Which teams do you consider plausible Super Bowl participants?

[Actual Pats Fan]

By plausible, I mean that it wouldn't be too surprising: a lucky break or two, along with good injury luck, and the appearance would seem reasonable. They might not be the favorites, per se - maybe you have a team that you expect to outperform expectations - but they're the ones you'd expect to have a good shot at the AFC/NFC championship games, where that luck (like a Brady injury) could happen.

For the AFC, I'd say the Patriots, Steelers, Texans, and Raiders qualify; for the NFC, the Cowboys, Falcons, Seahawks, and Packers.

The Chiefs seem to have reached their ceiling, and I think they'd need a postseason gift-wrapped with injured opposing QBs to break through; Smith is too limited to carry a team and Reid's flaws as a coach are worsened in the postseason. The Colts just aren't that good, and Luck's not nearly as good as Peyton was at compensating for poor protection. The Titans might make the cut next year, but at this point I'd be shocked if they busted through. The Ravens are dangerous in any single game, but aren't consistent enough to make a run reasonable.

Meanwhile the Patriots are the favorites, the Steelers just need somebody else to take out the Patriots, the Raiders could take anybody in a shootout, and the Texans just need Watson to be Rob Johnson to be a threat.

Unlike the AFC, where there's a couple of teams I see falling short but still being good (I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Chiefs won their division, even), the NFC seems a bit more top heavy this year. The Bucs are really the only ones who seem ready to challenge for recognition - the Lions are deeply flawed, the Panthers caught lightning in a bottle two years ago, and who else is there? The Cardinals, who are hoping that Palmer can continue to survive?

Atlanta's offense is stellar, and likewise the Cowboys; both can take the Raiders route of winning shootouts. The Packers are prone to inexplicable losing streaks but have the talent and the QB to win another title. The Seahawks are a solid team with one glaring weakness (the inoffensive line) standing in the way, and just need them to play not-bad.

The Patriots vs. the Team They Will Beat To Win Their Sixth.

Again, our toughest test could be in February.

The jump in competition from the Texans/Steelers to the Falcons was, obviously, enormous.

 

[Ivan]

It's doubtful the NFC will field one this year. It's a Patriots problem.

 

[XLIX]

Dallas takes a major step back this year. Tennessee steps up. Pittsburgh is as Pittsburgh does (win division, lose in playoffs).

GB will be dangerous. Oakland takes a small step back too, but probably wins the division. Giants struggle to win 7.

 

[jmt57]

As a point of reference, here are how teams did in the season prior to making it to the Super Bowl since the start of the salary cap. Since 2006 only one team has made it back to the SB the following year (Seattle), and in that time frame you are more likely to get a team that missed the playoffs the previous year (six instances) than one that lost in the prior conference championship game (five instances).

Interesting to note that of the 12 teams that made it to the SB from 1998 to 2003, 75% had missed the playoffs the previous season - but last year was the first time that happened in the last five seasons.

During the salary cap era only four teams out of 44 possibilities have made it to the Super Bowl in consecutive seasons.

• Packers, SB 31-32
• Broncos, SB 32-33
• Patriots, SB 38-39
• Seahawks, SB 48-49

Note: year denotes season, not the date of the SB; ie, 2016 = 2016 season/2017 SB.

2016 winner: 12-4, won division; bye, lost in CCG
SB 51 loser: 8-8, missed playoffs

2015 winner: 12-4, won div, bye, lost div round
SB 50 loser: 7-8-1, won div, lost in division round

2014 winner: 12-4, won div, bye, lost in CCG
SB 49 loser: 13-3, won div, won super bowl

2013 winner: 11-5, 2nd in div, lost in div round
SB 48 loser: 13-3, won div, bye, lost in div round

2012 winner: 12-4, won div, bye, lost in CCG
SB 47 loser: 13-3, won div, bye, lost in CCG

2011 winner: 10-6, 2nd place, missed playoffs
SB 46 loser: 14-2, won div, bye, lost in div round

2010 winner: 11-5, 2nd place, lost wild card game
SB 45 loser: 9-7, 3rd place, missed playoffs

2009 winner: 8-8, 4th place, missed playoffs
SB 44 loser: 12-4, 2nd place, lost wild card game

2008 winner: 10-6, won div, lost wild card game
SB 43 loser: 8-8, 2nd place, missed playoffs

2007 winner: 8-8, 3rd place, missed playoffs
SB 42 loser: 12-4, won div, no bye, lost CCG

2006 winner: 14-2, won div, bye, lost div round
SB 41 loser: 11-5, won div, bye, lost div round

2005 winner: 15-1, won div, bye, lost CCG
SB 40 loser: 9-7, won div, lost wild card game

2004 winner: 14-2, super bowl champions
SB 39 loser: 12-4, won div, bye, lost CCG

2003 winner: 9-7, 2nd place, missed playoffs
SB 38 loser: 7-9, 4th place, missed playoffs

2002 winner: 9-7, 3rd place, missed playoffs
SB 37 loser: 10-6, won div, no bye, lost div round

2001 winner: 5-11, 5th place, missed playoffs
SB 36 loser: 10-6, 2nd place, lost wild card game

2000 winner: 8-8, 3rd place, missed playoffs
SB 35 loser: 7-9, 3rd place, missed playoffs

1999 winner: 4-12, 5th place, missed playoffs
SB 34 loser: 8-8, 2nd place, missed playoffs

1998 winner: 12-4, 2nd place, won super bowl
SB 33 loser: 7-9, 3rd place, missed playoffs

1997 winner: 13-3, 1st place, bye, lost div round
SB 32 loser: 13-3, 1st place, bye, won super bowl

1996 winner: 11-5, 1st place, no bye, lost CCG
SB 31 loser: 6-10, 4th place, missed playoffs

1995 winner: 12-4, 1st place, bye, lost CCG
SB 30 loser: 12-4, 1st place, bye, lost CCG

1994 winner: 10-6, 1st place, bye, lost CCG
SB 29 loser: 8-8, 4th place, missed playoffs


Numbers for how teams finished the previous year:

• 24 (52%) won their division
• 5 (11%) made it as a wild card team
• 17 (37%) missed the playoffs
• 5 (11%) lost in a wild card game
• 9 (20%) lost in a division round game
• 11 (24%) lost in a conference championship game
• 4 (9%) won the super bowl the previous year
• Zero teams lost the SB and returned the next season, during the salary cap era.

There is almost no correlation between how a team performed one year, and making it to the Super Bowl the next season - which makes predictions such as these extremely difficult.

• Division winners vs non-division winners is almost even (52% to 48%).
• It is a fairly even three-way split between making it to a conference championship game (33%) versus losing earlier in the playoffs (31%) versus missing the playoffs entirely (37%).

 

[Joey007]

its easier to list the teams not plausible.

Jags browns rams and jets are the only teams i see that have ZERO shot at the superbowl.

If the patriots stumble the AFC is wide open, and the NFC is basically a roulette wheel of teams that could make it.

So how does Brian Hoyer 'plausibly' lead the 49ers to the Super Bowl?

 

[Joey007]

Dallas takes a major step back this year. Tennessee steps up. Pittsburgh is as Pittsburgh does (win division, lose in playoffs).

GB will be dangerous. Oakland takes a small step back too, but probably wins the division. Giants struggle to win 7.

How big of a step for Tennessee? I saw USA Today had them at 12 wins. Really might be possible, which would be an unbelievable turnaround for them.

 

[drewskie]

Not sold on PIT.

OAK is intriguing with Lynch and a good OL. Their defense is still questionable.
TEN is projected to be the surprise breakout team in the AFC South this year.
DEN if they can get better OL play to help out their sophomore QBs and Anderson/Charles contribute to make it easier on either QB.

HOU with Watson and good running game coupled with the return of Watt to a very good defensive front is actually the one blueprint in the AFC that if I had to pick, would be the one to stylistically give them a chance against NE. We are probably fielding the deepest team in our current run though.

In the NFC, I see 3-4 teams with a legit shot at making SB52.

ATL is bringing back their core and have an offense and QB that can give any defense a tough time. As proven in SB51, they are a very smart offense that takes what the defense gives them. Outside a couple of questionable play calls and execution at picking up the Hightower blitz, they gave us everything we could handle (forced Belichick to blitz in the 4th quarter to generate pressure because they weren't making mistakes).

SEA could be on its last legs with this core, but they are loading up for one final run it seems.

GB will be there simply due to Rodgers, but their defense still appears questionable.

NYG still have that stout defense and the receiving corps. Will Paul Perkins be a breakout star for them as their lack of a run game doomed them last year, and will we see the SB Eli that doesnt throw picks?

I think ATL and NYG if we ever get either match up again in SB52 should we be fortunate enough to make it will prove to be difficult match ups.

 

[supafly]

Dallas takes a major step back this year. Tennessee steps up. Pittsburgh is as Pittsburgh does (win division, lose in playoffs).

GB will be dangerous. Oakland takes a small step back too, but probably wins the division. Giants struggle to win 7.

I'd agree with everything aside from your last statement. Their defense is certainly formidable, particularly their secondary, and they've added Brandon Marshall to a WR corps that already includes Sterling Shepard and OBJ. They're also getting Shane Vereen back from injury.

If you think DAL will take a step back as I do, it's difficult to see PHI or WSH winning the division, let alone seeing the NYG only winning 7 total games. I think they're a 9-10 win team.

 

[supafly]

ATL is for real.

They're getting back their CB1 Desmond Trufant, and also have added Dontari Poe on the DL. Taking it one step further, some of those younger players and now more experienced and confident. They are strong on both sides of the ball.

If we're talking final four NFC team or maybe even final four team overall, it's almost impossible not to include Atlanta.

 

[supafly]

How big of a step for Tennessee? I saw USA Today had them at 12 wins. Really might be possible, which would be an unbelievable turnaround for them.

They still have HOU in their division, and I think many expect the Texans to remain highly competitive with Hopkins and Watt, etc. As a matter of fact, I still expect HOU to win the division. That would mean that if TEN gets in the postseason, they probably aren't going to have more than 10 wins as a WC team, tops.

IND may still be a .500 team, or at least a 7-9 team, considering that JAX is in the division. Those divisional games in the AFCSouth can sometimes be coin flips. I highly doubt that TEN takes the league by storm and suddenly wins 12 games, even with an expected improvement.

 

[XLIX]

How big of a step for Tennessee? I saw USA Today had them at 12 wins. Really might be possible, which would be an unbelievable turnaround for them.

I don't see 12 wins, but I do see them seriously competing for the division at 9 or 10.

 

[chasa]

So how does Brian Hoyer 'plausibly' lead the 49ers to the Super Bowl?

the same went trent dilfer led the ravens.

Good defense, and a run game.

 

[Joey007]

the same went trent dilfer led the ravens.

Good defense, and a run game.

They don't have near the defense yet... and what running game? You think Williams will be that good?

 

[chasa]

They don't have near the defense yet... and what running game? You think Williams will be that good?

i think its plausible they could make it via the nfc yes.

 

[Pats1989]

AFC Best shots in order:

A) Pats.
B) Steelers
C) Raiders, Texans
D) Dolphins, Chiefs, Broncos

NFC:

A) Seattle, GB, Atlanta
B) Giants, Cowboys

 

[Pats1989]

I don't want this team to see the likes of Denver in the playoffs ( Even if it's likely home) nor NYG in SB. No please!!

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

As a point of reference, here are how teams did in the season prior to making it to the Super Bowl since the start of the salary cap. Since 2006 only one team has made it back to the SB the following year (Seattle), and in that time frame you are more likely to get a team that missed the playoffs the previous year (six instances) than one that lost in the prior conference championship game (five instances).

Interesting to note that of the 12 teams that made it to the SB from 1998 to 2003, 75% had missed the playoffs the previous season - but last year was the first time that happened in the last five seasons.

During the salary cap era only four teams out of 44 possibilities have made it to the Super Bowl in consecutive seasons.

• Packers, SB 31-32
• Broncos, SB 32-33
• Patriots, SB 38-39
• Seahawks, SB 48-49

Note: year denotes season, not the date of the SB; ie, 2016 = 2016 season/2017 SB.

2016 winner: 12-4, won division; bye, lost in CCG
SB 51 loser: 8-8, missed playoffs

2015 winner: 12-4, won div, bye, lost div round
SB 50 loser: 7-8-1, won div, lost in division round

2014 winner: 12-4, won div, bye, lost in CCG
SB 49 loser: 13-3, won div, won super bowl

2013 winner: 11-5, 2nd in div, lost in div round
SB 48 loser: 13-3, won div, bye, lost in div round

2012 winner: 12-4, won div, bye, lost in CCG
SB 47 loser: 13-3, won div, bye, lost in CCG

2011 winner: 10-6, 2nd place, missed playoffs
SB 46 loser: 14-2, won div, bye, lost in div round

2010 winner: 11-5, 2nd place, lost wild card game
SB 45 loser: 9-7, 3rd place, missed playoffs

2009 winner: 8-8, 4th place, missed playoffs
SB 44 loser: 12-4, 2nd place, lost wild card game

2008 winner: 10-6, won div, lost wild card game
SB 43 loser: 8-8, 2nd place, missed playoffs

2007 winner: 8-8, 3rd place, missed playoffs
SB 42 loser: 12-4, won div, no bye, lost CCG

2006 winner: 14-2, won div, bye, lost div round
SB 41 loser: 11-5, won div, bye, lost div round

2005 winner: 15-1, won div, bye, lost CCG
SB 40 loser: 9-7, won div, lost wild card game

2004 winner: 14-2, super bowl champions
SB 39 loser: 12-4, won div, bye, lost CCG

2003 winner: 9-7, 2nd place, missed playoffs
SB 38 loser: 7-9, 4th place, missed playoffs

2002 winner: 9-7, 3rd place, missed playoffs
SB 37 loser: 10-6, won div, no bye, lost div round

2001 winner: 5-11, 5th place, missed playoffs
SB 36 loser: 10-6, 2nd place, lost wild card game

2000 winner: 8-8, 3rd place, missed playoffs
SB 35 loser: 7-9, 3rd place, missed playoffs

1999 winner: 4-12, 5th place, missed playoffs
SB 34 loser: 8-8, 2nd place, missed playoffs

1998 winner: 12-4, 2nd place, won super bowl
SB 33 loser: 7-9, 3rd place, missed playoffs

1997 winner: 13-3, 1st place, bye, lost div round
SB 32 loser: 13-3, 1st place, bye, won super bowl

1996 winner: 11-5, 1st place, no bye, lost CCG
SB 31 loser: 6-10, 4th place, missed playoffs

1995 winner: 12-4, 1st place, bye, lost CCG
SB 30 loser: 12-4, 1st place, bye, lost CCG

1994 winner: 10-6, 1st place, bye, lost CCG
SB 29 loser: 8-8, 4th place, missed playoffs


Numbers for how teams finished the previous year:

• 24 (52%) won their division
• 5 (11%) made it as a wild card team
• 17 (37%) missed the playoffs
• 5 (11%) lost in a wild card game
• 9 (20%) lost in a division round game
• 11 (24%) lost in a conference championship game
• 4 (9%) won the super bowl the previous year
• Zero teams lost the SB and returned the next season, during the salary cap era.

There is almost no correlation between how a team performed one year, and making it to the Super Bowl the next season - which makes predictions such as these extremely difficult.

• Division winners vs non-division winners is almost even (52% to 48%).
• It is a fairly even three-way split between making it to a conference championship game (33%) versus losing earlier in the playoffs (31%) versus missing the playoffs entirely (37%).

Thus, the present-day Patriots are an anomaly...and may very well continue to be even after Tom retires, as long as there are lots of teammates and coaches left over.

Each season is unpredictable - including our Pats' in 2017. Depending upon injuries and other potential adversity, they may only qualify for the playoffs as a wild card - but the major factor will still be the their health and how they're playing. The AFC does still appear inferior, but things change from year to year, such that people able to make clear, sound evaluations of players and teams - regardless of their records - are best qualified to speculate.

I remember Belichick gave a glowing evaluation of upcoming opponent New Orleans before Thanksgiving in '05, which was mocked and laughed at. We beat the Saints by a touchdown at Gillette; a year later they were in the NFCCG and three years later won the Super Bowl.