Re: Name the chance the following players drop to 7 and the chance they pats draft th
I actually started evaluating all the likely permutations...
JLong, Dorsey, Ryan, McFadden, Clady, Gholston
JLong, Dorsey, Ryan, Ellis, Clady, McFadden
JLong, Dorsey, Ryan, Ellis, Clady, Gholston
JLong, Dorsey, Ryan, McFadden, Albert, Gholston
... to figure out the odds. I quickly found some patterns.
- JLong will not get past St Louis.
- In no situation did I ever have Dorsey dropping past #4. Oakland is desperate for a DT and will not pass on him.
- CLong drops to #7 in situations where two of Ryan, Ellis, Clady and Albert are taken in the top-6. And it also assumes that the Jets would choose Gholston or McFadden over Long. Theoretically possible, but is that really realistic?
- Ryan could go #3, #5, #7 (in a trade), but never past Baltimore at #8.
- McFadden could go #4 or #6, and if he drops to #7 someone like Dallas will trade up for him.
- Gholston is a good bet for Oakland, and rarely gets past #6. Only in the few situations where both Gholston and McFadden are available to the Jets does he drop to the Pats. The draft would have to go something like Long - Dorsey - Ryan - Long - Clady in the top 5.
Even better would be Long - Dorsey - Ryan - Ellis - Clady, because then the Jets are looking at CLong, Gholston and McFadden, and we'll have the choice of at least one game breaking OLB.
IMO, Chance of lasting to #7:
Jake Long - 0%
Glenn Dorsey - 0%
Chris Long - 5%
Matt Ryan - 60%
Vernon Gholston - 30%
Darren McFadden - 30%
Sedrick Ellis - 80%
Ryan Clady - 90%
"We want to build a big, strong, tough, smart, fast, disciplined football team that will consistently compete for a championship."
-- Scott Pioli, from the Patriots scouting manual