IND's extra rest and why I wouldn't bet blowout

[Gronkowski123]

i dont expect a blow out.

not with our depleted secondary.

 

[mosslost]

Goodell is trying his weasley best to fix this game. Yesterday he pulled an assistant ref in Corrente's crew and replaced him with one of his "fixers". Just like last week and Blakeman's ridiculous penalty calls in the 1st quarter. I am writing this and posting it so it will be here for posterity and hopefully, proof that fans KNEW this scumbag Goodell was a dirty corporate criminal engaged in federal crimes with seeming impunity.

I actually think a blowout more likely when a superior team like the Patriots may suspect home town B.S. going on. You remove all doubt and risk through total destruction. The Colts are no match whatsoever against this Patriots team. I also think the Patriots never want to lose a game to these ass clowns on a Vinatieri kick, so they always go for the blow out.

Also, I strongly think that three additional preparation days for the idiot, crying after pathetic win, excuse making snot nosed coach and staff, against the Jorel/Darth Vader of NFL coaches will not matter one iota. The outcome of this game is not in question before it has even begun. The ten point spread is an easy bet in my opinion. And yes as another poster has said, the Pats winning by ten points would be a strange aberration compared to recent history and what current scenarios would predict.

In fact a ten point victory for the Pats in this game would likely be the catalyst for numerous "What is wrong with the Patriots? They can only beat this horrible Colts team by ten points" articles from every sports page in North America and Britain.

 

[Patriot Missile]

This is the same team that had a bye in week 10 before getting their doors blown out in week 11 by Jonas Gray and the Flemming formation. Lot of good that extra rest helped them.

Bye weeks are overrated, scheme, execute and outperform the other team and it doesn't matter if they had 3 weeks to prepare.

 

[wolverinejoe80]

trap was the last week. if boys had romo and dez, the score would've been very different.

this game? we will make the biggest statement of the season.

 

[reneluar]

I dont see a blowout, home team always has a chance, expect the colts adding fake crowd noise

 

[KDPPatsfan85]

Patriots and Brady are out for blood. We all know that the crybabies were the ones who caused us to lose a 1st and 4th draft pick, the scrutiny before the superbowl, and all offseason, on top of the 4 game suspension that Brady beat, better call PETA, bc what the Patriots will do to the Dolts, will make what Vick did a misdemeanor.

 

[DaBruinz]

I would love for the Patriots to break the record for most points scored in a game by one team..

 

[everlong]

Pats were playing a Bengals team coming off the bye last year and they had to play Monday night and on six days rest and had gotten their doors blown off. Conventional wisdom is usually wrong.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Lots of valid reasons that point to a double digit victory (line is up to -10 in many books, and may go up another .5 or whole point by kickoff).

My main concerns would be the recent negative trends regarding our record in: 1) back to back road games, where we've only won both twice in the past nine attempts, and 2) the poor record vs. the spread when giving -10 plus points, which I believe is now up to 3-9 in the past 12 situations, after the JAX game at home in week #3.

Overall, I don't dispute what you're saying in the least. I will simply try and find another game or two where there may be better value--or so I like to think

Damn Sup, you one upped me on digging up betting info trends . The back to back road games is a worthy consideration for betting for sure. I really liked your/the article's point on betting against CW. Reading the mood swings of the public psyche is a gold mine for earnings (I learned that on stocks too)....

And as mentioned I completely agree with you on avoiding betting on those things your emotionally vested in. But here is where I completely go counter to that , I tell ya, if I had the guts I'd take my home line credit and bet 100k on the Patriots. That's how over confident I feel that they will wipe the floor with Indy. ((if they don't JHC thank god I didn't place the bet or thank god for bankruptcy court).

 

[shmessy]

Patriots and Brady are out for blood. We all know that the crybabies were the ones who caused us to lose a 1st and 4th draft pick, the scrutiny before the superbowl, and all offseason, on top of the 4 game suspension that Brady beat, better call PETA, bc what the Patriots will do to the Dolts, will make what Vick did a misdemeanor.

Yeah, but that thin secondary of ours...........

 

[Ring 6]

i dont expect a blow out.

not with our depleted secondary.

we are missing one guy who only played 2 games. how is that depleted?

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

This injury happened on Thursday. He was limited in Practice on Friday. And back at full practice today..

DB, you know Joker is rabidly anti Goodell and should expect he will see the nefarious side in anything the Reich Chancellor does. No need to call that out

Of course pre Defamaegate I thought Joker was on too much coffee (while always believing Joke was one of the good guys and the godfather of Patriot fans). However, Post Defamegate and the eye opening walk to knowledge that came with it for me, I think Joker's default to believe the worst in everything Goodell is a bullseye. The skepticism may not prove correct every time but it is a well grounded default given everything that crumb has done to Brady, the Patriots as well as Peyton, some of the Saints players et al....
(and I would be remiss in not giving a shout out to Deus -- he was also one of the few consistently rang the bell on Goodell's EffedUp actions and what it could mean).

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

we are missing one guy who only played 2 games. how is that depleted?

Agreed.
I certainly see what others see: our secondary is thin and it would be better to have Brown active. Yet Brown missing the game shouldn't ultimately be of significance. Put another way, if his absence is the difference between a Dallas type performance versus a 4th quarter against Buffalo performance, Brown is one very seriously underpaid and under appreciated player that every team seems to have overlooked.

IMHO the totality of the Patriots D is their strength (at least so far). To use 2011 as a benchmark, the 2011 Patriots were thin in the secondary and also thin everywhere else. The 2015 secondary is thin but we're looking quite better elsewhere. This in itself can/will allow for a lesser secondary to play decently while they and the whole team works its way toward December/playoff form.

IMHO one of the most overlooked/under valued pass defense stats are hurries. It takes only a handful of extra hurries a game to see a noticeable improvement in the pass defense's production. And while I do not know what the Patriots stats on hurries are -- I'm basing this on my own sketchy observations -- it appears the Patriots are forcing quite a few more throws earlier than the QB wants (I think this is key for our secondary as it currently sits). While in 2011 a QB often had enough time to order room service while he waited for a receiver to get open.

 

[SVN]

This whole 50/60 pt game talk bothers me. The game has a funny way of reminding others about its unpredictability. Happens every week.

 

[mosslost]

Patriots and Brady are out for blood. We all know that the crybabies were the ones who caused us to lose a 1st and 4th draft pick, the scrutiny before the superbowl, and all offseason, on top of the 4 game suspension that Brady beat, better call PETA, bc what the Patriots will do to the Dolts, will make what Vick did a misdemeanor.

This!

 

[JMC00]

we are missing one guy who only played 2 games. how is that depleted?

Ya people are really misusing the word "thin" and "depleted" on here. Thin and depleted would be if 3 CBs were all out injured. Pats as of right now have 4 CBs and McCourty has been playing a little bit of it in certain situations.


If you want to say the CB spot is lacking established quality, ok. But the spot isn't depleted.

 

[SVN]

moncrief and hilton are going to be challege. Even the colts are sick and tired of the pats beating them up so they are going to come in fired up. Plus flux in our LT position with mathis being back this yr is not going to be an easy game. We need to ride the early wave of their emotion and the crowd and adjust. Its going to be a close game.

 

[Gronkowski123]

we are missing one guy who only played 2 games. how is that depleted?

youre confident about our corners/??

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

Not hearing too much about this.

Against common wisdom, I think IND's mostly overlooked extra 3 day's rest will keep this game tighter than anticipated. Both from a pure physical restfulness and the mercurial game preparation standpoint it's a pretty big advantage for a team with extra days off in these situations. Also don't forget, IND gets that advantage on top of playing a back-to-back time zone travelling slightly banged up NE team as well.

When the schedule came out I thought this game might be tougher than the simplistic "Oh boy, chalk up a blowout! Pats gonna get even with these snitches and break some scoring records doing it!" mantra we kept hearing all off-season and until now. And a convenient scheduling quirk for IND, no? The conspiracy theorist in me thinks the NFL set it up on purpose, shuffling a few games around, just to give IND an added bit of extra help... but that could be a whole other topic.

Anyway, hope NE can overcome, cuz -I- sure as heck wanna see a blowout and put some stitches in those snitches. But if they struggle a bit early, this could very well be the reason.

But what does it all mean you ask? Simple really...

IT'S A TRAP!!!!
dummies.

(Also going to bet IND to cover -not win, calm down- and the under). First half at least.

Mods: Feel free to merge.

Feel free to post back after the game. Bring your knife and fork

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

Joker - I know your hatred of Goodell runs deep, but you really should do some research before going off on everything that Goodell does and blasting him for it. The Assistant Ref that was pulled from Corrente's crew happened to be the one that screwed up the batted ball call in the Seattle/Detroit game..

Report: Referee Who Blew Batted Ball Call Taken Off Patriots-Colts Game

Now, maybe you're right. Maybe Goodell put a "Fixer" on the crew. But what proof do you have that they did anything other than replace an official that was mired in controversy?

Just to be fair to Joker, I think that ref was not suspended, but was assigned to a "less high profile" game. Which, to me, sounds a little fishy. And to think that the MFL is not biased and out to get the Pats, Just take a look at their co-conspirators, BSPN and their constant Twitter digs.