Are Brady's struggles in Miami overstated?

I was just looking at Brady's career game log vs the Dolphins, in Miami.

The sum total of his last 3 visits:

59/80 859 Yards 9 TD 2 INT - Rating 135.36

It makes sense to me that his most recent performances should be the most relevant - as they more closely demonstrate the type of QB he is now along with how he deals with the Miami D.

What say you?

I still think that it's a difficult place to play, but you make a great point too. With his problems in the past, I think Miami will always be considered a challenge.

I expect a closer game than some think, just due to ironing out some of the potential early season struggles with the 1st team offense. Hopefully I am wrong, and it's a 14+ pt game. I am always leery of giving pts on the road, as it's never a particularly high-percentage play, but of course the NEP are a different animal altogether.

The point is, yes personally I still feel as though going down to Miami is a tough out. Especially due to the fact that they will be a bit pumped up in regards to it being a MNF game + hopes are high for the new yr. I'd rather have gone there in a few weeks or so, something a bit later on in the season.

I still think we'll win, but don't share the same opinion that MIA is a laughingstock, at least not in this particular instance of it being the opener etc.

In the recent past the Fins D was stronger. No matter how weak they may be or get, Divisional games also have a tendency to be closer then out of the Division.

That being said, the Fins are not looking too good. If the Pats do not have a notable breakdown, but play roughly to form, it should be a done deal by the middle of the 3rd Quarter - but you never know.... Those two 0-2 starts in SB years do keep prodding the memory.

Yes..but people already decided to say he struggles there so thats what they will say forever, not matter what. Thats how fans are.

This is a rough time of year to go down to Miami. Even with the later start, it's still Miami in the Summer (technically), and the Dolphins will be more used to the heat and humidity than the Pats will.

Couple that with week 1 games being historically erratic, and there's no guarantees here. No doubt though the Pats SHOULD be Miami fairly easily based on talent and coaching.

Sicilian said:

This is a rough time of year to go down to Miami. Even with the later start, it's still Miami in the Summer (technically), and the Dolphins will be more used to the heat and humidity than the Pats will.

Couple that with week 1 games being historically erratic, and there's no guarantees here. No doubt though the Pats SHOULD be Miami fairly easily based on talent and coaching.

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lucky for us it is a NIGHT game. the heat won't be like it was in the afternoon

Didn't Jason Taylor sign with dolphins again ? That dude always gave trouble to Matt Light and Brady. Hope his motor is not as good in the past. This will be a big test to our O line

The good part of playing early in the Miami humidity is.......

Fat Albert may lose some excess baggage

Divisional games will always be tougher no matter what.

Most of Brady's hardest and more challening games ususally comes from divisional rivals. The Jets always give him problems, Dolphins have not counting last season and believe it or not, the Bills last season in the first game played really well.

Not that they gave him problems but it was a shootout and makes the point that division games are always different.

Keeping that in mind, I still don't think the Phins win this game but it wont be as easy as people say it is. Its an away game, Monday night, first game of the season. Thats what I call tremendous pressure. We will handle it though.

parthasas said:

Didn't Jason Taylor sign with dolphins again ? That dude always gave trouble to Matt Light and Brady. Hope his motor is not as good in the past. This will be a big test to our O line

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True but Taylor has lost a step, gotten older and isnt the same guy anymore. Still a great player but he shouldn't give us that many hard times.

His struggles in Miami early in his career have been OVERCOME.

Maybe those struggles were just a statistical happenstance of small sample size, and the average Brady performance has trended toward the mean, for Tom.

Anybody want to check Brady's career stats WITHOUT the STOLEN SIGNAL game.

I think that is probably a best indicator of what he does there. That game was the true anomoly because they knew what he was doing.

Gumby said:

Anybody want to check Brady's career stats WITHOUT the STOLEN SIGNAL game.

I think that is probably a best indicator of what he does there. That game was the true anomoly because they knew what he was doing.

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If you're going to do that, then you should take the two 2007 games too, those were anomalies.

parthasas said:

Didn't Jason Taylor sign with dolphins again ? That dude always gave trouble to Matt Light and Brady. Hope his motor is not as good in the past. This will be a big test to our O line

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I worry more about Cameron Wake coming off the right side, especially if Vollmer is out. That's a tough situation to put Solder in -- his first action at RT against Wake and a MNF game. It definitely will be interesting to see how the OL plays.

I think with so many sources of information and opinions about football all competing for the attention of a finite number of football fans, just about everything gets overstated; the "Brady historically struggles in Miami" angle is just one example.

A few years ago they had Madison and (forget the other CB) in their prime and they caused Brady fits, they excelled on press man coverage, however we didn't have the TE threat we have now. Gronk and Hernandez are becoming what BB hoped for from Graham and Watson.

It's usually hot and brutally humid down there and our boy wilt like a flower in the hot sun...oh well....maybe they'll win anyway, who knows.

livinginthe past said:

I was just looking at Brady's career game log vs the Dolphins, in Miami.

The sum total of his last 3 visits:

59/80 859 Yards 9 TD 2 INT - Rating 135.36

It makes sense to me that his most recent performances should be the most relevant - as they more closely demonstrate the type of QB he is now along with how he deals with the Miami D.

What say you?

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Interesting that you did it as a sum of the last three games, as it obfuscates the fact that the had 6 of those 9 TDs in one game (where he had a rating of 158.3). 3 TDs/2INTs in the other two games. That's subpar for Brady.

Let's also not forget, the 6 TD game was against a Dolphin team that was 1-15. An absolutely putrid team that year.

Of course, if you add one more point to the argument, the game at Miami in 2006 was one of Brady's worst games ever.

So in 3 of the last four games his line has been

12/25, 78 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, Loss
19/29, 352 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, Loss
19/24, 153 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, Win

4 wins, 5 losses in his career. 2-2 in his last 4 there.

His last three games have been statistically, among his best there, despite losing one of the three. The previous six, he had a rating below 80 in 5 of 6.

So, no, his struggles aren't overstated. Clearly he has struggled more there than most places. If you want to constrain it to a specific time period, then yes, he's struggled more at NY in recent years.


Added: Outside of the 2007 game Brady is 3-5 in Miami with a rating of 81.8, 12 TDs, 10 INTs.

SanAngeloState said:

It's usually hot and brutally humid down there and our boy wilt like a flower in the hot sun...oh well....maybe they'll win anyway, who knows.

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According to the weather forecast It's going to be high 70's at game time during the game with a slight shot of rain during the game. Should be better then a 4:00 game in the high 80's.

Lately it's been humid around here, and hot/warm until the last few days. Besides... Bill probably makes them practice in rubber sweat suits for hot weather games.

JJDChE said:

Interesting that you did it as a sum of the last three games, as it obfuscates the fact that the had 6 of those 9 TDs in one game (where he had a rating of 158.3). 3 TDs/2INTs in the other two games. That's subpar for Brady.

Let's also not forget, the 6 TD game was against a Dolphin team that was 1-15. An absolutely putrid team that year.

Of course, if you add one more point to the argument, the game at Miami in 2006 was one of Brady's worst games ever.

So in 3 of the last four games his line has been

12/25, 78 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, Loss
19/29, 352 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, Loss
19/24, 153 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, Win

4 wins, 5 losses in his career. 2-2 in his last 4 there.

His last three games have been statistically, among his best there, despite losing one of the three. The previous six, he had a rating below 80 in 5 of 6.

So, no, his struggles aren't overstated. Clearly he has struggled more there than most places. If you want to constrain it to a specific time period, then yes, he's struggled more at NY in recent years.


Added: Outside of the 2007 game Brady is 3-5 in Miami with a rating of 81.8, 12 TDs, 10 INTs.

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Yes he certainly has had some rougher games down there. Nice analysis/work.