OT - Since Brady accepted suspension Exponet lost $247M (16%) from valuation

[Dr Pain]

The day Brady accepted the suspension, July 15 their stock was $58.90 it closed yesterday at $49.42, around a 16% drop decreasing their valuation from $1,537,000,000 to $1,290,000,000. A drop of $247 million dollars while during the same period the NASDAQ average has gone up 4.46%. If Exponent had simply average performance of any company on NASDAQ since Brady accepted the suspension, they would have increased value by $68M not gone down by $247M.

Did their reputation take a hit when Brady took the suspension and the narrative turned almost completely against the NFL and this has cost the shareholders? Exponent tried to counter with that weak NYT whine article which never addressed the massive academic and scientific community criticism of their deflategate work.

For any company like them, their value is based on reputation. It has been said many times, they are hired to give the client the answer they wanted but if a jury knows this is their reputation, then their work will be potentially damaging to their client using them. Exponent had a big stock increase after the NFL won in court at the end of April. Could Exponent economists make a compelling case for this linkage if hired to do so? I think that is more probable than not.

 

[The Brandon Five]

 

[Haley]

Maybe they thought they would rake in more cash for some kind of ongoing reporting. With the suspension over there is nothing on the horizon for them.

 

[Dr Pain]

Maybe they thought they would rake in more cash for some kind of ongoing reporting. With the suspension over there is nothing on the horizon for them.

No, a company like this makes their money based on their impeccable scientific research which is used in court to support one side. If their reputation is damaged and known by the public, their work could be potentially hurtful to whoever hires them. They are reeling from the public perception change. This story is the perfect example Exponent Boasts About Correct DeflateGate Conclusions In Bizarre New York Times Feature Story

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Just Desserts Part 1

Still plenty more that needs to be served.

 

[grux]

I am shocked a company that works with Ted Wells would have issues with their stock getting taken to the woodshed.

 

[pazrul72]

Good.... good....let them burn

 

[neuronet]

Bankruptcy is too good for those shills. The word science should not be used in the same sentence, without a not.

 

[NashuaPats]

I'm surprised it hasn't dropped more. How can anyone take thm seriously. Even if jury members aren't familiar with this, lawyers going against them are going to bring it up and point out the briefing filed by the science professors and the claims made by Steve McIntyre and Robert Blecker.

 

[Dorito Dink]

I should have shorted these bastards as soon as the Wells Report was released. Could have made some nice cash

However, can't get too excited about an ******* company's stock price tanking. All it does is hurt their shareholders which are "more probable than not" average middle to upper middle class people like most of us here.

 

[Dr Pain]

I should have shorted these bastards as soon as the Wells Report was released. Could have made some nice cash

However, can't get too excited about an ******* company's stock price tanking. All it does is hurt their shareholders which are "more probable than not" average middle to upper middle class people like most of us here.

It hurts the people at Exponent who are major stock holders. I want Exponent to have to publicly deny that their massive stock drop is not tied to their shoddy work on deflategate for the NFL. This is hundreds of millions of dollars just flushed away. Think the guys who wrote that report are getting bonuses this year?

 

[The Gr8est]

The fact that this involved Brady and the NFL* for so long and was very much in the public consciousness is not going to work in Exponent's favor going forward.

 

[InRodWeRust]

I'm surprised it hasn't dropped more. How can anyone take thm seriously.

Roger Goodell, Ted Wells, Mark Brunell, Marshall Faulk, Kurt Warner and Chris Mortensen bought a bunch of extra shares.

 

[The Gr8est]

Roger Goodell, Ted Wells, Mark Brunell, Marshall Faulk, Kurt Warner and Chris Mortensen bought a bunch of extra shares.

That would be interesting if Goodell and his buddies did own shares of Exponent, and would be even more interesting if they divested themselves and when.

 

[Dorito Dink]

It hurts the people at Exponent who are major stock holders. I want Exponent to have to publicly deny that their massive stock drop is not tied to their shoddy work on deflategate for the NFL. This is hundreds of millions of dollars just flushed away. Think the guys who wrote that report are getting bonuses this year?

Probably not, but it's more probable than not that those cats were told what to write from executives who are in bed with the NFL/every other corp they are hired to substantiate their false claims. The hundreds of millions of dollars of market cap is flushed away mainly from the general public (through direct ownership or through a 401k). Stock options for employees make up a much smaller portion of the entire equity.

In regard to bonuses, it really doesn't matter how companies perform, executives will always get fat bonuses. Look no further than the financial companies who had to be bailed out by the public for tanking the stock market from their incompetence/greed yet they still received massive bonuses. I'd rather not have the little guy (in the company) and the general public be screwed because execs at the top are crooks.

 

[Ring 6]

More likely than not

 

[bbobbo]

The day Brady accepted the suspension, July 15 their stock was $58.90 it closed yesterday at $49.42, around a 16% drop decreasing their valuation from $1,537,000,000 to $1,290,000,000. A drop of $247 million dollars while during the same period the NASDAQ average has gone up 4.46%. If Exponent had simply average performance of any company on NASDAQ since Brady accepted the suspension, they would have increased value by $68M not gone down by $247M.

Did their reputation take a hit when Brady took the suspension and the narrative turned almost completely against the NFL and this has cost the shareholders? Exponent tried to counter with that weak NYT whine article which never addressed the massive academic and scientific community criticism of their deflategate work.

the price drop had nothing to do with brady accepting his suspension. EXPO reported Q2 earnings on july 19th after the close, and they missed the consensus estimate by $0.05 ($0.38 vs $0.45). the closing price on 7/19 was $58.40 (before the earnings announcement), and it closed $51.89 on 7/20, the day after the announcement.

whether this hurts them longer term is a different question. i tend to think not, since they're in a pretty diverse range of scientific and engineering consulting businesses. if their clients were retail customers, maybe this would affect them, but business clients tend to be less emotional about things like this. their estimated revenue for 2016 is $290M, so the deflategate report was a tiny part of their business.

For any company like them, their value is based on reputation. It has been said many times, they are hired to give the client the answer they wanted but if a jury knows this is their reputation, then their work will be potentially damaging to their client using them. Exponent had a big stock increase after the NFL won in court at the end of April. Could Exponent economists make a compelling case for this linkage if hired to do so? I think that is more probable than not.

View attachment 14460

View attachment 14461

i'm not seeing the price bounce at the end of april (the chart below is a little deceiving--the x-axis dividers occur at mid-month):

 

[Dr Pain]

the price drop had nothing to do with brady accepting his suspension. EXPO reported Q2 earnings on july 19th after the close, and they missed the consensus estimate by $0.05 ($0.38 vs $0.45). the closing price on 7/19 was $58.40 (before the earnings announcement), and it closed $51.89 on 7/20, the day after the announcement.

whether this hurts them longer term is a different question. i tend to think not, since they're in a pretty diverse range of scientific and engineering consulting businesses. if their clients were retail customers, maybe this would affect them, but business clients tend to be less emotional about things like this. their estimated revenue for 2016 is $290M, so the deflategate report was a tiny part of their business.

Your work is only a theory like the ideal gas law. The Colts balls did not deflate the same way and the NASDAQ went up by 4.43% during the same period that Exponent went down by 16%. Was there someone selling during their 93 second stop in the bathroom?

Now stop what you are doing bbobbo and do work like Exponent would if hired to. The reality is they have had a 16% decline since Brady accepted suspension while the NASDAQ went up 4.43%. It is more probable than not their shoddy deflategate work is to blame.

I want Exponent to deny this on their earnings call next week

 

[borg]

Maybe....TB12 reached an undisclosed settlement with Exponent knowing a dozen plus leading scientists were ready to support Brady in a damages lawsuit against Exponent.
I wish.
Looking at the EXPO chart....the stock price damage occurred the morning after Q2 earnings were released...a 5 cent miss....dropping the stock from $58 to $45 before settling at $49....and slowly fading since. Reading the Q2 summary, Exponent sounds like a company with somewhat erratic revenue due to dependence on big clients...and when projects end new streams must be found. The Wells Report work was very small potatoes for them in terms of revenue.
If....................TB12 had the resolve to clear his name, he should file suit against Exponent ( in Mass. ) and see what shakes out. An "Expert Witness" corporation surely wouldn't want their work dissected in front of a Mass. jury knowing a long list of "experts" will be lined up against them. And when the first domino falls, whether it be a settlement or a judgement for the plaintiff, TB12 should then set his sights on the NFL.
I wish.

PS....regarding Exponents "falling" credibility..... their business model remained successful after their voodoo tobacco science because there will always be two sides (or more) to every argument / case and like the NFL, you go where you know your desired conclusions will be validated (like MSNBC and Fox)
Besides.... 31 fanbases love Exponent's work.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I posted about this on the NYT site after the original article was published. I asked the author whether he didn't think he had an ethical obligation to reveal this as part of his story, which was basically an Infomercial for Exponent. For some reason, he didn't answer me.

The stock is still in the tank and has now dipped below $50 a share. Interestingly, Insiders have dumped 10.6% of total Insider-held shares since the summer.

96% of their shares are held by Institutions or Mutual Funds, so don't worry too much about grandma losing a lot of money. However, some of their employees aren't very happy. Awwww.

They have a couple of large institutional holders who can't be happy. Even though they are small potatoes in the big picture of things to the large houses, nobody likes to hold onto a stock that is losing their investors' money. So management is definitely feeling some heat.