11-29-2010, 12:04 AM
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#13
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Third String But Playing on Special Teams
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 579
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Re: Brady haters just getting sad now...
Here's an on-topic little dialog I'm having with the Pro Football Focus guys:
Me:
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OK, I’m dying to know what rating system you’re using that rates Brady so low. By both NFL passer rating and the Football Outsiders DVOA system, Brady is the top rated QB in the league (by a lot via DVOA). If the Patriot’s were 2-9 or being carried by their defense or by extraordinary skill position players, maybe I could understand. But they’re not, i.e the offense is doing well. So what gives?
You mention something about “dinking and dunking” is somehow downgraded in your system. Can you explain how? Are you giving QB’s no credit for YAC? Are you considering a 10 yard pass over the middle to be a longer completion than a 7 yard out? Do you downgrade the whole NE offense because of the style of passing it does, or do you only downgrade the QB? If it’s only the QB that’s downgraded, then where does the credit for the system go? To the coaches?? If the Patriots are indeed a good offense with a mere system QB, then why doesn’t the whole NFL copy the system if it doesn’t require an elite QB?
I like your site — I liked it a lot more before the pay wall, in particular because you publish per-play ratings of non-skill positions. But you must know you come under a lot of criticism, even ridicule, for some of the startling contrarian ratings you come to,
Which is not say you’re wrong.
Bu thow about removing some of the opacity and discussing your rating system. Or at least give us some reason to trust you by running through an example, like specifics of what it is that has you rating Brady so poorly when other rating systems say he is the best QB this year.
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Them:
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I run the site and have been a football writer for 15 years, but I don’t do the grading. I’ve gone back and forth with the guys on Brady this year, and I’ll say this — they’re not trying to be contrarian, just calling them as they see them. Every player gets a grade on every play for what he does, positive and negative, on a scale of -2 to +2.
I’m sure they’ll comment as well, but looking at the numbers, Brady does throw an inordinate amount of his balls short — probably the least of any top QB. 64 percent of his dropbacks result in passes less than 10 yards, compared to Rivers (52 percent), Eli Manning (54.4 percent), Peyton Manning (58.2 percent) and Ryan (55.1).
No one is saying that Brady isn’t an elite QB, but he’s also just starting to play great football after a sluggish run. You can’t discount three so-so games against San Diego, Minnesota and Cleveland.
As to the MVP, I agree that he’s a very good candidate — 9-2 + efficient QB + no other real stars = MVP candidate, for sure. But the Patriots’ offense is extremely well-coordinated and coached, as well, the running backs and line are well above average — the cupboard isn’t bare around him.
I’d say I’d vote Belichick Coach of the Year (HANDS DOWN!) but Brady maybe No.2 or 3 in MVP behind Rivers.
And check this out on our grading:
Grading | ProFootballFocus.com
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..and...
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The thing that we do, that nobody else does, it add in an element of difficulty of throw into simple raw statistics. So say Brady throws for 400 yards, but they came on 10 screens to a HB, all thrown behind the line of scrimmage, all without a defender near the HB, all taken 40 yards by a HB making moves on top of moves. Any raw stat you look at will say Brady did an amazing job on those 10 plays, but in reality he made 10 throws you would expect any QB to make.
Obviously that isn’t happening, but I’m generating an extreme example to make the point. On the other hand you could have a guy throw for the same yardage, the same number of throws etc, but each one required a pin-point pass into tight coverage to beat the man. Now this QB obviously performed much better than the first guy, but simple stats wouldn’t reflect that.
Our grading is very detailed and complex, so it’s not correct to simply say a QB gets no credit for YAC, because there are certain situations that they can (a throw that leads a receiver to YAC that earns a first down where a poorer throw would have resulted in him being stopped short for example), but it’s certainly true to say that the difficulty of the throw becomes a big thing for our grading, which is why we differ from results gained simply by metrics. Brady is putting together a statistically excellent season, but he is doing so by making throws that you would expect any reasonable QB to make for the most part. IMO this season Brady’s numbers are far more about the system that NE are running with their offense than they are about Brady’s play.
When he has a game in which he makes tough throws like this Lions game, he gets a big grade, he just hasn’t had to do it most of the season
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Pretty illuminating. I just replied thusly:
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Interesting approach, but obviously a dangerous one. How do you know that degree of difficulty of throws correlates with winning at all? Seems like a risk/reward efficient curve is likely operant. Brady is of course notable through his career for a very high TD/INT ratio — at the moment it’s 23/4. Both TD’s and INTS directly correlate with winning. If Brady is maximizing this ratio by making the a safer throw that accomplishes a TD, your assigning a higher score if he had chosen a more difficult throw suggests you might have aspects of your rating system that negatively correlate with success, i.e. winning. The Football Outsiders system of heavily weighs successful results, i.e plays that result in scores or first downs (etc), and penalizes actions that correlate with failure. In this sense FO’s system seems an inherently more objective system than what you describe, which seems to be more a style-points-based approach. You need to demonstrate that your system correlates with football success. If the Patriot’s offensive success cannot be attributed to Brady — or any other players, according to your ratings — then it must be coaching or luck. If you so believe, quantify those factors as well.
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You can find the thread over here:
Re-Focused: Week 12, Patriots at Lions | ProFootballFocus.com
Please visit them and consider commenting there. I have a lot of respect for the huge labor of love involved by the PFF guys, and I'd love to see them tighten up their system. But as it stands, it's a great example of how long lived the "Brady is just a system quarterback" meme has been...
Last edited by Kasmir; 11-29-2010 at 01:27 AM..
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