Carolina in Super Bowl 38; 41-27 over Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game two weeks before Super Bowl 39). And they won low-scoring games (17-14 over Tennessee in 2004; 16-13 over Oakland in 2002). Those teams were versatile enough to win no matter what kind of game was being played.

But since their last Super Bowl victory, the Patriots are an astonishing 0-6 when they scoring fewer than 21 points in the playoffs. Here are these six losses:

1-14-06 at Den: L, 27-13
2-3-08 vs NYG: L, 17-14
1-10-10 vs Bal: L, 33-14
2-5-12 vs NYG: L, 21-17
1-20-13 vs Bal: L, 28-13
1-19-14 at Den: L, 26-16

So they are 0-6 in the playoffs when scoring 21 or fewer points since their last Super Bowl victory, but they are 11-1 when scoring 21 or more points (the lone loss was to the Jets, 28-21, in 2011).

Why is the number 21 significant? In the Patriots' five most recent Super Bowl appearances, they've averaged 21.4 points per game. They've scored 32, 24, 20, 17, and 14 points. Those outputs represent huge declines from their regular season performances. And none of those games were against defenses as good as what they will face this coming Sunday.

Seattle's defense this year underperformed early, as they had numerous players out due to injury. But the last 13 games (including playoffs) for the Seahawks produced some truly frightening numbers. Over those 13 games, they allowed an average of just 13.8 points per game, and just 251.5 yards per game. In today's NFL, those are paltry.

It is true that the Seahawks have not exactly played a Murderer's Row of offenses during that time. They faced only 3 teams with top 16 offenses (if you combine the yards and points rankings, then divide by two):

- NY Giants (#13 points, #10 yards): 17 points, 324 yards

- Philadelphia (#3 points, #5 yards): 14 points, 139 yards

- Green Bay (#1 points, #6 yards): 22 points, 306 yards

That's an average of 17.7 points and 256.3 yards allowed against the best offenses they faced over the last 13 weeks. Very, very impressive.

The Patriots represent perhaps the best offense the Seahawks will face all season long. But it is probably fair to say that Seattle will not allow New England to move the ball at will or put a lot of points on the board. Two key players to keep in mind: Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman are both dealing with significant injuries. They are very tough players and will be in the lineup on Sunday, but it might not take much to put them out of the game. If they are forced to leave, the Seahawks' defense looks very different. But let's assume they play and play well. Points will be at a premium.

If points are going to be hard to come by for the offense, the onus falls on the defense to step up. For the last nine years, the Patriots have had a dynamic, pinball-style offense that has put up huge numbers of points and yards. It's been electric. It's been fun. It's been incredibly productive and even record-setting. But they haven't been able to see it through to the end.

Defensively, they've put together patchwork units at times and during the playoffs, they simply have not been able to win low-scoring games. If we assume the Patriots will score between 17-20 points, the defense will have to put up a tremendous performance for the Patriots to win.

Many fans have been clamoring for New England to revert back to the style that won them three Super Bowl championships in the early 2000s: Smart, efficient offense that can beat you through the air or on the ground, and a tough, hard-hitting defense that is capable of shutting down even the best offenses in the game (see Super Bowl 36 against the Rams).

This defense is capable of just that. They won several games this year when the offense was not clicking (16-9 over the Raiders and 17-16 over the Jets), giving us a glimpse that this team has the ability to win even if the offense isn't playing up to snuff.

The Seahawks do not have a dynamic offense. They finished 10th in the league in points scored and 9th in yards gained. So they are good, but not electric. They pound the ball with Marshawn Lynch, and had the league's best rushing attack overall. Russell Wilson is a tremendous runner, and the Patriots are not particularly adept at defending the read option, which is something Seattle will probably employ this Sunday. The passing game is solid, but not spectacular, so the Patriots should have the edge there with their secondary.

If this game is going to be played in the teens, the defense needs to play its best game of the season. The offseason seemed to be all about getting the Patriots back to their championship roots: built around a knockout defense.

This week will be the ultimate test of that. Can they win a low-scoring game against one of the best teams in the league, when the Lombardi Trophy is at stake?

Every Patriots' fan in the world hopes the answer is yes.