mayoclinic

From ESPN:

NFL Rumors - NFL Trade Rumors, Free Agency Rumors and More - Rumor Central - ESPN

I'm not so sure it will happen (and the Pats probably wouldn't be interested, anyway, between McClain's off-field issues and their current glut at the LB position), but it's another good example of how quickly the mighty can fall. Aaron Curry was traded last year (ironically to the Raiders) after being taken #4 in 2009. McClain went #8 in 2010, and was a board favorite:

*The Official Draft Rolando McClain warwagon!*

Another example of how all that glitters isn't necessarily gold.

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kurtinelson

I can't believe what a bust Aaron Curry is. IIRC he was considered one of the safest picks in the draft.

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Snake Eyes

Why would the Raiders cut a thug/criminal? He fits right in there.

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Sciz

Not anymore. New GM came from Green Bay, and it shows.

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The Gr8est

No, like Aaron Curry, I think the Raiders can squeeze a draft pick out of someone.

He's the shiny kind of name that the Rats would love. They love to collect highly drafted rejects from other teams.

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mayoclinic

My interest in posting this was not in whether the Raiders keep, trade or cut McLain. Nor would I be interested in him for the Pats. But it's interesting to me how quickly and how far so-called "elite" prospects can fall. Neither guy dealt with injuries. Both passed every pre-draft test, and got enormous contracts unde the old CBA. And both are meh at best. It shows the folly of getting too caught up on the draft hype and over-fixating on supposed "blue chip" prospects.

Look at the top 10 from almost every draft. Over 50% grossly underperform:


2001: David Terrell, Koran Robinson, the DE from Florida St.
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Roy Williams
2003: Charles Rogers, DeWayne Robertson, Jonathan Sullivan
2004: Roy Williams
2005: PacMan Jones, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams
2006: Vince Young, Michael Huff, Ernie Sims, Matt Leinart
2007: JaMarcus Russell, Gaines Adams, Ted Ginn, Amobi Okoye
2008: Vernon Gholston, Derek Harvey, Keith Rivers
2009: Jason Smith, Tyson Jackson, Aaron Curry, Andre Smith, Darius Heyward-Bey, Michael Crabtree
2010: Rolando McLain

And those are just the biggest busts. There's an equal number who have turned out to be "meh" at best given their high draft status (Glenn Dorsey, Robert Gallery, Mark Sanchez, etc.)

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

patchick

So, there's a 50% leaguewide whiff rate for the top 10 overall picks?

Interesting perspective, since we keep hearing on this board about how the Patriots have an ABYSMAL 2nd-round record, with a whopping 50% whiff rate for that round (and a mere 20% of 2nd rounders under BB ever making an All-Pro roster).

ZoisKing

My guess would be that 50% of that 50% is made up of QBs and RBs.

patchick

Mayo named names above -- only 5 of his 31 were QBs, no RBs.

mayoclinic

It depends how you define "whiff rate". Not everyone bombs as spectacularly as JaMarcus Russell. But the top 10 are supposed to be the "surest things" in the draft and are expected to become "impact players". So while I don't know that you can say that #5 picks AJ Hawk, Levi Brown, Glenn Dorsey and Mark Sanchez are busts, none of them came anywhere close to living up to their lofty draft status or their large rookie contracts.

Maybe another way to look at it is what percentage of the top 10 picks actually become "impact players":

2001: Michael Vick, Justin Smith, LaDanian Tomlinson and Richard Seymour.
2002: Julius Peppers. Bryant McKinnie and John Henderson are borderline. (Note: I forgot to mention busts Ryan Sims and Mike Williams in my earlier list.)
2003: Carson Palmer, Andre Johnson, Jordan Gross, Kevin Williams, Terrell Suggs.
2004: Eli Manning, Larry Fitzgerald, Philip Rivers. Sean Taylor might have gotten there if not for his early death.
2005: None. (Note: I omitted Alex Smith and Braylon Edwards as relative busts from my earlier list - neither came close to impacting at the level expected of the #1 and #3 picks.)
2006: Mario Williams. D'Brickashaw Ferguson is borderline, though one can argue that he wasn't even the best lineman taken by the Jets in that draft.
2007: Joe Thomas, Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson. (Note: I left Jamaal Anderson off the list of busts in my earlier list.)
2008: Jake Long, Matt Ryan and Jerod Mayo. Chris Long is borderline.
2009: Matt Stafford and BJ Raji.
2010: Probably too early to tell, but Sam Bradford, Ndamukong Suh and Eric Berry look good so far. (Note: I left Gerald McCoy off the list of possible busts, though again, it's still too early to judge this group.)

So over a 10 year period that's about 24 impact players, or 30 if you count the borderline guys, which works out to about 3/year or a 30% chance of landing an impact player in the top 10. Against that I count at least 30 "busts" over the same period and probably more, depending on your threshhold for calling a player a bust and how quickly we judge some of the 2010 players. And the other 30% falls into the "meh" category. Reggie Bush wasn't a bust in the Charles Rogers class, but he sure as heck didn't live up to his #2 overall pick hype.

Not particularly impressive for the "surest things" in the draft.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi