supafly

I may be incorrect, but I think if you are not successful with the onside kick it may count as a possession, therefore you wouldn't be able to match them.

Maybe someone else knows 100% for sure?

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supafly

Oops, should have backread first, I see you covered that already...sorry.

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Wax Frog

Give me the modern equivalent of the '85 Bears D and I'd defer every time

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ivanvamp

This is the correct answer, unless perhaps your team is like the 2000 Ravens, which had an offense that could barely muster a 40 yard drive, but which had an absolutely monstrous defense. Then, you kick away, stop the other team on a 3-and-out, and get the ball back at around your own 40. You just need to drive 30 or so yards to have a shot at the win.

But otherwise, take the ball, go down, score a TD, and don't even give the other team a chance.

SoCal Bong

Some of you may remember that I posed the question after last year's Broncos-Steelers playoff game as to whether the Broncos strategically made the wrong choice. A strong majority were of the opinion that I was dead wrong and it wasn't even close. To make it interesting, I even made a wager with neuronet that within the next 50 OT games, a coach would not elect to receive (forget "defer"; that's not an option in OT). We then reduced it to 10 games since 50 would take too long to settle and I ended up losing and made $25 donations each to patsfans.com and the NEP Charitable Foundation which I am happy to support anyway.

I am very happy to read this analysis and see that my ideas are actually supported and that in some situations, the right decision is to pick a side of the field or kick.

Most people who don't understand this are oversimplifying the idea that a TD on the first possession can win you the game so that's all there is to it. If you apply that philosophy to the rest of the game, then you would also advocate never punting. "Why would you punt when your next play could be a TD?" A little extreme but the point is that you have to consider the percentage probability of each outcome, not just the best case scenario.

If it's so easy to score a TD on the first possession, then why did it only happen 3 times out of 22 OT games (13%) this past season? The kicking team ended up winning on the 2nd possession 6 times (double!) so do you still believe that receiving the kick off is such an easy path to victory? Of course this is a small sample size and no coach has yet embraced this strategy enough to elect to pick a side of the field or kick but it is coming and I hope that BB is among the first to do it.

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Steve:Section 102

Kacsmar writes:
Seems you'd really want to be the team that scores last in regulation AND wins the coin toss.

Either way, if I am coaching...gimme the ball.

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Halifax_Pats_Fan

I think with a proven D, i would take the ball. With this team, do you trust them enough to give the ball to a Flacco or Manning on our defense??

Our D IS improving but I don't think we are there yet.

I would take that ball and my chances and place them on the bread and butter of this team.

IMHO

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It is what it is - BB

Skeeter712

You should automatically take the ball and try to get a TD. No other arguments. You either have the ball trying to score or you do not.

BananaRepublican

A neat onside kick would be to rocket it off some guy's helmet right back to yourself and then to run it all the way for six. What would you call it though? A kick six? A trick six? A sixy tricksy? Rexy would like that (after he gets back from sun tanning himself in the Bermuda Triangle.)