Matt Chatham on the Patriots defense and pointlessness of cumulative stats in general

[jimnance]

So what, the only people providing NFL analysis worth paying attention to are former Pro Bowlers?

Actually some comments now make sense, since your go-to guys for NFL opinions must be Marshall Faulk, Shannon Sharpe and LaDainian Tomlinson.

How the Patriots have managed to win a single game with Bill Belichick, Matt Patricia, Josh McDaniels and Nick Caserio, all of whom have never played in the NFL, is simply mind boggling. No idea how Bill Walsh or Paul Brown ever became a head coach either.

Jmt- consider the source.

 

[jimnance]

The Patriots’ defense took "bend but don’t break" to a new level in 2017

View attachment 19095

I agree with Chatham that "bend but don't break" does not accurately describes the Patriots defense.
As he points out, they don't sell the house to stop people between the 20-50.
It's just not that important and the risk doesn't equal the reward.
The risk is giving up big plays. The reward isn't that great.: maybe a 3and out, maybe you stop them at their own 30. So what?
But WHERE IT REALLY COUNTS, in the red zone, Patriots is NOT bend but don't break; as Chatham says, it's STIFLING.
Patriots D is #2 in red zone. Almost every year they rank near the top.

 

[long distance]

best Chat pod so far

liked the Dorsett part of course.. great Corvette analogy too

i posted Weiss reservations on Cooks route running and inability to be true #1 (while not denying he can be a great weapon) and Chatham sort of follows it up by seeing Dorsett as more versatile and elusive player of the two speedsters better equipped for screens, play action and underneath routs

one point to add here could be that while cooks is a great weapon he is also a very dangerous weapon . not only for opposing Ds but for Pats O as well. he thrives on big plays and those are the riskiest plays as well - even w Tommy driving. Without underneath game you can quickly get yourself in trouble that way and thats what we saw this year at times esp. when Gronk was (cut) off. Some of TB troubles are connected with this I believe and its not just about Jules.

I agree w Chatham that Dorsett could benefit greatly from a full off/pre season w Tommy - and I hope we get to see it. For this playoffs, getting MM back in some capacity could help the “safer“ WR chain-game..

 

[SammyBlueCat]

I listened to the entire podcast last night. He artfully describes the fact that some kingdoms are built on weak bricks.

 

[jmt57]

In case anybody may have missed it, this was well worth your time if you like x's and'o's more than gossip and speculation:


NYJ Part II Breakdown; Plus Why Stats Fail to Understand the Patriots Stingy D — The REAL THING Patriots Podcast — Overcast

 

[luuked]

one point to add here could be that while cooks is a great weapon he is also a very dangerous weapon . not only for opposing Ds but for Pats O as well. he thrives on big plays and those are the riskiest plays as well - even w Tommy driving. Without underneath game you can quickly get yourself in trouble that way and thats what we saw this year at times esp. when Gronk was (cut) off. Some of TB troubles are connected with this I believe and its not just about Jules.

I think the inherent low percentage nature of deep throws is something that goes under a lot in the discussion here. And if you look at how Cooks went 7 for 26 on third down then you really gotta wonder if Brady is not forcing it to Cooks a bit too much instead of giving the ball to the player who is open at sticks depth.

 

[DarrylS]

I follow Chatham on Twitter, and he has spent most of the year dispelling his view of erroneous information about defensive statistics...

He has also been a clear voice on the absurdity of spending 31% of the Cap on #12 and Jimmy G... then his disbelief that BB is good buddies with Goodell, particularly after Goodell stole 500K from him..

Matt Chatham‏Verified account @chatham58
Calling the amount of yards allowed “Total Defense” is one of the dumbest things we do in the NFL. It’s like adding up all the conversations you have w/ you wife and calling it “Total Sex.” *Yards aren’t the point of the game. It’s scoring.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

I listened to the entire podcast last night. He artfully describes the fact that some kingdoms are built on weak bricks.

"Potemkin Village"

I would say up to 75% of the league right now is like that.

 

[Sicilian]

Something else to consider (which I think he touches on a little bit), is that there's a complementary nature between the offense and how you strategize on defense (and vice versa). If they didn't think this offense had the chance on every drive to go 80+ yards for a score, they wouldn't be as loose between the 20's on defense. They would prioritize riskier plays, trying to force better field position for their offense. As it is, having a punt downed inside the 10, or at least never having a short field are not deathknells for this offense. No part of the game exists in a vacuum.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

Something else to consider (which I think he touches on a little bit), is that there's a complementary nature between the offense and how you strategize on defense (and vice versa). If they didn't think this offense had the chance on every drive to go 80+ yards for a score, they wouldn't be as loose between the 20's on defense. They would prioritize riskier plays, trying to force better field position for their offense. As it is, having a punt downed inside the 10, or at least never having a short field are not deathknells for this offense. No part of the game exists in a vacuum.

Agreed. It's a big picture look which is why cherrypicking stats is dangerous. The stats or analytics only give you the facts, but it doesn't tell you the WHY those numbers are the way they are.

Also, anyone can misrepresent numbers. In 2006 and 20067 GM was telling us "all is well!", but for the previous 15-20 years, we'd all see more and more Japanese or even South Korean cars at stoplights.

If you read some Pats messageboards, there are scary people out there, who fall prey to the anti-BB media.

That's a big thing with this, too...The media hates BB so much they don't want to ever compliment him, so they attack his defense via news print and on the radio/tv. EVERY YEAR.