11-19-2012, 07:46 AM
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2nd Team Getting Their First Start
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 1,819
My Mood:
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Overtime strategy (kickoff or receive) bet settled: congrats patsfans
Back when they changed the rules, there was a long thread, started by SoCalBong, discussing all the new strategy that would go into deciding whether to receive:
Did Denver make a strategic mistake by electing to receive in OT? I think so
After a bunch of discussion on this topic, I wrote:
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People on the internet will write a lot about hypothetical situations about when you might want to not receive. In practice, 100% of coaches will always receive with the new OT rules. Once we have enough examples bearing this out the discussion will be about why, not whether, the internet commentariat was wrong.
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To which Bong replied:
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Time to put your money where your mouth is.
If under the current OT and kick off rules a single coach ever elects to kick off within in the next 50 (fifty) opportunities once or more then I win. If all 50 of the next opportunities result in the coin toss winning team choosing to receive then you win. If these OT rules are expanded to the regular season then those OT games will count as well. The first time a team elects to kick, I win; in other words we don’t have to wait for the 50 opportunities to pass. You don’t win until all 50 have passed and no team ever chooses to kick off.
If the OT or kick off rules change before a single team chooses to kick off or before 50 OT games occur then the bet is off.
The stakes will be a $50 donation to Patsfans.com and $50 donation to the New England Patriots Charitable Foundation ($100 total).
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And I took up the gauntlet, but lowered the stakes a bit:
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I like the cut of your jib.
It's on.
How about we make it the next ten games? That will still likely take 20 years to show I am right. After all, it is just in playoff games that this can even happen!
100 bucks is a bit too much money for me (while I think the most likely scenario is 100% receive, that doesn't mean I assign that outcome a probability of 1.0 ). How about 25 bucks to each Patsfans/Charity for a 50 dollar total?
I am good for my word, I think as fellow Patriots fans we should trust each other, but I'd post an image to the receipt of me paying.
No coach in his right mind will elect to kick.
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To which Bong agreed:
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Firstly, thank you for taking my proposal with a good attitude; I wasn't sure how it was going to be taken.
$50 ($25 + $25) is fine.
The next ten OT games played under the current playoff rules is fine too. If they don't extend these rules to the regular season then it will take awhile regardless.
To clarify the criteria, if any of those 10 coin toss winning teams do not explicitly elect to receive (they choose to kick or side of the field) then I win. Choosing a side of the field is indirectly saying that receiving the ball is not of the highest importance.
I'm also fine with our reputations as loyal Pats fans is enough to ensure that the loser pays.
I'm not highly confident that someone will make this decision within 10 games (most coaches behave lemming-like especially where new scenarios are involved) but it will be fun to see how it plays out win or lose.
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Congrats, Patsfans, I think we just passed 10 games total since this bet was made. I have to rush off to work but will track down the games etc sometime today if nobody else does.
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Ice_Ice_Brady writes:
The difference is that Brady calmly calls audibles while Manning flaps like a chicken, barks 11 code words, and makes sure every camera in the stadium has documented his once-in-a-generation (and patented, I believe) ability to see a defensive formation and change the play. Both have the same effect, but Manning transcends measurable human intellect while Brady merely chooses a different play.
Last edited by neuronet; 11-19-2012 at 07:47 AM..
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