RussFrancis

Sedrick Ellis seems to be the key to our draft. If we're hoping one of the top guys on our board will slide, we'll need Oakland or KC to pick him. Or if we're looking for a value trade down, we'll need him to slide to us and work a deal with Cinci, New Orleans or one of the other interested teams looking for a young stud DT. It seems either way, the FO will have options and be ready to roll with the draft day punches.

Warren94

It should be interesting on draft day to say the least.

BelichickFan

I would be stunned if we traded up from 7 to 3.

I expect the Falcons to take Dorsey if he's there but, if not then I expect Ryan. Barring a trade down I don't see a better pick for them given that they need an actual talent at the game's most important position.

BradyToMoss

BelichickFan, the black and white have 3 2's to play with. Flacco, Brohm and others are to be had at a much higher value later in the round than taking Matt Ryan #3 overall. Passing on talent like CLong/Gholston/DMac/Ellis to take Matt Ryan at #3 when you can grab a Flacco/Brohm/Henne (not much of a drop off from Ryan at 1/10 of the cost of the value than if you were to take him at #3), is a given with Dimitroff.

If I'm Dimitroff, and he likes Matt Ryan that much, then there's no question he calls the Pats with Gholston/Chris Long on the board, he could still grab Ryan at 7 and rape us our 2 and 4 which would give them 4 - 2cond round draft picks AND MATT RYAN. He's an idiot if he didn't explore that.

BelichickFan

Well, we'll see. I don't think they want to put the future of the franchise in one of those guys. The only thing that's a given is that nothing is a given.

PatsDparty

Unless they are absolutely in love with chris long or gholston, I can't see them moving up to the #3 spot. The cost of signing a player in that spot is just too expensive. However (I thought I heard theres a good drop of in salary b/t the 4th and 5th pick, but I could be wrong), if C. Long and Gholston make it by the Raider, I could see them moving up to #5 if there's one player of the two that they rate definitively higher than the other, and would not want the Jets to get.

Considering I've heard nothing about the Pats having interest in C. Long, that's probably the guy that they like the most haha.

BradyToMoss

My fear is our beloved Jets and The Rat screwing us again by having Matt Ryan fall into their laps and having them deal with the likes of Baltimore/Carolina to get their (trade-down Extra 2) instead of us. Yet, if that happens, think about it, that would push one of the following players down to us at 7, assuming Jake Long and Dorsey go 1/2 and Ellis at 5, and Ryan at 6, we would have our pick of ONE the following studs who would fall to us:

(DMac, Gholston, Chris Long) WAHOOOOOOOOOOO !!!!!!

Is there a better day than that Saturday in late April, I can't think of one.

JoeSixPat

It would have to be a swap of seconds as someone else said - that would have the value approaching the 200 points difference between #10 and #7.

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Metaphors

There seems to be a consensus around this draft having 6 "elite" players: JLong, Dorsey, Ryan, McFadden, CLong and Gholston. I would add Ellis to this list to give the Pats their working list (assuming they don't trade up):

JLong
Likely: #1
Floor: #5 (not in play)

Dorsey
Likely: #2
Floor: #5 (not in play)

Ryan
Likely: #3
Floor: #8
Partners: Carolina #13, Chicago #14
Reading: Possible but may have to give a discount in trade

McFadden
Likely: #4
Floor: #12
Partners: Denver #12, Chicago #14, Detroit #15 (and others)
Reading: Likely with Detroit being the prime target

CLong
Likely: #4 - #7
Floor: #9
Partners: Minn #17 (and others)
Reading: Possible but may have to give a discount in trade

Gholston
Likely: #6 - #7
Floor: #9
Partners: Tampa #20, SF #29
Reading: Possible but no real opportunities in prime range (#10 - #15)

Ellis
Likely: #5 - #7
Floor: #9
Partners: Cincy #9, NO #10, Denver #12, Carolina #13 (and others)
Reading: Likely with lots of interested parties bidding against each other

So I evaluate the trade possibilities in this order:
McFadden = Best fit to Detroit for #15 and #45
Ellis = Lots of potential partners
Ryan = Partners may be willing to wait for 2nd tier QBs
CLong = Unless Minn bites, cost too high for interested teams to trade up
Gholston = Tweener with no 3-4 teams in prime trade range

So I would agree with your assessment of Ellis being the key at #7, but only if McFadden doesn't slip.

Warren94

Minnesota is supposedly in love with Harvey which is fine with me...